The current government in the centre is not in any hurry to achieve its grandly stated targets. According to the Prime Minister, Acche Din has been delayed by 25 years.
This year’s budget for the union is a “100-year” budget. It makes no sense for 2022, presumably. Minister Piush Goel announced at a press conference after the budget was released that this budget “lays the foundation for future.”
The BJP is in power for eighteen years now, and even though it is still at its foundation stage, it does not seem to offer much hope. It is therefore not surprising that Mr. Modi made the Delphic proclamation in Glasgow in December 2021, stating that India will achieve Net Zero emissions by 2070 – two generations away from now – at his Delphic address. It is the norm. It is based upon the assumption that, since we all die eventually, it doesn’t matter what you promise as long as it is far enough into the future.
We cannot achieve Net Zero in this century due to the terrible environmental policies of this government. It seems that Modi thinks it is sufficient to increase solar power to 350 GW by 2030. This is a necessary step, but it is not sufficient without considering other equally important dimensions.
Attaining net zero requires two broad strategies, sequestering/capturing emissions that are occurring and reducing emissions. The government seems to be only half-heartedly working on the first, and worse, completely neglecting the second.
India produced 2.41 billion tonnes CO2 in 2020, which is 7% of global emissions. The target is to reduce this figure by 1 billion tonnes by 2050 and capture any remaining carbon dioxide. This will allow India to achieve Net Zero status. If we continue to pursue our current policies, it doesn’t appear that we can meet either target.
It is essential that fossil fuels be largely replaced by renewable energy in order to reduce the 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. In percentage terms, we will do this by reducing the amount of coal in our energy mix from 70-75% to 40-45%. However, the bad news about this is that coal consumption will rise dramatically in absolute terms.
Vinod Tewari, the Additional Secretary to the Ministry of Coal, stated that coal consumption is expected to nearly double by 2030. It will go from 930 million tonnes currently to approximately 1700 million tonnes by 2030. Both domestic production and imports will increase in proportion. To meet this demand, the government will continue aggressively exploring for new coal blocks. Even after 2030, coal demand will continue to rise. According to Tewari, peaking is only expected between 2040-45. This does not give hope that 1 billion m.t of emissions will be reduced by 2050.
There is a greater concern, even if we reach the 1 billion tonne reduction target: How do we capture the 1.50 Billion tonnes plus of emissions that are being pumped into our atmosphere each year?
I have yet not seen any signs of CCS ( Carbon Capture and Sequestration). This policy, which is estimated to cost approximately US$400billion ( 2.4% of India’s GDP) by 2050, has yet to be implemented. We can only do the job with the natural, God-given mechanism that is our natural forests, and their ecosystems. A hectare of moderately dense forests can act as a carbon sink for 147 tons of CO2 and can continue doing so for 100 years, provided it is not cleared.
This is the crux problem: we are ravaging our forests and destroying their carbon sequestration capacity on an unprecedented scale, which is vital to our Net Zero targets.
The Indian State of the Forest Reports (ISFR, Indian State of the Forest Reports), will never tell the truth. It will continue to conceal the true facts behind a thicket of dubious methodologies, self-serving interpretive methods and internationally rejected values. It claims that the country’s forest coverage is increasing each year, but its own data does not support this claim. Between 2015 and 2021, dense forests covered 31367 sq. kms (or 3.136 million ha) have been reduced to scrub and barren land, a loss in carbon sink capacity of 450 million tonnes CO2.
There is more: 9.40million mature trees have been felled in 2016-20 for various purposes. This results in a loss of 141 million tonnes CO2 of sequestration potential. I could give you more numbers, but they are not necessary. This is why Net Zero by 2100 seems impossible given the rate at which nature is being destroyed. Instead of increasing our sequestration capacity, we are determined to reduce it!
His government of narrow tradesmen, Mr. Modi, does not consider the natural environment important and views it as a resource that can be exploited to benefit their cronies. Act by Act, rule after rule, the regulatory framework that was meticulously crafted over many years in consultation with civil society and environmentalists are being demolished. Rivers are being disregarded or diverted, Protected Areas become denotified, roads are built through tiger reserves, the Himalayas are being gang-raped by “developers”, and its precious glaciers are threatened. The Western Ghats are not being granted the protection that at least two expert panels have demanded. To facilitate this pillaging of nature and carpet bombing, all relevant legislation, including the Forest Conservation Act, Wildlife Protection Act and Environment Protection Act, has been amended.
The concept of forestry has changed from “protect” to “management” and states are being encouraged to “coerce” environmental and forest clearances without proper scrutiny. This unholy haste has resulted in 11500 forest approvals being granted between 2014 and 2019. The approval rate is astonishingly high at 99%! This is the scene of a massacre that is not being witnessed by the courts. Experts and villager protests are ignored. We are all facing the consequences of climate change, global warming, and other anthropogenic disasters. But, for this government, “ease of doing business” is the only way to go.
Current policies do not address the main milestones of the Net Zero path, which are absolute reductions in fossil-fuel consumption and sequestration. We don’t have a national energy policy, there isn’t a clear path to Net Zero status, CCS plans are not mentioned, and reports about the state and health of our forests are still being fudged. All we can do is hope that everything will be fine in the new Amrit Kaal. As we continue to make progress towards this new mirage the time is running out fast.
Avay Shukla is now retired from Indian Administrative Service.
