India is experiencing an increasing heatwave as a result of climate change.

India’s heatwave this summer has already made it unbearable. “It’s become impossible to work after 10 o’clock in the morning,” said Sunil Das, a rickshaw puller in Noida on the outskirts of Delhi, which saw unprecedented heatwaves in March, a month before the weather bureau officially recognises the hot season.

Das, an outdoor worker, has had to shift their hours due to the scorching heat. “I head back home after 10 and resume in the evening when the heat has subsided a bit,” Das said. “It has reduced my earnings but what alternative do I have?”

The hottest month in 122 years was March, according to records kept by the India Meteorological Department (Met Department) or IMD. This comes after the record-breaking March heat of last year, which was the third-warmest. Scientists believe that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere is one of the reasons why the short-lived spring season has transformed into summer.

March saw a 33.10 degree Celsius average temperature, which was a sign of the onset of summer. This trend is now becoming the norm. The lack of rainfall in March was a factor that led to high temperatures. The rainfall deficit in India was as high 72%, and it rose to 89% in the Northwest.

India has seen its summer temperatures rise over the past decade. This can be seen in the increase in heatwave days that India experiences between April and June.

Extreme heat is on the rise

A Met Department study has shown that India’s heatwave days are increasing in frequency every 10 years. The study found that the number of days with extremely hot temperatures has increased from 413 in 1981-1990 to 575 by 2001-10 and 600 by 2011-20 at 103 weather stations located mostly in the inland regions.

The latest numbers, which have yet to be published are an Update on an earlier researchAt the same weather stations until 2010. Researchers found that most of the weather stations had recorded a significant increase in heatwave frequency between April 2011 and June 2012, during the 1961-2020 period.

Climate change is a major reason for this, according to D. S. Pai of the Kottayam-based Institute for Climate Change Studies. “The other reasons for the extreme departure from normal maximum temperatures include local weather conditions and other factors like increasing concretisation, deforestation and changes in land use,” said Pai, who was previously a climate scientist at IMD Pune and has been associated with the study from its inception.

Pai said that the most affected areas were mostly located in the inland regions and have experienced more than eight heatwaves over the three months of April through June. This is in contrast to the three decades preceding 1961.

According to the study, many areas in the core heatwave area, which includes north, northwest and central India, had the highest numbers of severe heatwaves during May.

India’s weather office declares a heatwave when the maximum temperature is 40 degrees Celsius and at least 4.5 notches above normal. A heatwave is declared severe by the bureau when it’s more than 6.5 degrees above normal.

“There is no doubt that extreme heat events are increasing in India,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster. “Global warming has a primary role in this, although there are several other factors at play as well.”

High heat in the Himalayas

Palawat stated that the March heat did not spare the Himalayan States of Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh. These states typically experience cooler temperatures during this time. This suggests an overall rise to temperatures across the country.

Pai also confirmed this with the IMD study, which found that the number and severity of cold waves in the mountainous regions has been declining over the past 30 years. “The past three decades have been the warmest for the country and globally,” he said. “Extreme temperature events like heatwaves are a key feature of global warming.”

The March temperatures in the IMD research are not taken into account, unlike the Climate Hazards and Vulnerability Atlas of India that was released in January. The Atlas, which covers heatwave occurrences in April, May, June, and July, indicates that within India’s core heatwave zone, parts of western Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha were the worst affected between 1961 and 2020. According to the atlas, heat waves in India are affecting 13% of the districts and 15% respectively.

“There is a definite link between climate change and the rise in average temperatures, which is worsening the impact of heatwaves,” said Palawat.

According to the The, human-induced climate change already has an impact on many weather extremes and climate conditions in every region of the globe. landmark Code Red reportThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released the report in August 2021. The report by the United Nations’ body of climate experts found that averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of heating.

The global average does not include Antarctica, but it is not true for India, where the average temperature has risen faster than ever. According to the IPCC report, India will be subject to more intense heat waves and more frequent events.

“Heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent during the 21st century,” the report said about South Asia, which includes India. This is supported by actual temperature records kept by the Met Department, which are cited in the study mentioned earlier.

Heat stress

It is now clear that extreme heat has adisproportionate effect on the poorest and marginalised in India. Additionally, almost half of India’s working age population is engaged in farming, which requires long hours of outdoor heat exposure in summer.

Add to this, the plights of construction workers, which are the second largest employer in India, and the large number rickshaw pullers Das who have to work outdoors when it is hot, and India is facing a huge problem.

While India’s average temperatures rose by more than 0.5 degrees between 1960 and 2009, the probability of a massive heat-related mortality event, defined as more than 100 deaths, shot up by as much as 146%, according to a 2017 StudyTitle Indian heat waves increase mortality risk.

“Our results suggest that even moderate and practically unavoidable increases in mean temperatures, such as 0.5 degrees Celsius, may lead to large increases in heat-related mortality, unless measures are taken to substantially improve the resilience of vulnerable populations,” the study had predicted.

In 2010, heat waves killed more than 1,300 people alone in Ahmedabad. This led to the development of coordinated efforts to create coordinated relief plans. Heat action plans.

Many cities and regions across the country have been quick to implement heat action plans for their respective cities and regions, especially those who work outdoors, since those initiatives were launched 5-6 years ago.

“In the ultimate analysis, we have no option but reduce the emission of greenhouse gases to tackle the climate crisis,” said Pai. “But till a lasting solution is found, it is important to roll out heat action plans in regions vulnerable to heatwaves. The IMD is working with various district and urban authorities in this regard.”

Palawat said that mitigation is of paramount concern in relation to the upcoming heatwaves and high summer temperatures. “Both short term measures like advisories and long-term measures like afforestation have to be simultaneously acted upon,” he said.

Continue reading: [Explainer]What are urban heat islands?

Banner image Chinawal village is at its peak of summer. India’s summer temperatures have been increasing over the past few decades. Photoby abhiriksh/Wikimedia Contents