Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February and bombed apartments, hospitals, and even the nuclear power plant. This was the same energy system which indirectly funds his illegal war.
Four of the largest fossil fuel companies in the world promised to leave Russia, leaving behind more than $20 billion (18 million) worth of assets. Germany, the largest customer, has stopped a ready to go pipeline that would have brought it Russian gas. The US placed sanctions on all Russian fossil fuels while the UK announced that it would cease buying Russian oil. The EU announced plans this year to reduce Russian gas imports in half and eliminate all remaining Russian oil imports by 2027.
Now energy markets are experiencing one of the deepest crises of supply and price in decades. Maria Pastukhova, a Berlin-based expert in geopolitics and energy transitions at E3G, said that they don’t know how it will turn out.
The Russian invasion in Ukraine has created one of the most severe energy crises in decades.
Europe’s mad rush to get rid of Russian gas is accelerating its transition to clean power, while pushing it towards fuels that it must phase out in order to stop global temperatures spiraling higher. This comes as a landmark UN scientific report warns that any delay in climate action will leave a “brief and quickly closing window of opportunity to ensure a livable, sustainable future for all.”
Within two weeks of the Russian invasion the EU announced plans for installing wind turbines, solar panels, and heat pumps faster than ever. Germany committed 200 billion to decarbonize its electricity supply by 2035. But at the same time, the bloc’s largest economy promised to build two liquefied natural gas terminals as part of a continental push to replace Russian gas with fossil fuels shipped from elsewhere. Fears that Putin could suddenly turn off gas supply and sky-high gas prices are also threatening a return of coal, a dirty fuel that leaders had promised not to dump.
Hannah Daly, University College Cork’s lecturer in sustainable energy, said that there is a chance to catalyze this in order to accelerate the clean energy transition very quickly. “But there are also dangerous signals that policies might work in the other direction.”
Replacing Russian fossil fuels
Russia is the world’s biggest exporter of oil and fossil gas. Since the invasion, Russia has sold the EU more 11 billion dollars in fuels, which are used to heat homes and power cars.
The problem for policymakers is how to ensure enough fuel for next winter, if the supply ceases.
Georg Zachmann, a climate analyst from Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic think-tank, stated that if Russia cuts off gas or an embargo is in place, we will burn more coal and produce higher emissions in the short term. “But, we will also massively invest in renewables and heat pump, and we’ll get through this transition faster than we originally thought.”
The EU has proposed a dual strategy to reduce its dependence upon Putin’s gas. Green investments are encouraged, while Russian gas is swapped for fuels from foreign countries. The bloc plans to ship 50 billion cubic meters of LNG each year from countries like Qatar, Egypt and the US which extracts two-thirds of its gas through fracking, a more environmentally destructive form of production. The EU wants to add 10 billion cubic meters to its pipelines to countries like Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan.
Gas is not like oil, which can be shipped cheaply around the globe in its natural state. Instead, it must be transported via pipelines, or cooled to extremely low temperatures so that it can be transported in liquid form on tankers.
Germany’s plan to build new terminals to receive LNG shipments on its northern coast by 2026 risks locking in a dependence upon fuels it will have no choice but to abandon. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that the terminals would be used later to receive hydrogen shipments. This fuel can be made cleanly from electricity from renewable sources, but experts are skeptical.
The infrastructure required to transport LNG can be expensive and take many years to construct.
Gas demand is declining
More than one third of the EU’s planned gas savings this fiscal year comes from policies to reduce fossil fuel consumption. This includes building more solar panels and turbines, making buildings more efficient and installing heat pump technology. These policies should account for at least twice the amount by the end the decade.
However, these numbers are not meaningful unless there is real change on the ground. Jan Rosenow is the European director of Regulatory Assistance Project. This organization works to decarbonize the power industry. He suggested that concrete actions include a revamp of the permitting process for renewable energy, a shift from gas boilers and heat pumps to receive subsidies, and a public education campaign to help save energy at home.
In the 1970s, governments encouraged people to save energy during an oil crisis.
European leaders have so far largely avoided discussing the last one. Noah Gordon, a climate expert at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an independent think tank, said that “I understand how they don’t.” “Asking people for a reduction in their consumption is bad politics, even in rich and green Europe.”
The thermostat in the average EU home is set to more than 22 degrees Celsius (71 degrees Fahrenheit) and turning it down 1 C would reduce demand for gas by 7%, according to the International Energy Agency. It is possible to save as much gas by turning it down a few degrees and wearing extra slippers and jumpers.
A few politicians have spoken in favor of personal improvements.
Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy- and climate minister, said that “if you want to hurt Putin a bit then save energy.” Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission) echoed the sentiment to ZDF: “We all can contribute to becoming independent form Russian gas, let’s not forget fossil fuels, through saving energy. Josep Borrell, EU’s top diplomat for foreign policy, spoke out in a speech before the European Parliament about the need to adjust temperatures. He said that “European citizens should turn the heat down at their homes.”
All of the experts interviewed for this article emphasized the importance of individual actions as part structural shifts in how the continent heats and generates electricity.
Pastukhova from E3G stated that the new plans to insulate buildings, increase renewable energy investment, and install heat pumps should have been implemented “much, much sooner.” “And this is the lesson that the EU must learn the hard way.”
Edited By: Tamsin W. Walker
