Part 1 discussed the more obvious environmental effects of warfare. However, it is more difficult to explain the hidden costs to our environment. Not only do there exist new methods of warfare such as cyberattacks that we need to account for but there could be lingering environmental issues this particular conflict could cause. To fully understand the environmental costs, it is important to consider all factors.
Critical Infrastructure could be down for a lot longer than we hope
What it takes to fix critical infrastructure that hackers have brought down can vary.
If it’s just a few PC-type computers or a server that’s compromised, repairs can happen fairly quickly. Competent IT shops often have disk images for a working version of the computer or server’s software. They can quickly wipe the hard drives and copy the image onto the computer, and then have it working again in no time. They might even have complete replacement computers available to swap in within minutes. In some cases, the problem can be solved immediately.
Sadly, the problem might come right back if the computer’s hardware is compromised (malware embedded in the chips or memory outside of the hard drive), a crooked employee reinfects the computers to get more cash or a reward from the enemy state, or social engineering happens again. This would appear to utility customers that service has returned and then vanished again.
There’s also the problem of damage to the infrastructure itself. Malware can cause the equipment that controls electricity, gas, and sewage to stop working. Cyberattacks can be used to tell computers to attack the systems. Deliberate overloading could result in the destruction of large transformers at utilities stations. Overly leaning, lack of cooling or other deliberate sabotage could cause damage to Combined Cycle Turbines at power plants. Sewage plants can be flooded by sewage, and pumps for any pipe could be destroyed if they are left unlubricated.
It could take weeks or months to come up with replacement parts or to rebuild complex machinery that’s damaged. For larger power transformers, replacements could take months to arrive, or they might not arrive at all because we’ve been buying them from a country we’re now at war with.
Cyberattacks and Hidden Costs to the Environment
Let’s look at common critical infrastructure types and how their outages harm the environment.
The same problem occurs with telecommunications and water outages: you will need to travel more. If you can’t get water into your home, you’ll need to go get some. Also, if you can’t talk to family around town, you’ll want to go check on them. Extra trips to work, information and other tasks that can be done online or over the telephone can add up.
Sewer outages could lead to even more serious environmental issues. As I pointed out in my “Toilet of the Future” article series, sewer malfunctions happen all the time, and often make a “stomach bug” spread through an area. Untreated sewage can cause illness and damage to the environment as well as water supplies and bodies of water. Algae blooms, low oxygen levels, and many other problems can all occur. Cyberattacks can cause this to happen in a matter of minutes or weeks. This could have far greater hidden costs and sickness to the environment than normal malfunctions.
In addition to the human suffering, electricity and gas outages can also lead to significant pollution. When people can’t get electricity from the grid, they find other ways to get it. On the surface, burning fossil fuels with a generator might seem similar to burning them in power plants, but let’s keep in mind that power plants are far more efficient and clean than a little Honda generator. Plus, the grid can incorporate renewables over time to become cleaner, while a little generator just can’t.
Alternatives for winter will be required, regardless of whether one heats their home using electricity, natural gas or propane. In most cases, the alternatives won’t be very environmentally friendly. The fireplace is the alternative at my house. It’s all bad. But as a parent, I’m a lot more interested in burning wood than watching my children freeze to death. Alternatives like portable propane heaters, pellet stoves, sleeping under running cars, and other heating options are generally not safe or sustainable.
Avoid these Hidden Costs to the Environment
This is the good news. It’s possible to build a better society that doesn’t turn into a polluting disaster zone when things go wrong.
Building resilient communities is the best way to avoid hidden environmental costs. This prepares society for the worst-case scenario, such as war, but also prepares them for natural disasters, technological malfunctions and other threats. Trees are the best way to demonstrate resilience. Rigid trees that can’t bend will get broken up by the wind. Flexible trees have strong roots to keep them from being blown away, but they can also move and adjust when it rains.
Dependence on rigid infrastructure to provide power, water, gas, and other life-sustaining services can be like being a rigid tree. Things can be done one way or they won’t get done at all. This leaves a country vulnerable for just a few failure points that cyberattackers can take out, as well as warplanes and natural disasters.
It is easier to move to decentralized models such as home-based solar+storage. Did the grid collapse? No big deal. Your home automatically switches to battery and charges the next day. You don’t lose your heat, air conditioning, fridge, or ability to cook for your family. Hackers would have a much harder time hacking thousands or millions of homes using systems by different vendors than they’d have hacking one power plant run by one company.
Obviously, other utilities like sewer service are much harder to decentralize, but even if they can’t be decentralized, they could be made less vulnerable to problems in other ways. The key is to get the public to support resilient infrastructure rather than just maintaining the status quo.
In Part 3, I’m going to cover one major hidden cost to the environment that can come from a conflict in Ukraine: nuclear proliferation.
Featured image: Figure 1-1 of the Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare Operations Field Manual 3-12. (Cropped, View the complete image here). The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), visual information does not imply endorsement by DoD.
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