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The University’s research team discovered that the effects of climate changes are causing plants in the UK, including the UK, to flower one month earlier as a result of recent global warming.
The analysis was based upon more than 400,000 observations from over 400 plant species. Nature’s Calendar. The first flowering date for trees, shrubs, or herbs was classified in several ways. It could be classified by their location, elevation, and whether they are from urban or rural areas. These dates were then compared to monthly climate records.
The Results, reported in Proceedings of the Royal Society BAccording to a study, the average first blooming date between 1987 and 2019 is one month earlier than that of 1753-1886. This is a strong correlation with the rapid global warming caused by human activity.
Though the first flowers of spring are often a welcome sight, this earlier flowering can have profound consequences for the UK’s ecosystems and agriculture.
Known as ecological mismatch, species that synchronise their migration or hibernation can be left without the flowers and plants they rely on, which, according to Professor Ulf Büntgen from the Department of Geography, can lead “species to collapse if they can’t adapt quickly enough.”
Farmers and gardeners might also feel the impacts. If they are not hit by a frost late in the season, crops that had begun to flower soon after a mild winter could die.
The effects of climate changes can be seen in an increase in extreme weather events as well as greater variability. However, the long-term impacts of climate change on ecosystems is more subtle and more difficult to quantify. Büntgen, who led the study, said: “to really understand what climate change is doing to our world, we need much larger datasets that look at whole ecosystems over a long period of time.”
The UK has such a database. From the 18th Century onwards, scientists, naturalists and organizations like the Royal Meteorological Society have documented observations of seasonal change. These records were collated into what is now known as Nature’s Calendar in 2000. It currently contains approximately 3.5 million records dating back to 1736.
If global temperatures continue to rise at the current rate, spring could begin in the UK in February. The rapid pace of climate change could cause serious problems for many of the species that forests and gardens rely on.
In order to better understand the consequences of climate change, Professor Tim Sparks from the Department of Zoology, and co-author of the study, said that “continued monitoring is necessary,” with Büntgen adding that “anyone in the UK can submit a record to Nature’s Calendar, by logging their observations of plants and wildlife.”
The European Research Council, Fritz and Elisabeth Schweingruber Foundation and Woodland Trust supported the research.
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