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An analysis was recently published to News Limited newspapersThe Morrison government ClaimQueensland’s ban on new coal and gas projects would result in 53,000 lost jobs and A$85billion in investment.
We checked the job claims, and they were highly exaggerated.
Keith Pitt, federal Resources Minister, released the government analysis as a response to a callThe Greens have called for a six-month moratorium in new coal, oil, and gas projects.
We analysed the most recent government data. Even in extreme scenarios, where all new coal- and gas projects are prohibited, future Queensland job losses would not exceed one-tenth of the minister’s claims.
A ban won’t affect every project
The most recent government dataset includes 44 coal projects and nine natural gas projects in Queensland. We discounted two of the gas projects that have already begun production from our analysis.
The remaining dataset includes the following projects:
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six “committed” projects: those with environmental and planning approvals and a final investment decision
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29 “feasible” projects: undergoing detailed analysis on their commercial viability, and awaiting environmental and planning approvals
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16 “announced” projects with no detailed work behind them yet.
Committed projects wouldn’t be affected by a ban, because authorities have already approved them. That means associated jobs won’t be affected either. These projects are associated with approximately 2,700 construction jobs, and 2,086 operational job opportunities.
The ban would only affect projects not yet approved – the 45 projects classified “feasible” or “announced”. From now on we’ll refer to these projects as “uncommitted”.
If all 45 of these projects went ahead, it would create 26,853 additional construction jobs in Queensland and 19,131 operational jobs – or about 46,000 jobs in total.
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Not every project will be realized
The majority of these uncommitted ideas will never be realized.
Official data reveals 29 of the 45 uncommitted projects have been on the books for five years or more without moving to “committed” status.
Only five projects were uncommitted in 2017, and they were listed as operating or committed in 2021. This is a much higher progress rate for coal than for gas. Half of the gas projects in 2017 are either currently operating or committed, while only 6% of the coal projects are.
If this trend continues for five years, then only one in 16 Queensland coal projects and just one of two Queensland gas projects will proceed. Queensland could therefore expect 4,406 new gas and coal jobs.
- 3,013 more construction jobs (1,488 in coke and 1,525 in natural gas)
- 1,393 additional operational positions (1,168 jobs for coal and 225 for gas).
It’s these 4,406 jobs that wouldn’t be created if there was a ban on new coal and gas projects – a far cry from the 53,000 estimated by the Morrison government.
Some 18 projects in the dataset don’t report job numbers, and our analysis doesn’t assume any jobs from these projects. Three of these projects are either completed or committed, so there are more jobs than our estimate of 4,786. The estimate of the job losses caused by a ban is slightly lower for fifteen, which means that our estimate of how many jobs would be affected by a ban could be slightly off.
We also looked at historic data from a few committed projects that provided job number estimates. None of the projects created more jobs than their initial estimates, while some provided fewer.
In one case, Adani’s Carmichael mine, there were 975 fewer construction jobs and 2,270 fewer operational jobs in the 2021 data than estimated in 2017.
So, all this suggests even the more realistic job numbers we calculated aren’t guaranteed to come to fruition.
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Regional Queensland faces greater challenges
Queensland has committed projects that have at least 4,786 jobs. If additional projects are completed, another 4,406 job opportunities could be available in the next five years.
It is hard to give up those 4,406 jobs in the regional areas. Even a tenth of a job can make a small town a more vibrant place. The bank stays open, the school retains its teachers, and the pub is still viable. We shouldn’t dismiss the importance of this.
Queensland depends more on coal and natural gas jobs than other states. But scaremongering and inflated claims about foregone jobs don’t help the debate – or help people who live in regional areas.
If the world is serious about achieving its collective goal of net-zero emissions, we can expect Australia’s coal exports to fall Between 2020 and 2030, 60%.
It is this declining demand, and not a moratorium, that will drive the market. biggest effectRegional communities and jobs. This is where any party that wins the 2022 elections must direct its attention.
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