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A wildfire in Louisville Colorado in December 2021Jeremy Sparig/Colorado Sun/Zuma
This story was first published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
A new report warns that wildfires that have decimated California, Australia, and Siberia will increase in frequency by 50% by the end of this century.
According to UN reports involving more than 50 international researchers, the escalating climate crisis as well as land-use change are driving an increase in wildfires worldwide. A 14% increase is predicted by 2030, and a 30% increase by 2050.
These findings suggest that there should be a drastic change in public spending on wildfires. According to the report, governments are focusing too much on emergency services work when preventing wildfires would be more effective.
According to the report, wildfires have become an accepted part of daily life on every continent except Antarctica. They are destroying the environment and infrastructure, wildlife, and human health. The report warned of a “dramatic shift in fire regimes worldwide”.
“From Australia to Canada, the United States to China, across Europe and the Amazon, wildfires are wreaking havoc on the environment, wildlife, human health and infrastructure,” the foreword of the report said, adding that while the situation “is certainly extreme, it is not yet hopeless.”
Although “landscape fires” are essential for some ecosystems to function properly, the report looks specifically at “wildfires”, which it defines as unusual free-burning vegetation fires that pose a risk society, the economy or environment. This month, researchers found global heating could cause “megafires resistant to fire-suppression practices” in southern California. Nearly 3m hectares (7.7ma) of US land were destroyed by wildfires in the US last year. The blazes are becoming more difficult to control.
Direct responses to wildfires get more than 50% of the funding, while planning and prevention receive less than 1%. The paper calls for a “fire-ready formula” with investments rebalanced so half goes on planning, preventing and preparedness, about a third on response and 20% for recovery.
Prof. Sally Archibald, an ecologist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, who was involved in the report, said: “This is a really important conclusion that I hope diverts money and resources in the right direction, as well as changing policies.
“We cannot promise that if the world gives money for proactive fire management, there will be no more extreme fire events because these fires are caused by global climate change,” she said. “But it would certainly help us minimize the impact and minimize the loss of damage.”
There are many natural solutions, including starting controlled fires using prescribed burning, managing landscapes by grazing animals to reduce the amount of flammable material in the landscape, as well as removing trees too close to people’s homes.
There should be more science-based monitoring systems combined with indigenous knowledge and better international cooperation, the paper’s authors said, ahead of the UN Environment Assembly in Nairobi.
“After a century of research we’ve come around to agreeing that how people burn their landscapes traditionally in Africa is probably the most appropriate for the ecosystem,” said Archibald.
Globally, fire-management strategies are different. However, experts agree that ecosystems closer the equator should have less controlled fires and those further away should have more. There are exceptions, however, such as tropical forests such the Amazon that lie near the equator but should have very few fires.
“It’s not a one-size-fits-all situation. Fire is like rainfall – you get different types of fire in different parts of the world,” said Archibald.
Wildfires have made the climate crisis worse by destroying carbon-rich ecosystems like forests and permafrost. They also make the landscape more flammable. The restoration of ecosystems like wetlands and peatlands can help prevent fires and create buffers in the landscape.
Climate change is increasing the risk of wildfires starting, with more drought, high temperatures, and strong winds. Wildfires also contribute to an increase in carbon emissions. The report stated that wildfire prevention must be a top priority.
It also recommended that firefighters be subject to better safety and health standards, including raising awareness about the dangers of inhaling smoke, reducing their exposures to life-threatening situations and encouraging proper recovery between shifts.
Inger Andersen, director of the UN Environment Programme, said: “We have to minimise the risk of extreme wildfires by being better prepared: invest more in fire-risk reduction, work with local communities and strengthen global commitment to fight climate change.”
Prof. Guillermo Rein, at Imperial College London, who was not involved in the paper, said it was good to read an “extensive and international overview” of how fire management needed to change.
“The full report is impressive. It says so many good and important things,” he said. “Especially important is the emphasis on extreme wildfires and the recommendation for [a] move from reaction to prevention and preparedness.”
