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To keep the RICH countries in good standing, they must stop producing oil and gas by 2034. World on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and give poorer nations longer to replace their income from fossil fuel production, according to a new report from a leading climate scientist.
The study proposes different dates for oil and natural gas producing countries, in line with international goals to achieve a fair transition.
Taking into account countries’ differing levels of wealth, development and economic reliance on fossil fuels, it says the poorest nations should be given until 2050 to end production, but that they will also need significant financial support to support their economies while doing so.
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The report is by Professor Kevin Anderson who is a leading researcher at Tyndall Centre. Climate ChangeResearch by Dr Dan Calverley at Manchester University and a colleague warns that there is no way for any nation to increase its production. Instead, all countries will have to make substantial cuts in this decade.
It said the richest, which produce over a third of the world’s oil and gas, must cut output by 74 per cent by 2030; the poorest, which supply just one ninth of global demand, must cut back by 14%.
Mr Anderson said: “Responding to the ongoing climate emergency requires a rapid shift away from a fossil fuel EconomyThis must be done honestly.
“There are vast differences in the ability of countries for oil and gas production to be stopped while maintaining vibrant economies and ensuring a fair transition for their citizens.
“We have developed a schedule for phasing out oil and gas production that – with sufficient support for developing countries – meets our very challenging climate commitments and does so in a fair way.
“The research was completed prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Naturally, our first thoughts are with all those who were involved in the war and with the Ukrainian people.
Can countries stop relying on oil and gas for energy?
Anderson stated that the rising oil and gas prices only strengthen the case that we made in our report.
“Had our twenty-years been spent establishing an efficient and rational use of energy, along with a large roll-out and deployment of renewables, we wouldn’t now be scrabbling for alternative oil or gas supplies and dealing with volatile prices.
“Now is exactly the time we should be planning for a renewable 21st-century rather than reliving the oil-based 20th.”
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The UK Government is increasing North Sea gas production in response to the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russian energy imports.
But the move has angered the Scottish Government with the Scottish Green’s co-leader Patrick Harvie, a minister in Nicola Sturgeon’s administration, using his conference speech earlier this month, to attack the move.
The SNP/Green government has not set a deadline for the end to fossil fuel production
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