IPCC finds the world has its best chance yet to slash emissions – if it seizes the opportunity

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The world has the best chance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions rapidly, but it is necessary to make quick cuts across all sectors and countries to keep warming to safe levels, according to the global authority on climate.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIPCCThe ) report released today says that opportunities to cut global emissions are now more affordable than ever since the 2014 assessment. However, the need to act is now more urgent.

The report is the definitive assessment on how the world is doing in addressing rising temperatures. Each contributed their expertise to the report.

We explain the key findings and what they mean for Australia, as well as Australia, in this article.

Earth remains on red alert

Glen Peters, the lead author of mitigation strategies compatible with long-term goals

The report shows that the world made progress on reducing emissions over the past ten years. The growth in greenhouse gas emissions has slowed to 1.3% per annum in the 2010s, as opposed to 2.1% in 2000.

Global emissions are still at record levels. If policy ambition does not ramp up immediately, warming will shoot past 1.5℃ and be well on the way to 2℃ – failing to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

Alarmingly, the world’s current policies put us on track for global warming of between 2.2℃ and 3.5℃ within 80 years. It’s far better than the 4℃ or more feared about a decade ago, but still far from consistent with the Paris Agreement.

To have a 50% chance of keeping global warming to 1.5℃ by century’s end, global CO₂ emissions must halve in a decade, reach net zero in the 2050s and go net negative thereafter.

These scenarios would also see a reduction in methane emissions of half by 2050.

The IPCC states that halving global carbon emissions by 2030 can be achieved and is feasible. It requires a rapid change in climate policy at all levels, across all sectors and countries.

The fastest emission reductions must be made by rich nations. This includes Australia. PlanNet zero emissions by 2050 is not enough and policy support is still lacking.

man between two TV screens displaying men's faces — Rich countries must take the greatest climate action.
EPA

More than technology

Tommy Wiedmann, author principal on emissions trends and drivers

The report is a comprehensive catalogue of what can be done – but has mostly not yet been done – to avert devastating climate change.

Some trends are encouraging. Over the past decade, 36 countries have succeeded in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the report, there have been many opportunities to reduce emissions cost-effectively and inexpensively since 2014.

This is largely due the plummeting cost of renewables, which promises to reduce emissions in other areas than the energy sector such as manufacturing and heavy transportation.
We expand the options Here.

But the pace of change is slow. The report shows that all energy efficiency improvements in the past decade have been more than offset by economic and population growth.

Technology is not the answer. We must reduce our use of high-carbon products and live more environmentally-friendly lifestyles if we are to achieve a global emission reduction of half by 2030. These, like all other changes, can’t be incremental, says the IPCC.

Australia is blessed by a wealth of renewable energy resources. Used wisely, it could slash domestic emissions and help reduce other countries’ emissions, in the form of Exports of zero-emissions energy.

ship at dock with cranes — Australia can benefit from zero-emissions energy exports. Pictured: A ship that is part of a hydrogen pilot program between Australia and Japan.
AP

No-one gets left behind

Arunima Malik, the lead author on introductions and framing

2016, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals – an action plan for people, planet and prosperity – came into effect.

Sustainable developmentThe future can be met without compromising the needs of the past. It is not possible without effective climate action, as the IPCC report demonstrates.

One Sustainable Development Goal ClearlyClimate change is the main focus of this strategy. Climate action is tied to all other goals, including energy, cities and industry, land, water, and people.

Emissions reduction strategies must be inclusive to avoid unintended consequences, such as increasing poverty and hunger. The transition to a low carbon world must be fair and inclusive.

The IPCC report calls both for accelerated climate action as well as a just transition. This requires well-designed policies at all levels and across all sectors. International cooperation is crucial.

woman looks at phone, man looks on — Sustainable development must be fair to all people.
Rodrigo Abd/AP

Is the Paris Agreement still working?

Jacqueline PeelLeah, the lead author on international cooperation

This report is the first to evaluate the Paris Agreement, which went into effect in 2020. Under the agreement, all countries must submit and update pledges regarding emissions reduction and adaptation to the changing climate.

These pledges can only be made if countries with high income provide financial support, access to clean technology, and other assistance to other countries.

The IPCC identified a deficit in global climate financing. The IPCC found that high-income countries missed their 2020 target of mobilizing $US100 billion annually.

Although the Paris Agreement is an international treaty, pledges are voluntary. Countries set their own targets and can’t be forced to meet them. Is it working?

According to this new report, it largely is – albeit slowly. It has encouraged countries such as Australia, for instance, to make more ambitious emission pledges.

It has also enhanced transparency, enabling outside groups, such as those in civil society, to assess countries’ progress.

Other international mechanisms like global business partnerships and youth climate protests are also driving the change.

To reduce emissions by half by the end of this decade, more must be done.

Climate action is being accelerated by school strikes
Julian Meehan, CC BY – SA

Cities are central

Xuemei Bai, the lead author on urban systems.

The IPCC report found around 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are produced in cities and urban areas. This presents both opportunities and challenges for emission reduction.

To date, More than 1,000Many cities around the globe have signed up for net-zero emission targets, including many in Australia.

To fulfill the Paris Agreement, more cities will need to take action and work towards achieving goals like 100% renewable energy, zero carbon transport, zero-carbon construction, and improved waste management.

Developing countries are urbanizing rapidly, which means that new infrastructure and housing is required. However, doing this in a business as usual manner could lead to substantial new emission, warns the IPCC.

To meet the climate challenge, city leaders must embrace integrated planning. This must be done while cities play an important role maintaining social, economic, and environmental well being.

We need all hands: citizens, communities, researchers, and businesses.

Hotel with plants down face — We need greener cities that emit less carbon.
Shutterstock

Grab the chance

This latest report shows how the choices we make now will determine the fate of generations to come – and all life on this planet.

Humanity has already missed so many opportunities to stabilise Earth’s climate. We now have the opportunity to correct some of those past mistakes.

Only a concerted effort from all sectors and countries, beginning today, can bring about the necessary change.

This article was written by Annette Cowie. Frank Jotzo and Jake Whitehead contributed to it. You can also see part 2 of this article Here.

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