Self-driving cars technology has been elusively at the horizon for years. Bold predictions aside, fully automated vehicles still haven’t appeared in showrooms. However, technology looks poised to make a big leap in 2022.
Automated vehicles have great potential. Autos that are automated Most or all of the driving duties can be handled could be safer than human drivers, operate more efficiently and open up new opportunities for seniors, people with disabilities and others who can’t drive themselves. However, attention is understandable. Safety is our main focusThe potential environmental effects of automated vehicles have been largely ignored.
We study Automated vehicle technology How consumers will likely use them. Our research teams have found two creative ways to assess real-life environmental impacts of automated vehicles in two recent studies.
By analyzing drivers’ use of partially automated vehicles and simulating the expected impact of future driverless vehicles, we found that both automated vehicle types will encourage a lot more driving. This will increase transportation-related pollution and traffic congestion, unless regulators take steps to make car travel less appealing.
More miles means more carbon emissions
Research has shown that automated vehicles could make people drive more than they do now, according to previous research. More congestion, energy consumption, and pollution. It is much easier to ride in a car as a passenger than driving. This means that people may be willing to take longer trips and fight more traffic if there are other activities they can do during the trip. People could move further away from their jobs if they have a comfortable commute to work. This could help accelerate the growth of suburban sprawl.
People would also have the ability to send their cars on “zero-occupancy” trips, or errands without passengers. For example, if you don’t want to pay for parking downtown, at some point you may be able to send your car back home while you’re at work and summon it when you need it. It’s convenient, but you also save twice the driving.
This could become a major problem. Already, the transportation sector is The United States is the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. California and other states that have aggressively planned to combat climate change are examples of this. Reduce the number of miles people drive in their vehiclesIt is a critical strategy. What if automated vehicle technology makes these goals more difficult?
The real-world environmental impact of automated cars
We and other researchers have These outcomes were predicted by modeling, no one has been able to verify them because fully automated vehicles aren’t commercially available yet. We discovered two innovative ways to make use of currently available technologies to study real-world effects of automated cars.
We surveyed 940 people in a mid-2021 study. Autonomous drivers. Systems like Tesla’s AutopilotCan assist with driving tasks, and reduce the driving burden, but to a lesser extent than fully automated vehicles.
Autopilot users drove an average of 3.2 miles per hour, according to our research. nearly 5,000 more miles per year than those who didn’t. Interviews with 36 partially-automated vehicle drivers revealed that they were more willing and able to drive long distances, as well as being more willing to wait in traffic. Increased comfort and lower stressSemi-automated systems are available.
In a separate study, we also simulated the operation of a fully-automated vehicle by providing 43 households with a chauffeur service in Sacramento, California to take over driving duties. We tracked how they used the service. These households Their vehicle miles traveled increased by 60%Their pre-chauffeur travel was significantly reduced, as they used transit, bicycling, and walking much more often than before. More than half of the rise in vehicle travel involved chauffeurs traveling on zero-occupancy trips with no household members.
Automatic car use is reducing pollution
These results show that fully automated vehicles will be encouraged to drive more in the future, while partially automated vehicles are doing so right now. Is it possible to reap its benefits without making climate changes, air quality and congestion worse?
Future automated vehicles should use zero-emission technology California is doing it!This can be a huge help. However, until the U.S. develops, a 100% carbon-free electricity systemEven electric cars can produce some upstream emissions from power plants. All car travel is harmful Other adverse effects, such as water, air pollution, tire wear, collisions, wildlife, and traffic congestion.
To prevent an explosion in driving and associated harms, regulators and communities need to send signals that driving isn’t free. They could do this by putting a price on car travel – particularly on zero-occupancy trips.
These are the main policies that have an effect today. Federal and state fuel taxesCurrent average fuel prices are around 49 cents per gal for gasoline and 55 Cents for diesel fuel. But the impact of fuel taxes on drivers’ behavior will decline with the adoption and spread of electric vehicles. This means that the transportation industry will need to create new funding mechanisms for ongoing expenses like road maintenance.
State and federal governments could introduce user fees or charges to pay for the number of miles drivers travel. Correctly pricing private vehicle travel can encourage travelers to look into other, more cost-effective modes of travel, such as walking and bicycling.
These fees could be adjusted based on location – for example, charging more to drive into dense city centers – or other factors such as time of day, traffic congestion levels, vehicle occupancy and vehicle type. Modern communication technologies enable such policies by tracking where cars are and when they are on the roads.
Another option is to promote shared fleets rather than privately-owned automated vehicles. These vehicles could be viewed as commercial companies similar to Uber, Lyft, and other ride-sharing services. A car that is available at all times could allow you to avoid car ownership. It could also make it easier to serve travel demand by acting as on-demand transportation. These networks could be used by riders to access fixed-route public transportation services, which operate on main transportation corridors.
These policies will be most effective if adopted before automated vehicles become commonplace. A transportation future that is automated, electric and shared could be environmentally sustainable – but in our view, it’s unlikely to evolve that way on its own.[Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week. Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter.]