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George Mason University’s Jim Kinter says an additional foot of rising sea levels by 2050 will adversely affect U.S. national security while simultaneously inflicting potentially “devastating” consequences to a Virginia economy dependent on a robust military presence.
“The rising relative sea level has several implications for infrastructure at the coast, including more frequent high-tide flooding, greater depth and area of inundation in case of severe weather, and Chesapeake Bay storm surge that can damage or destroy dry-dock, water treatment and other facilities at the water’s edge,” said Kinter, the director of Mason’s Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) within Mason’s College of Science. “Nuisance flooding and catastrophic inundation also affect the residences of military personnel and the communities in which they live.”
Kinter’s assessment is based on the release of the latest climate data ReportFrom the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Human-caused climate change has caused global sea-level rise at an unprecedented rate. This is due in large part to the burning fossil fuels. It has also exacerbated the effects of relative sea level in eastern North America. According to the report, the ocean levels along the coasts of the United States will rise by as much in 2050 as they did over the past century.
And that directly affects Virginia’s 27 military installations, more than half of which are in the Tidewater area, including the world’s largest navy base in Norfolk.
“The presence of so many military installations and personnel in Virginia obviously makes the U.S. military a substantial contributor to Virginia’s economy,” he said. “In the worst-case scenario, if the military finds it too costly or difficult to maintain bases in Virginia and it decides to relocate those bases, the cost to the Virginia economy would be devastating, as other areas experiencing base closures have discovered.”
Kinter stated that moving, elevating and protecting are three different things. Costs for roads, dry docks, and other infrastructure could reach hundreds of millions.
The Pentagon has repeatedly called global temperature change a national security problem because infrastructure degradation caused by climate change could potentially hinder or stop the deployment of U.S. military force in times of crisis.
Kinter suggested a multipronged approach which could mitigate future damages to our commonwealth. In order to prevent global warming from exceeding 2 degrees centigrade, Virginia and the U.S. must reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Another important step is to reduce groundwater extraction in southern Virginia, and find alternative sources of water. He said that it is crucial to increase the resilience of communities as well as facilities to the inevitable climate change impacts.
Jim KinterYou can reach us at [email protected].
Contact us for more information John Hollisat [email protected].
About Mason
George Mason University is Virginia’s largest public research university. Mason is located near Washington, D.C. and has 39,000 students from all 50 states and 130 countries. Mason has experienced rapid growth over the last 50 years. It is known for its innovation, entrepreneurship and remarkable diversity as well as its commitment to accessibility. Mason celebrates 50 Years as an independent institution in 2022. Find out more at www.gmu.edu.
