The current government at the centre is not in hurry to achieve its grandly declared targets. We are able to confirm that Acche Din was deferred for 25 years by the Prime Minister.
This year’s budget for the union is a “100-year” budget. It makes no sense for 2022, presumably. Minister Piush Goel announced at a press conference after the budget was released that this budget “lays the foundation for future.”
The BJP has been in power now for eight years and even though it is still at its foundation stage, this does not give much hope. This is why Mr. Modi’s Delphic proclamation to Glasgow in December 2021 that India would achieve net zero emissions by 2070, two generations after now, is not surprising. It is the norm. It is based upon the assumption that, since we all die eventually, it doesn’t matter what you promise as long as it is far enough into the future.
We cannot achieve Net Zero in this century due to the terrible environmental policies of this government. Mr. Modi seems unable to believe that it is enough just to boost solar power to 350 GW by 2030. This is a necessary step, but it is not sufficient without considering other equally important dimensions.
Attaining net zero requires two broad strategies, sequestering/capturing emissions that are occurring and reducing emissions. This government seems to be only half-heartedly working on the first, and worse, completely neglecting the second.
India produced 2.41 trillion tonnes of CO2 in 2020 (7% global emissions). The goal is to reduce that by 1,000,000 tonnes by 2050, and then capture the rest. This would make India Net Zero. If we continue to pursue our current policies, it doesn’t appear that we can meet either target.
It is essential that fossil fuels be largely replaced by renewable energy in order to reduce the 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. In percentage terms, we will do this by reducing the amount of coal in our energy mix from 70-75% to 40-45%. The bad news is that the absolute consumption of coal will increase dramatically.
Vinod Tewari (Additional Secretary, Ministry of Coal), stated that coal consumption will almost double by 2030, from the current 930m tonnes to around 1700m tonnes. Both domestic production and imports will increase in proportion. To meet this demand, the government will continue aggressively exploring for new coal blocks. Even after 2030, the demand for coal will continue to rise; Tewari predicts that peaking will occur between 2040 and 45. This doesn’t give much hope that we will achieve the 1 billion m.t reduction in emissions by 2050.
There is a greater concern, even if we reach the 1 billion tonne reduction target: How do we capture the 1.50 Billion tonnes plus of emissions that are being pumped into our atmosphere each year?
I have not yet seen any indications of a CCS policy (Carbon Capture and Sequestration). This policy is expected to cost approximately US$400billion ( 2.4% of India’s GDP) by 2050. We can only do the job with the natural, God-given mechanism that is our natural forests, and their ecosystems. A hectare of moderately dense forest can act as a carbon sink, storing 147 tonnes of CO2 and can do so for up to 100 years – provided it isn’t deforested.
That is the crux and essence of the problem. We are ravaging and dismantling our forests on a massive scale, destroying their carbon sequestration capacity forever, which is crucial for reaching our Net Zero goals.
The Indian State of the Forest Reports (ISFR) will not tell you the truth. They continue to hide the real facts behind dubious methodology, self-serving interpretations, and internationally rejected values. The ISFR continues to claim that India’s forest cover is increasing year after year, despite not supporting these claims. Between 2015 and 2021, dense forests covered 31367 sq. kms (3.136 million hectares), degraded into barren and scrub land- a loss of 450 millions tonnes of carbon.
There are more: 9.40million mature trees were felled between 2016-20 to support various projects. This amounts to an additional 141,000,000 tonnes CO2 of sequestration capacity. I could give you more numbers, but they are not necessary. This is why Net Zero by 2100 seems impossible given the rate at which nature is being destroyed. Instead of increasing our sequestration capacity, we are determined to reduce it!
His government of narrow tradesmen, Mr. Modi, does not consider the natural environment important and views it as a resource that can be exploited to benefit their cronies. Act by Act, rule after rule, the regulatory framework that was meticulously crafted over many years in consultation with civil society and environmentalists are being demolished. Rivers are being disregarded or diverted, Protected Areas become denotified, roads are built through tiger reserves, the Himalayas are being gang-raped by “developers”, and its precious glaciers are threatened. The Western Ghats are not being granted the protection that at least two expert panels have demanded. To facilitate this pillaging of nature and carpet bombing, all relevant legislation, including the Forest Conservation Act, Wildlife Protection Act and Environment Protection Act, has been amended.
The very definition of forestry is being changed. It has gone from “protection” to “management”, and states are being encouraged. Perhaps “coerced” would be a better term, to grant environmental and forest clearances to states without proper scrutiny. This unholy haste has resulted in 11500 forest approvals being granted between 2014 and 2019. The approval rate is astonishingly high at 99%! The courts are silent spectators to this devastation. Experts and villager activists are ignored. We are all facing the consequences of climate change, global warming, and other anthropogenic disasters. But, for this government, “ease of doing business” is the only way to go.
The policies currently in place are failing to address two key milestones of the Net Zero path: absolute reductions in fossil fuel consumption and sequestration. We don’t have a national energy policy, there’s no clear path to Net Zero status, CCS plans are not mentioned, and reports about the state and health of our forests continue being fudged. All we can do is hope that everything will be fine in the new Amrit Kaal. We are moving towards this new mirage but time is running out.
Avay Shukla has been retired from the Indian Administrative Service.
