B.C. B.C.

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There are some things you can bet will appear in next week’s provincial budget: money for child care, Indigenous reconciliation and infrastructure projects to “build back better.”

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Although the NDP government claims it has a clear vision of a post-pandemic economic recovery, that vision could be clouded by the malaise that is rooted in unaffordable housing and a growing overdose epidemic, as well as the challenges that the health care system faces that the government has not been able to address.

Selina Robinson, Finance Minister has vowed a budget that will boost economy while funding NDP priorities.

In December, when she released a quarterly financial update, Robinson promised spending on priorities such as dealing with climate change, reducing poverty, reducing inequality and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples — while boosting B.C. economic resilience.

B.C.’s dropping deficit and a projected 4.3 per cent growth in gross domestic product in fiscal 2022-23 have created some breathing room for the NDP government.

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At the beginning of the fiscal year, April 2021, a deficit of $10 billion was projected. The deficit projection for the fiscal year ending March 31 was $1.7 billion by December.

Ken Peacock is the chief economist at B.C. Business Council believes that the brighter picture is due to government spending less for the pandemic than they had anticipated. However, revenues were up because of Exports at higher prices, a hot market for housing and pent-up consumer spending after COVID restrictions were lifted.

“That will continue in 2022 and we will get a boost from increased travel as well, but that will change in 2023 when we are projecting growth of around two per cent,” Peacock said.

Budget details are kept secret until the document is introduced to the legislature. Here are some of the most important items that will guide the province during the fiscal year 2022-23.

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Economic recovery

The government unveiled its economic plan on Thursday, which promises spending on training and innovation “to achieve two big goals: inclusive growth and clean growth.”

The plan’s centrepiece is spending $137 million to fund a new $162-million trades and technology complex at BCIT’s main campus in Burnaby. Four new buildings will be home to 20 trades, including plumbing, pipefitting, and carpentry.

Jobs minister Ravi Kahlon said it’s a response to a labour-market outlook that estimated B.C. Over the next decade, there will be close to 1 million skilled trades jobs.

Higher-speed internet could be extended to smaller communities and other workers to help speed up the expansion of the province’s high-speed internet.

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“With the pandemic, we have seen a migration of people out of larger communities and into smaller ones with the expectation that they will still have their connectivity, so they can work from home,” said Laurey-Anne Roodenburg, the president of the Union of B.C. Municipalities.

“There are many benefits, like the safety aspect of having good connectivity, or health — especially in remote rural areas for telehealth.”

Kahlon stated that there will be spending to support a green economy.

For this purpose, the province created the InBC Investment Corp. last year. It’s expected the independent investment fund will receive its first $500 million budget next week.

The budget could also include money that will be used to establish a new centre for excellence and innovation in agricultural technology. This announcement is expected on Saturday.

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The government has stated that its future spending will be viewed through the lens of inclusion. However, the 42-page Economic Plan does not include any immediate plans to improve social programs or create new ones.

Advocates like Helaine Boyd (co-executive director at Disability Alliance B.C.) are concerned about this.

The province stopped paying $300 per month in pandemic support payments to people on income assistance or disability payments last year and replaced it by a permanent $175 per month increase to assistance and disability payments.

It also created accessibility legislation and an accessibility directorate in its last budget. Boyd denied that either of these have been funded. She stated that the government accepted a 2019 recommendation made by the B.C. Human Rights Commission to establish a legal rights service to assist those detained under the Mental Health Act. But, there has been no action.

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“These things keep us in poverty and keep us excluded,” said Boyd. “We want to see money in this budget attached to promises made in the past.”

The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives’ senior economist and public finances policy analyst said the government should not be afraid spending more on social programs.

“For the past 30 years, most governments in the western world have come to believe that we have to constrain spending, but we have the capacity to increase public investments,” said Alex Hemingway.

“Operating spending as a share of GDP is substantially lower today than it was 20 years ago. If we were spending the same share of our GDP this year as we did 20 years ago, we’d have an extra $5 billion on the table.”

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Hemingway, Boyd and others urge the government to take bolder steps in addressing social inequalities revealed by the pandemic. Businesses hope the budget will recognize their struggles.

Peacock mentioned that businesses were hurt by rising medical and WorkSafe premiums and new paid sick leave provisions.

“A lot of businesses are really feeling the squeeze and the pressure, and we are also concerned about the long term decline of investment,” he said. “We’d like to see a signal in the budget that government is willing to address that.”

The CEO of B.C.’s Mining Association of B.C. The CEO of the Mining Association of B.C. stated that the regulatory regime, high personal or corporate taxes, and the carbon tax are all driving investment away.

“B.C. has the highest carbon tax in the world and it’s the only jurisdiction that does not provide meaningful carbon pricing supports to industries that compete in global markets,” said Michael Goehring. “Global markets set the price of our product, but if our input costs are higher than others, then it’s much harder to compete.”

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Goehring stated that pleas to the government have been ignored.

“The government’s own Climate Solutions Council wrote to Environment Minister George Heyman twice last year, asking him to address the competitive challenges faced by trade-exposed industries, but it got no response,” he said.

“It’s through exports that you can grow your economy more quickly than population growth and that is how everyone becomes wealthier and more prosperous,” said Peacock.

The Council of Forest Industries, which represents most of the lumber, pulp, paper, and manufactured wood producers in B.C. reminded government during prebudget consultations that this sector contributes more then $2 billion annually to provincial revenues, and provides more than 10,000 jobs.

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“It is a sector that each year helps to pay for things like hospitals, schools, mental health support and other critical services that make life better for people,” said Alexa Young, COFI’s vice-president of government and public affairs.

“What we’d like to see from the budget is a recognition of the outsized role that the forest industry plays in supporting people’s well-being across British Columbia and that the future can be bright.”

The industry is worried about its future after the province launched what it called “transformative change in how forests will be managed.”

B.C. B.C.There are more than 26,000 kms of old growth forest. This is the equivalent of 65,000 Stanley Parks.It also negotiates with First Nations to increase or decrease their participation in this sector.

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Young said industry supports the province’s goals, but it feels left out of the process.

“It is important to regularly modernize forestry policy to reflect the fact that climate is having an affect on our forests, to continuously look at how you better engage and increase the participation of First Nations in the sector. And all of that is incredibly important, but how you get there is important, too,” Young said. “And having an inclusive process that has everyone at the table is crucial.”

Care for children

The promise of $10-a-day child care has been a large plank in NDP election platforms since 2017, but advocates say last year’s budget did not live up to expectations.

In 2021, the province announced that it would create just more than 3,700 $10-per day child care spaces over three-years.

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“We were very disappointed,” said Sharon Gregson of the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of B.C.

A federal-provincial agreement on child care was signed in July, giving new life to an old promise. Federal funding will see 4,000 child care spaces converted to $10-a day spaces by March.

The new provincial budget must contain funding to meet the targets under the deal to convert 12,500 spaces into $10-a-day spaces, and to reduce the average cost for child care by 50% by December.

“Those deliverables are not something they can carry over into the future,” said Gregson.

The coalition wants the budget to include dollars to create a provincial wage grid. This would allow early childhood teachers to set hourly rates between $20 and $29 based on their education.

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It hopes to receive funding to create 5,000 child care spaces, as well as for items not covered in the bilateral agreement such before- and after-school care for children of school age.

“It is a significant list of expectations because child care is significant for economic recovery,” said Gregson.

“If we want more people to get into the workforce, if we want child care to be a well-respected and well-compensated profession so that children get the best start, then it’s going to take bilateral funding and additional provincial funding to make it happen.”

Housing

The province insists it’s cracking down on real estate investors through its foreign-buyers tax and the speculation and vacancy tax, while tackling supply issues under a decade-long plan to spend billions of dollars on affordable rental units and social housing.

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In 2018, the province announced that it would create 114,000 affordable housing units for middle-income families, Indigenous persons, students, women, and children fleeing domestic violence. The plan also includes 14,000 rental apartments that are purpose-built. The plan promised thousands more permanent and emergency housing for those who are homeless.

Three years later, 26,000 affordable housing units are complete or in progress. This is slower than we expected.

David Eby, minister for housing, recently stated that he is currently working on legislation which he will introduce following the fall municipal elections. It would streamline local government approvals and close loopholes that he believes allow local governments to reject housing projects.

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“Based on comments by minister Eby, that the province is doing all it can already and municipalities need to step up, I am not expecting a big infusion of money in this budget, beyond what has been built into the 10-year plan,” said Hemingway.

Climate resilience

Floods, fires, and heat domes could have a greater impact on the next provincial budget in 2021 than the pandemic. The budgets for the past two years included billions of dollars in support for pandemics. Analysts and construction companies believe that the next budget will include increases in infrastructure spending for projects that ensure climate-change resistance in supply chains.

“God just keeps creating more and more work for us,” said Kelly Scott, president of the B.C. Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association.

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Scott estimates that the province will spend millions more on emergency road repairs following the floods last year.

“B.C. has 47,000 kilometres of highways and we may have gotten away with lower investments in maintenance before, but we have to build back with climate-resilient construction in the future,” he said. “So we expect to see a lift in what’s called the rehab budget.”

Climate-resilient Infrastructure Investments aligns with legislation expected this fall to modernize B.C.’s Emergency Program Act. These amendments, which have been promised over four years, will include mitigation, prevention, and response measures.

“We can’t dither any longer,” said Tim Takaro, a professor of health sciences at Simon Fraser University. “But I don’t hear a sense of urgency from the premier.”

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Last year, the province spent $1.3 million on oil and gas subsidies. Takaro will be watching to see what’s budgeted this year.

“The Clean B.C. plan has some great elements to it but it can’t happen alongside the growth of the liquefied natural gas industry,” he said.

Health care

The government has committed to improving health care delivery by creating more nurse student spaces and primary care centres.

Doctors of B.C. President The President of Doctors in B.C. would like the 2022-23 provincial budget funding to recruit and retain highly skilled family physicians and surgeons.

“We need funding to find a solution for problems that patients are having in seeking access to health care,” said Dr. Ramneek Dosanjh.

“The fee-for-service model is outdated because it does not address the complex health care needs of patients nor does it recognize the increasing costs to run a doctor’s office. We need to end the attrition crisis of doctors packing up and saying they’ve had enough because of those issues and burnout from the pandemic.”

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Indigenous reconciliation

According to the province, reconciliation has been considered in government decisions in the two years since the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples was passed.

It has pledged to implement a plan to implement this declaration.

The throne speech said government will “return Indigenous peoples’ inherent jurisdiction over child welfare, address the disproportionate representation of Indigenous Peoples in the criminal justice system and ensure First Nations share meaningfully in the prosperity of the land they have lived on since time immemorial.”

The new economic recovery plan envisages an Indigenous economic development agency.

Terry Teegee is the elected regional chief for B.C. Assembly of First Nations and a member of the First Nations Leadership Council that advises government, said he’s seen very few dollars budgeted to achieve those goals.

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“We need funding to get the plan going, to create Indigenous governing bodies that will allow First Nations to make informed decisions to manage climate change, to play a meaningful role in regulatory processes, to enter into economic partnerships, to create Indigenous-led child welfare services, to train workers and to achieve economic, health and social goals,” he said.

Teegee said he will be looking to the budget to gauge government’s commitment to those goals.

“We didn’t expect much from last year’s budget because of COVID but we’re hoping for more resources for pandemic recovery this year. There has been some funding in the past, but so far there has been a lack of political will to fully fund what’s needed, and that could be because it’s difficult for a leopard to change its spots.”

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The B.C. Liberal finance critic, Peter Milobar, who was the Indigenous Affairs critic during last year’s budget, called reconciliation “another example of empty government promises.”

“It’s about digging in, past their flowery words used in their press releases, to see, is there actual, meaningful added capacity going into things like Indigenous reconciliation or is it just a shuffling of the cards and making it look like it’s new?”

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