A Clarion Call for Climate Change Adaptation

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s new report, “Climate Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability,” brings devastating news that human-induced global warming will have more far reaching impacts than we anticipated and has already pushed many of our “natural and human systems beyond their ability to adapt.” The new report, a comprehensive assessmentClimate impacts, authored in part by 270 experts and scientists from 67 nations, identifies India is a country that has the highest number of people who are vulnerable to climate impacts..

The IPCC report’s key findings for India:

1. India’s heat and humidity could make it impossible to live. This report is about wet-bulb temperatures. It is a measure that combines heat with humidity to determine safe temperatures for human beings. (A wet-bulb temperature of 31°C is extremely unhealthy, and a temperature of 35°C is not survivable for more than about 6 hours, regardless of a person’s fitness level, health or access to shade.) Most of the country experiences wetbulb temperatures that are between 25-30 degrees. If India’s emissions continue to rise, wet-bulb temperatures in India will reach 31 degrees. Much of India is at or above the 35 degree limit for survival, According to the report. At 1.5°C, Kolkata will regularly experience average heat conditions equivalent to the 2015 record heat waves.
2. Increased Water and Food Insecurity. Climate change could increase water scarcity problemsIn river basins throughout India, such as Amu Darya and Indus, Ganges, and inter-state Sabarmati River basin. India would also emerge as one of the most fragile nations in terms crop production. Price increases are expected for all South Asian regions between 2015 and 2040. India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are predicted to experience higher wheat and rice prices than the baseline scenario. The report states that The production of rice could decline by as much as 30 percent, while that of maize could drop up to 70 percent. A growing number of pests, changing temperatures, precipitation levels, and extreme weather events will all have a negative impact on agricultural productivity. These projections raise serious concerns about food security and food affordability. This will likely severely affect South Asian countries’ overall economic growth since they have mainly agriculture-driven economies.
3. Increased Severe weather Impacts. Already, India has been suffering from severe weather impacts that are increasing in severity. These will only continue to increase. Many Indians are already living in India. Sea level rise: At risk. According to the report, “around 35 million people in India could face annual coastal flooding [by mid-century], with 45-50 million at risk by the end of the century.” Just in Mumbai, sea level rise damages amount to US$49-50 Billion by 2050, and could rise by a factor 2.9 by 2070. According to global projections, the fire risk in India will rise in the Western Ghats as well as in Eastern Himalayas. This could be due to a variety of factors. It is also possible that there will be more frequent, destructive heat waves, droughts and landslides.
4. Increased exposure to carcinogenic chemicalsProposed scenarios for India’s 2030s are Potentially increased malaria epidemicsAflatoxin is expected to rise in North America, Europe, India, Africa, and Africa. Other carcinogenic toxins such as those from cyanobacteria blooms are likely to increase in frequency with climate change. This could have significant health impacts.

It is time to reverse the trend of climate change, and at the same, to build and strengthen adaptive capacity among the most vulnerable. There is good work being done at the local and state levels on resilience. India has many states that have developed resilience. Cities have cool roofs as part of heat action plansVillages are now implementing green village plans,Front-line communities are working towards adaptation, and implementation of the tools that they need to mitigate climate change. Coordinated adaptationHeat Action Plans, which are cited in IPCC’s report, can help reduce the adverse effects of extreme weather events.

There is still much more to do. Along with adaptation measures, we need to immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As the report warns, “with increased warming, the effectiveness of many adaptation options declines.” Climate change is a global problem, and as such, requires global solutions. India was instrumental in the establishment of the Coalition for Disaster Resilient InfrastructureThe Centre for Disaster Resilience International (CDRI), an international platform focusing on disaster resilience, is based in Delhi. It can be a useful vehicle for countries that want to collaborate. We also need more collaboration on investment in innovative green financing options, increased capacity building and a commitment to large-scale equity. Globally and in India, worsening climate impacts will only compound the risks for the most vulnerable People who are already struggling to survive the relentless assault of multiple stressors like climate, poverty, social inequities, and health. As NRDC president Manish Bapna said in a Statement, “there are limits in the ability of people and nature to adapt and those most affected are vulnerable communities with the least resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. It’s time for action.”