You’re not the only one sick of cold temperatures and wintry weather.
Metro Vancouverites who are looking for warmth in the midst of winter may not see a significant change.
While there isn’t any extreme cold forecasted in the upcoming weeks, the mercury is expected to dip below freezing on several nights next week.
Looking beyond the next 10 days or so, meteorologists note that it’s decidedly difficult to forecast what spring will feel like this year.
Environment Canada meteorologist Doug Lundquist told Vancouver Is Awesome in a phone interview that the region is currently experiencing above-average temperatures through Saturday (Feb.19) as it moves through a warm and wet period. But, the mild pattern will change this weekend as cold air from the interior moves into the region.
There is a possibility of snowfall on a couple of nights starting mid-week on Wednesday (Feb. 23) or Thursday but he noted that it will likely “just be rain mixed with snow or snow on higher terrain.”
However, the outlook is a bit murky beyond next week.
The meteorologist noted that the long-range forecast was less reliable this season than it has ever been.
While the Canadian weather model shows below-average temperatures for spring, other models around the world, such as those in the United States and Europe, are showing the opposite, he explained. “The seasonal forecast isn’t very reliable at the moment.”
Why is this seasonal forecast so unpredictable?
There are several reasons why Lundquist doesn’t have a great deal of confidence in the spring forecast—for the time being, at least.
One of these factors is the atmosphere. The atmosphere hasn’t been behaving consistently in a way that allows meteorologists predict the weather.
He commented, “It is in that type phase right now where its not very predictable.”
But climate change is also a factor in seasonal forecasting and colder than average predictions may actually end closer to average in the season. “It could be cold when it’s warm.
Additionally, Lundquist noted that climate scientists are researching whether or not the atmosphere behaves differently due to changing climate. One of the questions they are asking is whether or not systems take longer time to move.
A fourth reason is that there’s no snow in the interior valleys—the low elevation snow is “low across southern B.C., especially in the interior,” he commented. “Below-elevation snow means that the ground is darker when there is less snow, so it can absorb more sunlight and heat up.
All of these competing factors make it difficult to have confidence in this year’s spring forecast, particularly this far in advance. The federal forecasting agency will have a better idea about the season at the beginning of meteorological spring (Mar. 1).
Locals will be able to see some modified Arctic air moving into the region from the interior. This is expected to bring nighttime lows below freezing on a few nights next weekend. But the chilly weather pattern is largely expected to be dry, offering a respite from the wet weather.
