The thawing of permafrosts has an effect on the planet’s carbon: Arctic permafrost is home to 1,700 billion metric tonnes of carbon, methane, and carbon dioxide. This is roughly 51 times the amount carbon released by fossil fuel emissions in 2019. Although plant matter that has been frozen in permafrost won’t decay, when it thaws, microbes living in the permafrost begin to decompose the matter and release carbon into the atmosphere.
Current models predict that well will see a pulse from the permafrost in the atmosphere within about 100 years. This could be sooner than previously thought, according to Kimberley Miner, a climate researcher at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory (South California) and lead author. The details of the carbon release, including the source and amount, are not yet known.
The worst-case scenario would be for all the carbon dioxide or methane to be released in a very short period of time, like a few years. Another scenario is the gradual release carbon. Scientists hope to be able to determine the likelihood of either scenario with more information.
The review paper confirmed that the Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, but it did not provide any conclusive evidence on how increasing carbon emissions could cause Arctic conditions to become more dry or wetter. More certain is the fact that changes in Antarctica and Arctic will cause lower latitudes. The Earth’s polar regions are crucial in stabilizing the planet’s climate. They are responsible for the heat transfer from the equator to higher latitudes. This creates atmospheric circulation which powers the jet stream, and other currents. A warmer Arctic without permafrost would have enormous consequences for Earth’s climate and weather.
An integrated approach
Scientists are increasingly turning to integrated Earth observations from ground, air and space to understand the effects. Each approach has its own advantages and disadvantages.
Ground measurements can be used to monitor changes in a specific area. Space-based and airborne measurements can cover large areas. Ground and airborne measurements are limited to the time they were collected. Satellites, however, monitor the entire Earth continuously, although they may be limited by cloud cover, time of day or the end of a satellite mission.
Scientists hope that combining measurements from several platforms will allow them to get a better picture of changes at the poles where permafrost is thawing at its fastest.
Miner works with colleagues on the ground to characterize microbes frozen in Permafrost. Others use airborne instruments to measure greenhouse gas emissions such as methane. Additionally, airborneSatellite missions and satellites can be used to locate hotspots for emissions in permafrost.
There are also satellite missions that will provide higher resolution data on carbon emissions. The ESA (European Space Agency), Copernicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission is a satellite mission that will map changes to land cover and help monitor soil properties, water quality, and other aspects. NASAs Geology and Surface BiologyThe (SBG) mission will also use satellite based imaging spectroscopy (SBIS) to collect data on research areas such as plants and their health, changes to the land due to events like landslides or volcanic eruptions, and snow and ice accumulation and melt. This is related to how much heat is reflected into space.
SBG is the focus of one of the future Earth science missions of NASA’s Earth System Observatory. These satellites together will give a 3D, holistic picture of Earth from its surface to its atmosphere. They will provide information about climate change, extreme storms and water availability.
Miner stated that everyone is racing to grasp what’s happening at poles. The more we know, the better we’ll be able to plan for the future.
