The world can still hope to stave off the worst ravages of climate breakdown but only through a now or never dash to a low-carbon economy and society, scientists have said in what is in effect a final warning for governments on the climate.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, greenhouse gas emissions must reach a peak by 2025. They can be almost halved in the next decade to prevent future warming from exceeding 1.5C.
Even though the final cost of doing it will be minimal, only a small percentage of global GDP will be required by mid-century, it will require huge efforts by governments, businesses, as well as individuals.
The body of the top climate scientists warned that the chances of making the necessary changes were slim and that the world was not taking the necessary steps. If policies and actions are not strengthened, temperatures will rise to more than 3C with devastating consequences.
Jim Skea is a professor at Imperial College London, and co-chair of this working group. He said: It’s now or never if you want to limit global warming below 1.5C. It will not be possible without deep and immediate emissions reductions in all sectors.
The report on Monday was the third and final section of the IPCCs latest comprehensive review of climate science, drawing on the work of thousands of scientists. It takes seven years to compile an IPCC report, which could be the last warning before the world is irrevocably set on a path towards climate collapse.
Though the report found it was now almost inevitable that temperatures would rise above 1.5C the level above which many of the effects of climate breakdown will become irreversible the IPCC said it could be possible to bring them back down below the critical level by the end of this century. But this will require technologies to remove carbon dioxide, which campaigners warned would not be able to replace deep cuts in emissions.
Antnio Guterres (UN secretary general) said that some governments and businesses are lying when they claim to be on track to 1.5C. In a strongly worded rebuke, he warned: Some government and business leaders are saying one thing but doing another. They lie. The results will be disastrous.
Soaring energy prices and the war in Ukraine have prompted governments to rethink their energy policies. Many countries including the US, the UK and the EU are considering ramping up fossil fuels as part of their response, but the IPCC report made clear that increasing fossil fuels would put the 1.5C target beyond reach.
Guterres stated that inflation is increasing and that the war in Ukraine has caused food and energy prices skyrocket. However, increasing fossil fuel production will only exacerbate the situation.
John Kerry, the US special presidential ambassador for climate, called this report a defining moment in the history of the planet and warned governments to move faster. The report shows us that we are failing to act quickly enough to avoid the worst effects of the climate crisis, and mobilise global action. He said that the report shows us that we have the tools to achieve our goals and cut greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030, reach net zero in 2050, and create a cleaner, healthier planet.
The IPCC working group 3 report found:
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Coal must be effectively phased out if the world is to stay within 1.5C, and currently planned new fossil fuel infrastructure would cause the world to exceed 1.5C.
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A third of methane emissions must be cut.
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It will be necessary to grow forests and preserve soils, but tree-planting can’t do enough for continuing emissions from fossil fuels.
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Six times less investment is needed to shift to a low carbon world than it should be.
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All areas of the global economy must change rapidly and dramatically, including energy, transport, buildings, and food. New technologies, such as hydrogen fuel and carbon capture, storage, and storage, will be required.
Professor of soils and global changes at Aberdeen University, Pete Smith, stated that the time is now. We have only a decade to make progress. We still use fossil fuels for many of these things.
Poor countries warned that they were not equipped to make the necessary changes. They needed financial assistance from richer nations in order to cut their carbon emissions and adapt to the effects of the climate crisis. Madeleine Diouf Sarr is the chair of the UN climate group for the least developed countries. She stated that there can’t be any new fossil fuel infrastructure. The emissions from existing and planned infrastructure are more than the scenarios that would allow us to limit warming to 1.5C, with no or limited overshoot. We cannot afford not to use fossil fuels.
Professor emerita of energy policies at Exeter University, Catherine Mitchell, stated that the needs of the least developed countries must be prioritized. Social justice is essential if we want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions faster. These are all interrelated issues.
Publication of the report was delayed for a few hours due to lengthy negotiations between scientists and governments. These sessions culminated late Sunday night with a dispute over the final messages in a 63-page summary for policymakers. While the IPCC reports are headed by scientists, governments can influence the final messages in this summary for policymakers.
According to The Guardian, India, Saudi Arabia, and China have questioned messages regarding financing emission reductions in developing countries and phasing away fossil fuels. Scientists stressed that all 195 countries had agreed to the final summary.
This was the third installment of the sixth assessment report of the IPCC, and covered ways to reduce emissions. It follows a previous section published in August warning that climate change is irreversible. The second section, published at the beginning of February, warned of catastrophic consequences.
