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Tierra Del Fuego, Patagonia, Chile.Kike Calvo/ZUMA
This story was first published by Grist and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
Scientists have known for a long time that the urgency is to stop the emission of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere. They argue that the clock is ticking for adaptation to the devastating effects of climate change in a new international study released Monday. Rising seas, scorching wildfires, and devastating droughts already jeopardize billions of people worldwide—these, and other climate impacts, are expected to get much worse over the coming decades.
“Any further delay” in global action, the report says, “will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”
The second part of the report is now available. Recent global assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, a body of leading climate experts from around the world. The first report, which the United Nations secretary-general called a “Code red for humanity,” was released last summer and The physical science of climate change was addressed, warning that global warming was “widespread, rapid, and intensifying.” This week’s report highlights climate impacts and ways to adapt to them, and the third, slated for publication in April, will focus on ways to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
If the first report in the series conjured up a harrowing vision of a world on the brink of climate catastrophe, this week’s analysis brings that world into sharper detail. Region by region, the document describes “widespread, pervasive impacts” to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure.
Rising temperatures have caused more severe and extensive damage to the natural environment in many places than previously thought. Half of the species assessed by the IPCC have been forced to migrate toward the poles or to higher elevations, the report says, while melting glaciers and thawing permafrost are likely causing “irreversible” changes to the land and seas.
Meanwhile, climate change is amplifying human conflicts and causing widespread damage to people’s physical and mental health. According to the report, animal and human diseases are appearing in new areas. Extreme wildfires and other disasters are also causing more respiratory distress, trauma, and the erosion and destruction of livelihoods. These impacts are not evenly distributed throughout the world, and are “strongly concentrated among the poorest vulnerable populations,” according to the report.
The report states that there is still time for people and ecosystems to be protected from the worst effects of climate change. However, time is rapidly running out. The authors urge world leaders to prepare for worsening conditions by, among other things, conserving at least one-third of the world’s natural habitats. For example, forest management and conservation can reduce the risk of wildfires and disease, and can also help to keep flooding under control. Preserving biodiverse forests and soggy peatlands has the added benefit of keeping some of the world’s biggest carbon sinks intact.
The report suggests that physical infrastructure improvements, such as the construction of levees, can help protect the 3.6 billion people who live near areas vulnerable to climate changes. Other options include planned relocation—”aligned with sociocultural values and development priorities, and underpinned by inclusive community engagement processes.”
Although adaptation efforts like these have become more commonplace since the IPCC’s last assessment report, released in 2014, the authors observe that most countries’ efforts are still small in scale and focused on the near term. Countries must be ambitious and quick in implementing new adaptation strategies. Every degree that the planet heats, the more difficult it becomes to do so. At 1.5 degrees Celsius, 14 percent of all species on the planet could face extinction. At 2 degrees C, snowmelt availability for irrigation and drinking water will decline by 20 percent, and flood damages could double — threatening the 1 billion people in low-lying cities and settlements. The authors recognize even the most ambitious adaptations won’t prevent all impacts; at this point, adaptation is simply about reducing as much damage as possible.
The report also stresses the need for approaches that mitigate climate change’s disproportionate impacts on the most vulnerable communities. Between 2010 and 2020, the human mortality due to floods, droughts and storms was 15x higher in highly vulnerable areas than in areas that are more protected from climate change. According to the report, social protection programs like cash transfers or public works programs can help reduce such inequalities, while also providing valuable co-benefits such as boosting gender equality or alleviating poverty. Incorporating Indigenous knowledge and community knowledge into policymaking can reduce climate risk and address ongoing patterns of oppression.
“Putting vulnerable groups and countries at the heart of the decision-making process on how we respond to climate change can make societies more resilient,” Edwin Castellanos, director of the Sustainable Economic Observatory at the University of the Valley of Guatemala and a lead author of the report, told reporters on Sunday.
Environmental advocates welcomed the report’s focus on social justice while also highlighting the report’s implications for the controversial topic of “Loss and Damage,” which describes the idea that the countries most responsible for climate change should help pay for its devastating impacts to the developing world. According to Preety Bhandari, senior adviser in global and climate finance for the World Resources Institute, the IPCC’s focus on the Global South puts loss and damage “squarely on the table” for negotiators and politicians to address.
Bhandari and other experts praised the report as a call for world leaders, who should place justice at U.N. Climate Conference in November in Egypt. The conference, known by COP27, will provide key insights on how wealthy countries will behave. support developing countries in their efforts to adapt to a warming world and transition away from fossil fuels.
“We are hoping for a more positive outcome,” Bhandari said, “in terms of recognition of the needs of the vulnerable countries, and finding a solution to support them.”
Staff writer at Grist Zoya Teirstein contributed reporting to this story.
