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Wet, slushy snow is falling on a spring morning in Bozeman, and Cathy Whitlock, looking out her window, can see a part of Montana’s climate future — one where snowpack vital to the state’s water resources and economy becomes scarce.
The morning’s mix of snow and rain, Whitlock said, is an increasingly common type of precipitation that accumulates less as snowpack, leaving Montana without the natural frozen storage it needs to hold water in its mountains before melting and replenishing rivers, lakes and reservoirs in summer.
Whitlock, a climate scientist from Montana State University, is discussing results of the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment(GYCA), a June 20,21 report she co-authored along a group of scientists studying how climate changes will affect the Greater Yellowstone Area of the northern Rocky Mountains.
According to the report, rising temperatures in the region will reduce the amount of snowfall and shrink the snowpack by the middle of this century. Scientists have already observed a significant increase in temperature and decrease in snowfall between 1950-2018, leading to a significant loss of snowpack.
Snowpack is also the foundation of a winter recreation industry that’s important to Montana’s economy, responsible for 5,093 jobs and $303 million in income in 2016, according to a ReportUniversity of New Hampshire
“When people think about Montana, they often think about the opportunities in the winter to ski and backcountry ski and snowmobile and so on,” Whitlock said. “So we’re just trying to relate to that audience.”
And ski areas have also entered the conversation.
Ski areas in the Greater Yellowstone Area are trying to preserve their most valuable asset, and looking at ways to adapt to a warmer climate, despite a decreasing snowpack.
“We have the opportunity for our children and our grandchildren to be able to enjoy skiing, just as we’re doing now and as our parents introduced us to, if we take bold action on climate change,” said Bonnie Hickey, director of sustainability at Bridger Bowl near Bozeman.
GLOBAL WARMING HAS ALREADY CHANGED MONTANA’S WINTERS
Whitlock said that while there has been a decline in snowfall on the slopes due to increasing temperatures, Whitlock believes that this trend will continue.
“This isn’t a crime story. It’s not like we don’t know who did it,” Whitlock said. “We know what’s happening. We just need to solve it.”
According to the GYCA snowfall has declined 25% in the GYA since 1950. This is where Big Sky and Bridger bowl ski resorts are located. This means that 23 fewer inches of snow fall annually. The report also showed that the average temperature has risen by 2.3°C since 1950.
Warmer temperatures can cause more winter precipitation to be either rain or a combination of rain and/or snow, which leads to earlier runoff each year. According to the report, January snowfall has declined by an average 7.5 inches. Peak levels in spring runoff (a measure how often snowmelt is occurring) in the GYA have arrived eight days earlier than average, compared with 1950.
Even in a scenario of significant greenhouse gas emission reductions, the majority of precipitation in the GYA will still be rain or a mixture of rain and snow by 2100. Peak snowmelt is expected to occur two to three weeks earlier than the report.
“The shoulder seasons for the ski industry are just going to be less reliable, less predictable,” Whitlock said. “And the quality of the snow is definitely going to change.”
Whitlock stated that areas at lower elevations in Montana are more vulnerable to decreasing snowpack because of the increasing temperatures. According to the report, skiers can expect to see snow at 9,000 feet, with most precipitation falling below 9,000 feet, under the same warming scenario.
That leaves Montana’s ski areas in an awkward situation.
Bridger Bowl and Big Sky’s summits are at 8,800 and 11,166 feet, each. Twelve of the fifteen ski areas in Montana are lower than 9,000ft.
SUSTAINABILITY IS A CRITICAL PART OF THE SKI INDUSTRY’S BUSINESS PLAN
Ski areas are facing threats to the quality and quantity of their most crucial operating resource. To mitigate these risks, they have taken steps towards reducing their greenhouse gas emissions as well as creating revenue streams that are less dependent upon snow.
Bridger Bowl and Big Sky Resort, both part of the GYA, are working to improve energy efficiency and encourage guests to be involved in sustainability.
Bridger Bowl covers 3% of its yearly energy consumption with power from a 50-kilowatt solar panel array, the maximum size it’s allowed by state law, which is enough to run its ski patrol and Eagle Mount buildings and its beginner lifts and warming hut, Hickey said. Hickey stated that the mountain purchases new snow guns, which are more energy-efficient, and repairs leaking water lines to save snow-making electricity. Last season, it also upgraded all its light fixtures with LED bulbs.
According to an analysis, the lighting fixture project reduces carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 12 metric tons annually. Annual reportThe National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) provided a free bus service to the mountains during the 2019-20 season. This reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 31.2 metric tons. A composting program was established in the 2019-20 seasons to save 14 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Bridger Bowl released 1,198 metric tons equivalent of carbon dioxide during the 2020-21 seasons, which is a decrease from 1,621 during 2018-19, according to annual reports.
The ski area paid Native, a Vermont-based public benefit corporation, last summer to offset its carbon dioxide emissions. Native is a Montana regenerative grass project that removes carbon dioxide. The program allows ranchers to rotate their cattle through small pastures in order to reduce grazing pressure on specific areas of soil. This increases the soil’s health and ability to absorb carbon dioxide.
Big Sky Resort is currently working on similar projects such as composting, energy-efficient lights and appliances, and upgrading snow-making equipment. The resort is using more low-energy snow guns and software that help minimize the amount of water needed for each acre of terrain, according to Stacie Mesuda, Big Sky’s public relations manager.
Big Sky also purchases renewable energy certificate (REC) from CMS Enterprises in an amount equal to its electricity use. Though the resort’s energy utility, NorthWestern Energy, produces some renewable energy, Big Sky purchased RECs for all of its electricity usage due to uncertainty about how much was provided directly from those sources, according to Amy Trad, Big Sky’s sustainability specialist. Big Sky purchases one megawatt-hour from clean energy sources for each REC. The certificates finance wind energy production and development in Texas.
According to NSAA reports, Big Sky produced 8.352 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent in the 2020-21 season. This is down from the 15,704 produced during the 2019-20 season.
The resort also encourages its guests to offset their carbon emissions and provides a calculator that allows them to estimate their trip’s carbon footprint and purchase offsets through a company called Tradewater. According to the NSAA, 65 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent were offset during the 2020-21 season by Big Sky guests.
“Advocacy on the local level helps activate the public sentiment that would presumably, either with voters or consumers, influence government and big business,” said Taylor Middleton, the president of Big Sky Resort.
Both mountains are members in the NSAA Sustainableslopes Challenge & Climate Challenge. These provide resources for tracking carbon emissions, and commit ski areas and other areas to reduce waste energy and climate education.
“There’s been a critical push from Montana ski areas to advocate for climate action and policies that support a stable environment for winter sports,” said Adrienne Isaac, communications director for NSAA. She said it’s important that resorts have joined advocacy calls with elected officials, for example, and publicized sustainability projects on the mountain for visitors and potential voters.
“They’re raising that business voice,” Isaac said. “That’s so critical to getting equitable and broadscale climate action, because that’s what it’s going to take to really make a difference.”
Northwest of the GYA in Whitefish, the ski area’s tourism department and Whitefish’s tourism department announced in April that they have partnered with Protect Our Winters. The partnership focuses on raising awareness and providing information about individual actions. It will include educational videos asking visitors to donate to projects such as a solar array at the town’s wastewater treatment plant or Whitefish Mountain Resort’s conservation of whitebark pine.
“Not everyone can be a saint when it comes to being sustainable and not driving or things like that, but they can do something,” said Chad Sokol, the resort’s public relations manager. “So, it really is kind of a practical approach, a great way of looking at the climate change problem.”
Without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale, however, the declining snowpack trend won’t change. Part of the conversation about the future of skiing in the area is focused on what tools can be used to mitigate the shrinking ski season — and how to “activate summertime,” as Middleton at Big Sky Resort put it.
“We can operate a lot more efficiently if we could get a return on our investment over 12 months of the year rather than just the six months of winter,” he said.
Snowmaking helps mountains extend the ski season by filling gaps in early snowfall and supplementing the amount of snow available on skiable terrain, but it’s an expensive and complex tool because of the equipment and piping needed to move water around the mountain. Both Middleton and Isaac described it as an “insurance policy” against a period of bad snow, not a substitute for it.
“As the season progresses, snowmaking generally becomes irrelevant,” Middleton said.
About 170 acres of terrain at Big Sky are covered by snowmaking, 3% of the mountain’s total acreage, according to Trad. The resort relies on natural snow for higher-altitude, more challenging terrain. Snowmaking is primarily focused on intermediate and beginner runs at low elevations.
Snowmaking’s dependence on water and vulnerability is a problem. According to Isaac, the process is most efficient when it is below 28 degrees.
“With the best technology now, you can only make snow up to a certain temperature,” said Hickey at Bridger Bowl.
Big Sky plans to use recycled wastewater in snowmaking. Middleton stated this would happen within five years. The Yellowstone Club, a private club for members, was approved last summer by the Montana Department of Environmental Quality as the first Montana resort to make snow from recycled wastewater.
Machine-made snow is not a “silver bullet” because of temperature constraints and the need for water, Isaac said.
Summer services like golfing, mountain biking, and ziplining can add revenue to many resorts between seasons, but not at the same level as skiing or snowboarding.
If Big Sky, which has summer activities and hosts events such as weddings and concerts, could get to a point where business is just as high during the summer as winter, Middleton said, “that’s nirvana.” He estimated summer business at the mountain currently accounts for 30% of its revenue.
Bridger Bowl is near many mountain biking trails, so it’s uncertain whether that activity would be a viable operation for the mountain, Hickey said, “but anything would be an option when we enter those discussions.” The mountain was forced to delay opening this year due to low snowfall.
“We’ll adapt and be forward-thinking,” Hickey said. “As we tackle any element of planning, we’ll be looking at impacts 10 years, 20 years, 30 years down the road and making choices that help us move in the right direction to remain viable.”
Sokol described skiing and snowboarding as the “bread and butter” of Whitefish Mountain. So far, he added, the ski area hasn’t seen significant changes in the number of operating days to its season.
Showdown Mountain Resort already hosts weddings and conferences. A new trail for mountain biking will be available by next summer, according to Katie Boedecker (owner of the resort in central Montana). But changes to shoulder-season operations have “nothing to do with climate change,” she said.
“It’s a buffer against the bad season, which can happen, but the primary reason is to keep good people working year round,” Boedecker said.
Ski areas’ experience of being at the mercy of nature may be a key tool for handling declining snowpack.
“Our industry has always dealt with the major factor in our business success being something that we can’t control, which is the snow,” said NSAA’s Isaac. “As a result, we’re really flexible and adaptable, but there’s going to be a limit to what we can do.”
Whitlock, who spoke to Big Sky and Bridger Bowl following the release of the climate report, said both ski areas appreciated Montana’s focus in the report.
She added that “they get it” and are taking action one ski season at a time. But emission reductions, she said, aren’t happening fast enough.
“I don’t think anyone’s approaching the issue with enough urgency,” Whitlock said. “I don’t think people realize how imminent the threat is and the need to take action.”
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