Worsening National Environment Shifts North Carolina Senate races Toward GOP

The political environment for Democrats continues to be extremely difficult with just over eight months before the 2022 midterm election. The August slump that President Biden experienced with a tornado in inflation, a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the viscous Delta COVID variant has not been overturned. He could still benefit from the impending Supreme Court nominee he’s set to make but that is being overshadowed now by the foreign policy crisis Biden is facing as Russia invades Ukraine.

The president’s approval ratings reflect the chaos. His most recent FiveThirtyEight Average shows him at 42.2 percent approve/53.9% disapprove. This is roughly where Trump stood at this moment in the 2018 cycle when Republicans lost 40 House seats. Despite having a difficult Senate map, Democrats held their losses to only two seats that cycle.

While the House is more at risk of losing control, the Senate map is likely to be affected by the White House as well as the national mood. When we look at our ratings holistically, it is clear that we see this.