The first comprehensive analysis of the net zero pledges made at the UN Cop26 Climate Summit in December revealed that the world is now in an unprecedented position to limit global warming below 2C.
It was more probable than not that the temperature would rise above 2C by the peak of the climate crisis. This would have severe consequences for billions. Now, it is more likely that temperatures will peak at 1.9C.
Researchers stated that this was contingent on all nations fulfilling their pledges on schedule and in full. They also warned that there were no policies in place to ensure that this happened. The pledges also include those developed countries have stated will not occur without more financial or technical support.
Scientists praised the achievement of the pledges required for the 2C limit as a historic milestone. However, the scientists said that the global emission cuts currently planned for 2030 were not enough to keep the temperature at 1.5C. This is the global goal, but there is only a 10% chance of reaching it.
People all over the planet are already experiencing intensifying heatwaves and floods as a result of the 1.2C heating caused by human omissions to date. In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) warned of much worse if the temperature rises above 1.5C.
Christophe McGlade from the International Energy Agency, who was part of the team behind the analysis, said that the 2C limit is within reach. This is the first time that governments have set specific targets to keep global warming below the symbolic 2C level.
These results are a reason to be optimistic, he said. Since 2015, when the Paris agreement was signed, we’ve made a lot of progress. Now the real work begins. These pledges have not been supported by the credible and strong near-term policies that are required to make them a reality.
Professor Malte Meinshausen from the University of Melbourne, Australia, was another member of the team. He said that having the 2C limit in sight was an historic milestone.
He added: “Our study also clearly indicates that increased action is required for this decade.” We will be able to blow through the 1.5C carbon budget if we don’t. In April, a major IPCC report stated that global emissions must reach a peak and begin to decline within 30 month to maintain 1.5C.
The new analysis Published in NatureThis peer-reviewed study is the first to evaluate the impact of countries fulfilling their pledges on peak temperature rise. It used two independent modeling approaches. One of these models evaluated more than 1,400 scenarios and included recent pledges regarding shipping and aviation emissions.
Cop26 was over, and 153 countries had submitted new climate pledges. 75% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions were covered by these countries, which committed to net zero between 2050-2070. These have made the 2C limit possible, but scientists warned that there was still a 5% chance for a temperature above 2.8C due to uncertainties about how the planet reacts to rising greenhouse gas emissions.
McGlade stated that the climate policies currently in place would lead to a peak of 2.6C and massive climate damage around the globe. This peak has only been reduced to 2.4C by the commitments made so far by countries up to 2030. According to the IPCC, to limit heating to 1.5C, we must reduce CO2 emissions by 45% by 2030 in comparison with 2010.
However, emissions were expected to rise by 7-15% between 2030 and 2025, according to scientists. Any delay in taking action would put 1.5C out of reach. If the world fails to meet this target, then ensuring a sustainable future would require a massive rollout technology that can capture CO2 from the atmosphere and large-scale reforestation.
In a Nature commentary, Frances Moore from the University of California and Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe, stated that the new research provided a clearer picture of the future climate. It showed that the initial climate pledges made 2015 in Paris were partially being fulfilled, they said.
They said optimism should be limited until future promises to reduce emissions are supported by stronger short-term actions. It is easy for ambitious climate targets to be set for 30, 40, and even 50 years into the future. However, it is much more difficult to put in place the policies. [needed] today.
Moore and Hausfather also warned about the dangers of geopolitical tensions.
McGlade said that policymakers are at a crossroads. We have two options: lock in emissions or deepen the energy crisis. We can choose to use this moment and make an honest effort towards a cleaner, more secure future.
McGlade said that there were many policies that could have an immediate or near-term impact on the energy/climate crisis. These included reducing speed limits on roads and accelerating the rollout renewable energy vehicles. McGlade also stated that methane, which is a powerful greenhouse gas, can be stopped from oil and gas production facilities. Instead, it should be put into supply.