In late February, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine to bomb apartments, hospitals, and even a nuclear power station. He also upended the energy system that indirectly supports his illegal war.
Four of the world’s largest fossil fuel companies pledged to leave Russia. They also abandoned more than $20 million (18 billion) of assets. Germany, the largest customer, has stopped a ready to go pipeline that would have brought it Russian gas. The US placed sanctions on all Russian fossil fuels while the UK announced that it would cease buying Russian oil. The EU announced plans for reducing Russian gas imports by 80% and phasing out all other Russian oil imports by 2027.
Now, energy markets are in one their deepest crises in price and supply in decades. “We don’t know how this will develop,” Maria Pastukhova, a Berlin-based expert in the geopolitics and energy transitions at E3G, said.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the worst energy crises in decades.
Europe’s frenetic effort to end its dependence on Russian gas is speeding up the transition to clean energy and pushing it towards fuels it must phase-out to prevent global temperatures from rising. This comes as a landmark UN scientific report warns that any delay in climate action will leave a “brief and quickly closing window of opportunity to ensure a livable, sustainable future for all”.
Within two weeks of Russia’s invasion, the EU announced plans that it would install heat pumps, solar panels, wind turbines and solar panels faster than ever before. Germany committed 200 billion to decarbonize its electricity supply by 2035. But at the same time, the bloc’s largest economy promised to build two liquefied natural gas terminals as part of a continental push to replace Russian gas with fossil fuels shipped from elsewhere. Fears that Putin could suddenly shut off the gas tap and sky-high gas prices are also threatening a return of coal, a dirty fuel that leaders had promised not to dump.
Hannah Daly, University College Cork lecturer in sustainable energies in Ireland, stated that “there’s an opportunity for this to drive forward clean energy transition very rapidly.” “But there are also dangerous signals that policies might work in the other direction.”
Replacing Russian fossil fuels
Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of oil and fossil gas. It has sold more than 11 billion euros to the EU in fuels since the beginning of the invasion. These fuels are used to heat homes, power cars engines, and generate electricity.
Policymakers face a difficult problem: how do they ensure that there is enough fuel for next year’s winter?
Georg Zachmann, a climate expert at the Brussels-based economic thinktank Bruegel, stated that if Russia imposes an embargo or cuts off gas, we would burn more coal, and generate higher emissions in short-term. “But, we will also massively invest in renewables and heat pump, and we’ll get through this transition faster than we initially thought.”
The EU has proposed a double strategy to reduce its dependence on Putin’s natural gas. It will promote green investments and swap Russian gas for fuels from other nations. The bloc plans to ship 50 million cubic meters of LNG annually from countries such as Qatar, Egypt, and the US. which extracts two-thirds of its gas through fracking, a more environmentally destructive form of production. The EU wants to add 10 billion cubic meters to its pipelines to countries like Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan.
Gas is not like oil, which can be shipped cheaply around the globe in its natural state. Instead, it must be transported via pipelines, or cooled to extremely low temperatures so that it can be transported in liquid form on tankers.
Germany’s plans to build new terminals for LNG shipments along its northern coast by 2020 could lead to a dependence on foreign fuels that it will need to abandon in order to keep rising temperatures at bay. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the terminals would be used later to receive hydrogen shipments. This fuel can be made cleanly from electricity from renewable sources, but experts are skeptical.
It can take many years to build the infrastructure necessary to transport LNG.
Gas demand is declining
More than a third (33%) of EU’s planned gas saving this year comes from policies to reduce fossil fuel demand. This includes building more solar panels and turbines, making buildings more efficient and installing heat pump. These policies should account for at least twice the amount by the end the decade.
However, these numbers are not meaningful unless there is real change on the ground. Jan Rosenow is the European director of Regulatory Assistance Project. This organization works to decarbonize the power industry. He said that concrete actions should include a review of the permitting processes for renewable energies, a shift in subsidy from gas boilers towards heat pumps, as well as a public information campaign to conserve energy at home.
During the 1970s oil crisis, governments encouraged citizens to save energy.
European leaders have so far largely avoided discussing the last one. Noah Gordon, a climate expert from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (a nonpartisan think-tank), said, “I understand why they don’t.” “Asking people for a reduction in their consumption is bad politics, even in rich and green Europe.”
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average EU home has a thermostat set at over 22 degrees Celsius. A 1 C drop in temperature would reduce gas demand by 7%. It is possible to save as much gas by turning it down a few degrees and wearing extra slippers and jumpers.
A few politicians have spoken in favor of personal improvements. Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy and climate minister, stated that “if you want to hurt Putin a bit then save energy.” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, echoed this sentiment to ZDF, Germany’s public broadcaster. “We can all contribute towards becoming independent from Russian Gas, let alone fossil Fuels, by saving our energy. Josep Borrell, the EU top official, addressed the need for temperature adjustment in a speech before the European Parliament. He said: “European residents need to turn down the heat inside their homes.”
All experts interviewed for this article stressed that individual actions must be encouraged as part a structural shift in the way the continent heats its homes, generates electricity, and other aspects of the economy.
Pastukhova, E3G, stated that the new plans to increase renewable energy investments, insulate buildings and install heat pumps “should have occurred much, much sooner.” “And this is now what the EU must learn the hard lesson.”
Edited By: Tamsin W. Walker
