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Researchers also found that wind speeds in these storms could go up by as much 20%. There has also been a dramatic increase in the frequency category 4 and 5 storms in some regions — by more than 2000%.
“Our results also reaffirm the fact that regions currently at (very low) risk could be impacted by the upcoming tropical cyclones under Climate Change,” Nadia Bloemendaal from the University of Amsterdam, the lead author of this study, told CNN in an e-mail. Bloemendaal is a climate scientist at The University of Amsterdam. “We were shocked at the high number of developing countries that are at risk for climate change in the future.
To generate 10,000 years of past climate conditions and future conditions, the researchers used STORM, a statistical forecast system. Bloemendaal pointed out that the researchers then used high resolution wind speed maps to examine future changes on a small scale. “This is so important for an assessment perspective,” Bloemendaal stated.
Scientists found that the most likely areas to see an increase in high intensity storms are those around Hong Kong and parts the South Pacific.
Tokyo, the world’s largest metropolitan area with 38 million inhabitants, currently has a 4.6% chance each year of being impacted. Scientists predict that this probability will increase to 13.9% in future.
Another notable jump was for Hawaii. Honolulu is currently at 4% risk of being struck by a hurricane. As the study suggests, this number will increase to 8.6% in future years.
According to the researchers, their findings are likely due the rise in sea surface temperatures around the globe. The burning of fossil fuels has caused ocean temperatures to rise dramatically in the last few decades. Bloemendaal stated, “The warmer water will create more fuel to the storms to intensify.”
The Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico were the only areas where scientists didn’t expect intense tropical cyclones to double in the future. Bloemendaal stated that the frequency and intensity of intense storms remained “essentially unchanged” in their study. This was because the future will be more challenging for tropical storms due to changes in the atmosphere.
Bloemendaal stated that global climate models project greater atmospheric stability in the region, given future-climate conditions. “Due to this increased atmospheric stability, the overall frequency of the Gulf of Mexico’s tropical cyclones is projected to decrease as the climate conditions have become less favorable for their development.”
However, she noted that when tropical cyclones form in these areas, the warmer waters will provide more fuel for the storm to intensify to a Category 3 or higher.
Although scientists expect to see fewer hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or Bay of Bengal than usual, they will still be powerful and costly.
Costs rising
Typhoons and hurricanes are more destructive than any other natural disaster. The study shows that the United States has suffered $480 billion in losses from tropical storms and hurricanes in the past decade.
Bloemendaal stated this to be one reason it’s more crucial than ever to predict where the strongest storms are going to occur in the future.
Bloemendaal released a statement saying that the results could help pinpoint the areas most at risk from a tropical cyclone. “Local governments can then take actions to reduce the risk within their region, so that fatalities and damage can be reduced.”
Globally, there are between 80 and 100 tropical storms each year. However, reliable records of these storms — which were once only visible from ships or when they made their landfall — can only be found back to the 1960s or so as long as scientists have weather satellites. This has made long-term changes in the climate crisis difficult to predict.
Scientists say this new research will provide a better picture of the future for nature’s most destructive phenomenon.
