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Kerry faces difficulties at home as well: Congress is yet to pass President Joe Biden’s climate and economic bill. It contains billions in clean-energy tax credits.
John Podesta (the top climate adviser to Obama’s administration) said that Kerry had been “a very effective envoy” and tried to push people towards greater ambition. “In light Putin’s attack on Ukraine the diplomacy gets even more difficult.”
Kerry’s message is clear: The climate crisis must not be ignored while short-term growth in fossil fuels takes place.
Kerry stated to CNN that “Obviously, the entire fuel picture and gas picture of Europe has changed overnight.” “It’s not easy, but we’ve got the will to get through it. [Climate change]It is not something that will disappear. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine doesn’t mean “okay, climate over. We don’t need to worry about that.”
It is still too early to determine whether Russia’s war on Ukraine and the resulting energy shortage will have a positive or negative impact on climate. However, it is very bad in the short term as countries rush to use traditional fossil fuels as a way to make up the gap.
Kerry cautioned that any increase in domestic fossil fuel consumption must be short-term and have an off ramp.
Kerry stated that this is not a free pass to pollute like mad. “It must be a responsible effort to fill a short term gap, but with a clear strategy for where you want to go in terms reducing emissions.”
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s latest report states that the world has only three years to reduce its carbon emissions and rapidly decarbonize. To reduce global temperature rises, countries need to abandon fossil fuels and switch quickly to more affordable renewables. Scientists say that we have plenty of cheap energy from wind and solar. What’s missing is the political will to do so.
Kerry’s job right now is to instill that will.
Jonathan Pershing, his former top deputy, said to CNN that diplomacy is “the art of letting another person have their way.” “Kerry’s very good at it.”
“Can they run faster?”
There is also a geopolitical map to the Russia-Ukraine conflict that could be created with two blocs: one that uses renewable energy and the other which sticks with fossil fuel, Podesta said to CNN.
“You have an international environment that feels like its cracking into two camps,” Podesta stated, putting the US and Western Europe in one camp and Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia in the other. It’s possible that you have both an east bloc or a west bloc. This is something we haven’t had since the 1990s. What does that mean for climate? My guess is Kerry will try to keep the global system together. But that could be a lot harder.”
Podesta stated that he could easily see China becoming the leader of a bloc that was “both strategic as well as economic.”
“The question is: Do they want to be the leader in the old economy, as Europe and the US are trying create a new one?” He said.
Kerry stated, “We haven’t stopped talking to China.” “Obviously, if China doesn’t do enough, then we won’t get to where we want to go.” Kerry said. It is very, very important that we continue to work with them.”
Kerry was in China last year ahead of COP26. He said that he had continued to have virtual talks with Xie Zihenhua, China’s climate envoy. Kerry stated to CNN that the virtual meetings continued into 2022 and that he hopes to have a regular meeting schedule between both countries.
CNN’s Pershing said that the relationship between Kerry & China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua was of paramount importance.
Pershing, who resigned from Kerry’s office to return to the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation to serve as director of its environment program, said that although they don’t always agree on fundamental issues, they respect each others enough to engage one another.
Pershing stated that the US and China had a relationship that was open to new possibilities through regular virtual engagements and in-person meetings.
“Did it shift US-China dynamics?” He added that it didn’t. “But that wasn’t.” [Kerry’s]Intent — His intent was to open up the door far enough for a successful negotiation regarding a climate agenda.
China is still a challenge. The country has doubled its dependence on coal due to slowing domestic economic growth and concerns about energy security.
CNN’s Li Shuo, a climate analyst at Greenpeace China, stated that the country experienced power shortages last autumn. “This, along with the ongoing crisis within Ukraine, creates a strong desire and need for stability and self sufficiency. This anxiety is calmed by more coal.
Shuo noted that China had approved new coal plants as early as the year. Other pro-coal policies may follow. Pershing and Shuo also noted that China is investing with extraordinary speed in renewable energy. China is the world’s leader in increasing its renewable capacity. It accounts for 43% of global capacity growth and will add close to 50 gigawatts offshore wind by 2021.
Pershing noted that Shenzen in China has more electric busses than all the rest of world.
Pershing stated, “This isn’t a failure.” “This is ‘can we go faster?'” Pershing stated.
Shuo stated that renewables are able to boost China’s economic growth in the same way that coal plants do. Therefore, they will continue to grow quickly in China.
Shuo said, “Our challenge while building new and cleaner energy, how can we bid goodbye to the dirty and old.”
The climate at home
Kerry could face a lot of challenges this year, not just in his diplomatic travels.
CNN heard Kerry tell CNN that his team’s main task heading into COP27 Sharm-el-Sheikh (Egypt) this year will be to get other countries on track to meeting the Glasgow goals. The US goals are still unmet — Biden’s goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030 is dependent on Congress passing a climate bill.
There are only six months before the UN summit in Egypt and the midterm elections. Democrats have a very limited window to pass a bill. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who defeated Biden’s larger bill with its $555 billion climate and clean energy funding, is their swing vote.
Manchin is currently back in talks with the White House to discuss a smaller bill for clean-energy measures, fueled in part by the European crisis in energy. Kerry had dinner with Manchin while they were in Paris for an international conference on energy. He said that a climate bill being passed by the Senate this year was a “real possibility.”
Kerry said to CNN that he didn’t want anyone to speculate about what would happen if they didn’t. “I’m going count on it, because it’s something we have to do.”
Without legislative progress, US leverage entering COP27 could plummet. Other countries have asked US climate diplomats to tell them where the domestic Congressional action is.
Pershing stated, “They do ask — they should ask,” pointing out the “checkered past” and inconsistent US climate policies that have fluctuated with the will of each president.
However, Kerry’s decision to stay in his position longer than expected is a win, according to those close to Biden’s envoy.
Pershing stated, “Kerry’s also gotstanding.” “It means that people respect him, they give him a hearing, they give him the entrée to have the discussion.”
