China’s recent struggle with Covid-19, for example — fueled by its low vaccine rate — and its repressive locking downs could once again cause disruptions in global supply chains that helped push up inflation. The war in Ukraine could have a significant impact on Europe’s harvest this year. Americans could see their daily staples prices rise as the invasion country is a major source of global grain supply and sunflower oil.
It’s possible that the difficult conditions that are currently depressing Democrats could get worse before Election Day.
Inflation is hammering Democratic midterm goals
All of this explains why Washington’s conventional wisdom holds that Republicans are strongly favored for retaking the House of Representatives, while the Senate could go to red.
These numbers show the fundamental weakness of Democrats’ case as they move towards the midterm elections. Biden cannot take credit for the strong recovery of the economy from the pandemic, historically high job numbers, and the strong rebound in the economy’s stockpile because millions of Americans are disgruntled at the high prices.
Biden’s win over Donald Trump in 2020 was a prime example of the power that comparisons can bring. After the chaos, scandals, lies and chaos of the White House for the past four years, Biden offered calm leadership.
The 2022 midterms will be a referendum upon the President and Democrats. They control all the political power in Washington, and therefore have the ability to sway the public’s discontent.
Although Biden’s overall approval rating for his job rose to 42%, only 38% voted for his economic management. 68% disapprove of his record regarding inflation. This issue was particularly bothersome for independent voters, who will be crucial in close House-Senate races in November.
White House misfires
The President’s current inflation woes have been made worse by the White House’s previous statements that the heat up in prices is “transitory”. This messaging error threatens to undermine the trust voters have in administration pronouncements, and it offers Republicans an easy target.
Biden has taken many steps to reduce high prices, including programs that unblock US ports and clear the supply chain. He has also released millions of barrels from the nation’s strategic reserve, but his efforts have not had an obvious impact on the lives and daily lives of many Americans. It is not clear that Biden has been able to blame the rising cost of living on Putin’s price rise.
“Nobody wants this to be said. They want to hear, “Hey, how will you get us out of this?”
According to the Times report, “Voters don’t feel he has any plan to address the border situation,” John Anzalone (Biden’s lead pollster) and his team wrote in a memo.
Biden takes a dump on his own approval rating
In this setting, Biden stood up in a ballroom at the Washington Hilton hotel and quipped: “A special Thanks to the 42% of You Who Applauded.” I’m thrilled to be here tonight with the Americans with a lower approval rate than me.
It was a sign of one of the many successes of Biden’s presidency, the rollout of vaccines that has allowed many Americans to regain some sense of normal life two years after Covid-19 shattered the economy and changed America. Biden can also be credited for a rare bipartisan triumph, an infrastructure law that was elusive to his predecessors. His leadership was a key factor in forming a Western response to the Russian invasion, which may have helped mitigate some political damage from last year’s chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
These achievements are not popular or the White House fails to weave them together into an election narrative. Biden’s enormous social spending and climate plans have been hampered by moderate Democratic Senators. The sense of drift has been heightened by Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona.
Whether Biden was wrong in pushing a broad reform agenda that some critics claimed was not implied in his 2020 election campaign or whether the White House failed to sell items such as home health care for the aged and pre-kindergarten education under the huge Build Back Better bill, Biden was denied the big win on a measure once compared to President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal,
It remains to be seen if Biden’s plan is implemented. Time is running out before the midterm election dominates the political season. The deadlock is likely to dampen enthusiasm among Democratic Base voters in November while the Republican Party is running campaign rooted on extreme positions on issues such as trans rights and immigration. This campaign will help them to get more committed voters. These themes are being repackaged by the GOP to appeal to more moderate voters.
Warren’s comments were more than a hint that there was a post election blame game seven months before voters go on the polls. They don’t change that the small Democratic majority in the 50-50 Senate doesn’t mean Biden has the technical capability to force many of his agendas into law.
