Thanks to heavy rain, Australia’s environment scores a 7 out of 10 – but the future remains bleak

After the devastating floods, it’s hard to imagine only two years earlier many hard-hit communities suffered extreme heat, drought and unprecedented bushfires. Yet Our report, released today, shows Australia’s environment has recovered dramatically since then.

Every year we use a supercomputer to analyse vast amounts of measurements from satellites and field stations to give the condition of Australia’s environment a score out of ten. For 2021, we score it 6.9 – four points higher than The year before.

The improvement is largely thanks to two years of plentiful rains that helped Australia’s forests, pastures and farmland recover well.

You might be asking yourself if there is too much rain for the environment, as the rains have increased in 2022, flooding many parts of southeast Australia. What does this all mean for the bushfire seasons ahead?

First, let’s look back at 2021

We assessed Australia’s environment using 15 key indicators, such as water availability, bushfire, population pressures and vegetation health. Combined, these help determine the overall “environmental condition score”.

On Our websiteRegional scores can be found for your state or territory as well as local government areas, catchment, and electorate. Scores can be improved almost everywhere, as is the norm.

We confirmed that rainfall was near or above average nearly everywhere, thanks to back-to-back La Niña events – a natural climate phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean associated with wetter weather.

What’s more, in the winter and spring of 2021, parts of Australia Also, they felt the effects. of a “negative Indian Ocean Dipole” – a little like the Indian Ocean’s version of La Niña that also brings rainier weather.

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A soggy spring, a wet winter: What is the negative Indian Ocean dipole and why is it important?

Here are a few ways all this rain benefited Australia’s environment:

• It replenished the soils that had not received enough rain in 2020 and improved the growing conditions in both natural landscapes and managed landscapes like farms and plantation forest.

• Drought conditions in previously drought-ravaged areas of northern Australia have improved by comparison to 2020

• Fluxes in Australia’s rivers increased by 75% over 2020 figures, while urban water supplies rose for all capital cities.

• Wetlands grew to their maximum extent since 2016, but still 9% less than the 20-year average. There were no major fish kills or algal blooms.

• growth conditions in Australia’s cropping, grazing and irrigation lands were well above average and the best since 2000 in all major regions except South Australia and inland Western Australia.

Australia saw a decrease in population growth and carbon emissions between 2021 and 2021, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This translated into a slower increase in the pressure on the environment.

Dark clouds visible from the horizon

Unfortunately, some troubling trends didn’t improve in 2021. Biodiversity continued its decline. Twelve species were included. Declared extinct, although ten of them probably vanished more than 60 years ago. The Christmas Island pipistrelle was a smaller bat that was last seen in 2009.

Another 34 species were added to Australia’s list of threatened species, eight of which are birds from Kangaroo Island, which suffered extensive and severe bushfires in early 2020.

While the number and condition of threatened species varies depending on their habitat, their long term decline does not slow down. This is largely due to invasive species like Feral cats and foxeslogging, urban development and river water extraction.

For example, despite the increased wetland extent and good rains, ResearchersWe counted fewer birds than in the four previous years in Eastern Australia.

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The Great Barrier Reef was able to provide favorable conditions for the rapid, but fragile, recovery and maintenance of hard corals following three bleaching events within five years. A recent heatwave in northern Queensland has meant that there is now a Fourth coral bleaching event2022 is in the cards.

Despite the relatively mild weather conditions in 2021 the specter of climate change at a global level has not lifted,

The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increased by 2% in the wake of the pandemic. 2.5 parts per million6% faster than in 2020, and 11% quicker than the average rate of growth since 2000.

Because of La Niña, more of the excess heat went into the Pacific Ocean in 2021 than normal, rather than into the atmosphere. The atmosphere was 0.14 degrees cooler in 2021 than it was in 2021, but it was still close to one degree above the 2000-20 average. Sixth-warmest year in record.

Can there ever been too much rain?

In 2021, major flooding occurred in Queensland and NSW due to above-average rainfall. This was even before the recent deluge. The recent deluge, however, has been quite severe. Record-breaking rainsAdded water to soils and catchments, rivers, and dams that were already replenished in 2021.

Does Australia’s environment still benefit from so much rain? It can, largely.

Our ecosystems are better able to adapt to wild climate swings. They can shed excess water more efficiently and recover quickly from damage.

In normally dry regions, more rain means more vegetation growth and uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – although much of it will be released again during droughts or fires.

River flooding is a source for life in inland Australia and may help to mitigate some of the damage caused by over-extraction and diversion of floodwaters.

Continue reading:
Trees: why they’re our greatest allies against floods – but also tragic victims

Although the consequences of extreme rainfall on invasive plants and animals is not well understood, they are likely to be very diverse. Invasive species may spread faster if they are less adapted for drought.

The most severe environmental impacts occur in areas where natural vegetation was removed for farming, housing, or mining. Unprotected soil absorbs less excess rainfall and can be loosened by the rain and runoff.

This erosion can lead to the loss of farmland, riverbanks, and washed-out sediments and nutrients that end up in rivers, lakes, and the sea. It can choke marine life and encourages the growth of crown -of-thorns starfish which attack coral reefs.

What does this all mean for bushfires

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that La Niña conditions reached their peak and rainfall conditions may normalise soon. The ocean heat will be released and air temperatures will quickly resume their warming trend.

Combining this with the rapid growth of vegetation, bushfire activity will likely increase next fire season. More vegetation equals more fuel for fire. These conditions can only be improved by a few hot, dry weeks.

Unfortunately, climate change, invasive species, and the pressures of plant destruction will continue to degrade agriculture and ecosystems for many decades. These impacts can be avoided by reducing carbon emissions and managing ecosystems more carefully.

Both are within reach, but require the sort of consensus and resolve shown in response to COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion. Our environmental crisis is not less serious.

Continue reading:
“One of the most severe disasters in colonial Australian History”: Climate scientists on floods and our future risks