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It is spring in Delhi — the three weeks spanning mid-February and early-March when all Delhi dwellers experience exhilarating optimism about their lives and their futures. The air is simply “moderate” to “poor” (and not “severe”), as per the various air quality index (AQI) applications on our phones. The Mughal gardens are open to the public in full bloom. Our public gardens are crowded with people enjoying picnicking among the roses, tombs, and preening peacocks.
Life is good. The Supreme Court is mostly operating in physical mode. The temperature is comfortable enough that we lawyers can sit down and sip tea under the high-ceilinged, open-air corridors while we gossip. Our multi-layered, mostly dark advocate uniform is not dripping with sweat. I was enjoying this moment of relative joy when I read portions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report. Perhaps, I shouldn’t have.
The IPCC, an international group of nearly 270 experts representing 67 countries, was assembled by the United Nations and gave a dire assessment of the future prospects for our planet. In its sixth assessment report, titled ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, the IPCC discusses the increasing extreme heat, rising oceans, melting glaciers, falling agricultural productivity, resultant food shortages and increase in diseases like dengue and zika. Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary General, quoted in The New York Times, describes the IPCC report as being “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.” He added, “With fact upon fact, this report reveals how people, and the planet are getting clobbered by climate change”.
Now those of us who live in India don’t need the UN Secretary General to tell us that climate change is clobbering us. We are living in the future predicted to be predicted by the IPCC. Cities are experiencing more frequent extreme heat wave. The AQI for winter months in Delhi is between 300-500. This is equivalent to smoking one to two packs a day. According to IQ Air, Kolkata, Mumbai, and Delhi are among the 15 most polluted places in the world.
The IPCC warns that should our planet get warmer than 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times (we are at 1.1 degrees at present), then there will be irreversible impact on “ecosystems with low resilience” such as polar, mountain and coastal ecosystems “impacted by glacier melt, and higher sea level rise”. This will cause devastation to “infrastructure in low-lying coastal settlements, associated livelihoods and even erosion of cultural and spiritual values.” The increased heat will lead to an increase in diseases like diabetes, circulatory and respiratory conditions, as well as mental health challenges. Climate change is a serious threat to our minds, our lungs, and our livelihoods.
The IPCC also highlights that climate “maladaptation” will especially affect “marginalised and vulnerable groups adversely, indigenous people, ethnic minorities, low-income households and informal settlements” and those in rural areas. India, where the majority of its population falls within these categories, will suffer especially.
Esha Roy Amitabh SinhaIn their reports The Indian ExpressNote that India is a vulnerable hotspot as the IPCC calls it. There are many cities and regions in India that are facing climate change phenomena like heatwaves, sea-level rising, and flooding. For instance, Mumbai is at high risk of sea-level rise and flooding, and Ahmedabad faces the danger of heat waves — these phenomena are already underway in both cities. Sub-tropical areas like Rajasthan, Assam, and Punjab will see an increase in vector-borne and waterborne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and other vector-borne diseases.
The nutritional quality of grains, including wheat, will be affected by an increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. This does not mean that we will face a food crisis. Tucked away in annexure I of the IPCC report, I found a chilling factoid — that over the past 30 years, major crop yields have decreased by 4-10 per cent globally due to climate change. India, which is still a predominantly agricultural country, is likely to be the most affected.
But it’s not only our agrarian sectors that will be affected. Anjal Prakash, one of the lead authors of the chapter on cities and settlements, wrote that “urban India is at greater risk than other areas with a projected population of 877 million by 2050 nearly double of 480 million in 2020. The concentration of population in these cities will make them extremely vulnerable to climate change.”
We Indians know that we are experiencing the adverse consequences of the impacts of climate daily — the extreme heat, dirty air, poor quality of food grains. Our streets are clogged by gas-guzzling vehicles and our elders are mostly diabetic. Yet, our political class doesn’t have a cohesive and urgent policy agenda to combat rising carbon emissions and our shrinking life spans.
The problem is that climate change can only be combated by fiscal expenditure and policy reforms driven by political will. Results will be visible in a decade. Two election cycles is too many for our politicians. The primary electoral issues will remain temples and mosques, dress codes, and prohibited foods. These issues assume that we will continue to live the same way as before, but ignore the obvious question: Will it be possible to survive?
This column first appeared in the print edition on March 5, 2022 under the title ‘Climate of denial’. The writer is a senior advocate at Supreme Court.
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