War will be an environmental disaster for Ukraine on multiple fronts, according to any analysis of the short and long-term effects of the Russian invasion.
ut the Putin-regimes invasionmay impact the environment much more widely and deeply, particularly by disrupting the global fight to counter climate change.
The greatest immediate fear, of course, is the terrible possibility of critical damage to any of Ukraines nuclear power plants, leading to meltdown and a Chernobyl-like disaster. More, moves to mitigate the fall out may be impossible due to the conflict.
Shelling ofthe Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine by Russian troops was a remainder that a huge disaster isnot a far-fetched impossibility.
Onthe ground in highly industrialised Ukraine, the destruction will unleash all manners of toxic materials from munition and fuel dumps, military facilities, industrial sites and mines. Toxins are spreadingin the air while the ground and water is being contaminated.
Odessa near Crimea may be one of the Russian forces next target.The Odessa Port Plant, one of thelargest in Ukraine, produces ammonia, urea and other chemical products. Serious direct damage would be catastrophic.Many of Ukraines major cities contain potentially hazardous industries, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Mariupol as well as Odessa.On a global level, the short and long term impact of the war is more tricky to evaluate.
It has already stymied any meaningful resolutions coming out of the 5th UN Environmental Assembly, which convened on February 28and ended yesterday. Ironically, several years ago, Ukraine sponsored one key resolution on conflict and the environment. Another mostly regional impact willbe simple military build up in central and eastern Europe. Germany, for example, has announced it will spend 100bn on building up its military. This will not be kind to environment, either in construction or deployment.
However, high gas and oil prices may lead to a reduction in consumption while the resolve to avoid any dependence on Russian oil and gas resources in the short or long term could super-charge the drive towards renewables.
