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Ireland’s climate change plans, which were challenging before Vladimir Putin decided to invade UkraineDue to the rapidly worsening fuel/food impacts resulting in the Ukraine war, they have been forced to accept defeat.
The State has already resorted to using more fossil fuels due to rising gas prices and a lack of other energy sources.
With countries now scrambling to reduce reliance on Russia’s oil and gas, it has worsened market volatility.
Soaring food prices and associated food inflation is compounding anxiety – and exposing Ireland’s food security weaknesses. All these uncertainties are coming just as the Government is about implement its first carbon budget.
Living in one of the most fossil-fuel-dependent countries in EuropeIt is also not sustainable, as it requires more than 80 million barrels per year in energy.
This week’s turmoil led to calls for emergency measures including bigger cuts to fossil fuel prices; reduced carbon taxes; bringing on stream Shannon LNG terminal; supporting fertiliser purchases; and lifting a ban on commercial peat harvesting.
Prime minister of the UK Boris Johnson believes the West should be given “a climate change pass” to wean off Russian gas supplies. A Irish version would risk undermining collective efforts for addressing a worsening climate crises by abandoning the most ambitious global emissions reduction plan and increasing reliance upon fossil fuels, the largest contributor to an overheating planet.
Strangely, however, politicians, climate activists, and energy experts believe that current turbulence could encourage a scaling-up of investment in the transition to renewable energy as wartime and stark lessons on energy use tip the scales in our favor.
Green Party TD, chairman of the OireachtasEnvironment Climate Action Committee Brian Leddin says the Government – and not just Greens – are coming under pressure. But, critically, there is acceptance “the impetus has to be in the other direction. If not, it will lead to acceleration of the climate crisis”, while he says everybody realises burning fossil fuels is “funding a war”.
He claims that the carbon tax debate was stopped weeks ago. However, inspections have shown that it only a small percentage of fuel costs. The idea that the country dates back to the second World War and has stockpiled peat is not true. There are other options available for scaling up renewables and retrofitting.
“We have the answers. It’s just a matter of pursing them aggressively, which we are doing,” Leddin adds. Those advocating “climate pass” measures are at a micro level, he says, when most pressure on party leaders in government is to get off fossil fuels as quickly as possible.
Short-term measures
There are, however, short-term measures needed to ease impacts on the public and to prepare for next winter when the brunt of the crisis is likely to hit home, according to Friends of the Earth director Oisín Coghlan.
He was incredulous when the IFA asked for reductions in carbon taxes and more support for fertiliser usage. “The answer to the fossil-fuelled Russian war of aggression on Ukraine is the further intensification of Irish agricultural pollution? C’mon lads get real,” he tweeted.
Actions should go beyond excise reductions, he says, and include free installation of attic insulation for all homes below an income of €100,000 a year; reducing public transport costs, pausing new data-centre connections, rolling out bus connects, ending objections to cycling routes and putting in safe routes to schools.
Leddin believes there can be quick wins in transport, but less in heating. He cites research by MaREI energy specialists in UCC which found 37 per cent of emissions in transport come from car journeys of less than 8km – something easily addressed with increased cycling and use of ebikes, provided safe and well-designed networks are put in place.
In a war scenario there is opportunity to pursue actions that might normally take years to implement, “but if we mess up this moment, it could put a safe climate beyond reach,” Coghlan warns. And there is no justification for easing emissions ceilings under the five-year carbon budget that the Government has already agreed and submitted to the Oireachtas – given the Climate Change Advisory Councilapprouvé lower-stress limits in the early years.
Coghlan states that the LNG terminal’s construction will not make a difference immediately. Europe has more than enough LNG facilities for gas imports. That includes the UK, which provides all of Ireland’s imported gas through interconnectors. Instead, the Government should invest in renewable energy and reduce dependence on fossil fuel infrastructure.
Gas has to be kept in the mix to ensure flexibility in the power system – especially as it as a better alternative to oil and coal, says Prof Lisa RyanUCD Energy Institute. She is not convinced by the LNG argument, as it will not cover Ireland’s natural gas requirement even if sourced from the US.
The priority should be getting out of oil use, especially in transport, while “pushing us more to renewable energy rather than less”. She points out that while there will be some demand for electricity from gas, it will not exceed 50% for a while. However, grid improvements to maximise flexibility and reduce demand will lead to a lot more gas.
High fuel prices put emphasis on personal fuel consumption. However, the question is how can that be turned around to climate mitigation. She worries about social media rhetoric, which suggests that there are other pressing problems and that addressing climate changes is not a priority. The problem is “there are always bigger things”, Ryan adds, when reducing carbon emissions has to be the over-riding priority.
Pressure on the Government
The Greens will come under pressure to water down pledges, while others will seek to advance their own agendas in the face of “the new emergency”, Coghlan says. Its opposition to new fossil fuel infrastructure is, for example, science-based and not as ideologically driven as some have claimed. “It’s an evidence-based position, that hasn’t gone away because just because there is a crisis.”
Reopening the programme for government – as called for by two backbench Fine Gael TDs to facilitate Shannon LNG – would be ill-advised, he underlines. It could bring everything back to the table. He doesn’t think any coalition party would want that.
Biogas may offer some relief. The Ukraine war exposed Ireland’s failure to scale up bioenergy, especially biomethane generated using energy crops, farm slurries, crop residues and food waste, according to PJ McCarthy of the Renewable Gas Forum IrelandThis is changing.
Anaerobic digesters can make biomethane more affordable than natural gas. The EU strategy to end dependence on Russian oil gets huge backing. The impending announcement of the Government’s renewable heat obligation scheme, however, will be a game-changer as it bridges the funding gap, McCarthy predicts. “This won’t compete with food production.”
“While other renewable gases, such as green hydrogen, need time to scale up and are still two to four times more expensive, biomethane is available and scalable within the coming decades,” McCarthy adds.
Wind energy
One indication of what investment in renewable energy could bring has come from confirmation that wind energy provided 53 per cent of Ireland’s electricity in February, the highest share ever achieved. It was the number-one source of electricity throughout the month, while on February 5th, a new all-Ireland record was set for the amount of wind energy on the system – meeting 85 per cent of demand.
It highlights the importance of wind energy in cutting the price of wholesale electricity: during the windiest periods of the month, wholesale prices were almost €100 cheaper per megawatt-hour (MWh) than during less windy days, at €134.25 per MWh, versus €229.62. Higher wind power means lower electricity prices.
Chief Executive Officer of WEI Noel Cunniffe noted: “The fact that wholesale prices fall when wind energy production is high shows that wind energy will play an increasingly important role in the coming months, mitigating the worst effects of the predicted price increases for consumers due to spiralling fossil fuel import prices.”
A snapshot to confirm the potential for brighter days ahead.
