Climate Change: Scientists alarmed over ‘dangerously fast’ spike in atmospheric methane

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According to U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data released in January, the atmospheric concentrations of methane surpassed 1,900 parts per million last year. This is almost triple the level at which it was preindustrial.

A Report by Nature Briefing on Tuesday also noted how scientists believe the grim milestone underscores the importance of a pledge made at last year’s COP26 climate summit to curb emissions of methane, a greenhouse gas at least 28 times as potent as CO2.

Slow growth

The rate of growth in methane emissions has slowed since the beginning of the millennium but started to increase rapidly around 2007, according to a report.

The spike has caused many researchers to worry that global warming is “creating a feedback mechanism that will cause ever more methane to be released, making it even harder to rein in rising temperatures.”

“Methane levels are growing dangerously fast,” said Euan Nisbet, an Earth scientist at Royal Holloway, University of London, in Egham, UK, according to the report.

The emissions, which seem to have accelerated in the past few years, are a major threat to the world’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5–2 °C over pre-industrial temperatures, he added.

Nigeria’s attempt to curb methane

Nigeria Recently, efforts were made to reduceBy committing to reduce short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and black carbon (SLCPs), the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) or its internationally agreed-upon commitment for mitigating climate change are being made.

The country included an SLCP section with a 60 per cent reduction in “fugitive methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by 2031, conditional on international support”.

If these NDCs are fully met, black carbon will be reduced by 42%, methane 28%, HFCs by 2% and methane 28% by 2030.

The Nigerian government had recognised the International Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) conclusion that there is no way to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius “without significant SLCP reductions alongside carbon cuts.”

Recent years have seen devastating effects of climate changes in Africa. These effects include increased food security, rising sea levels and floods, worsening droughts, and exacerbated conflict resulting from forced displacements.

Experts believe climate change will ultimately negatively affect food production in this west African nation where agriculture accounts for 23 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product and where over 40 per cent of the population is “food insecure”.

‘Enigmatic patterns’

In the meantime, the report noted how researchers have used aircraft, satellite measurements, and models to try to understand the causes of the methane increase for more than a decade.

“The causes of the methane trends have indeed proved rather enigmatic,” said Alex Turner, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Washington in Seattle. The report quotes Mr Turner as saying that he is yet not seeing any conclusive answers.

“It’s a powerful signal,” said Xin Lan, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, adding that this suggests that human activities alone are not responsible for the increase.

Mr Lan’s team has used the atmospheric 13C data to estimate that microbes are responsible for around 85 per cent of the growth in emissions since 2007, with fossil-fuel extraction accounting for the remainder.

Global Methane Pledge

Experts agree that there are many ways to reduce emissions.

Despite NOAA’s worrying alarm for 2021, “scientists already have the knowledge to help governments take action”, said Riley Duren, who leads Carbon Mapper, a non-profit consortium in Pasadena, California, that uses satellites to pinpoint the source of methane emissions.

Carbon Mapper and Environmental Defense Fund released data last month that showed that at least 30 oil and gas facilities in the southwest United States had collectively emitted around 100,000 tonnes methane over the last three years. This is roughly the annual warming effect of half a,000,000 cars.

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These facilities could stop methane escaping out and prevent them from being emitted, argue the groups.

More than 100 countries signed a Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030, at COP26 in Glasgow.

Duren stated that the focus must now be on action in low- and medium-income countries of the global south.

“Tackling methane is probably the best opportunity we have to buy some time,” he said, to solve the much bigger challenge of reducing the world’s CO2 emissions.