Mike Buckley argues that the West has an extremely powerful weapon against Russia that it has so far refused use.
The West is not doing enough to stop the war in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zilensky, the President of Ukraine, holds this view.
“Ukraine needs weapons,” he said in a Recent video messages. “We need heavy artillery, armoured vehicles, air defence systems and combat aircraft. Anything to repel Russian forces and stop their war crimes… Western nations have everything to make it happen. The final victory over the tyranny and the number of people saved depends on them.”
The US has sent $1.7 billion in lethal aid since the start of the Russian invasion, though those weapons have largely consisted of anti-aircraft and anti-armour munitions, drones, rocket systems and ammunition. In a possible shift to heavier weapons, Joe Biden’s administration It is expected that a package worth $750 million will be announced that will include Howitzer artillery.
Until recently, President Biden was hesitant to help Ukraine obtain larger weapons systems, fearful that such moves could draw Russia’s ire and escalate the conflict. After Poland offered to transfer its MiG-29 fighter plane fleet to Ukraine last month, Washington resisted the idea. It was stated that it was not “tenable”.
With the Kremlin now expected to heavily attack Donbas, Ukraine’s messaging appears to have led to Western nations shifting their stance.
“There has been a sense of urgency,” a senior US defence official Reporters. “Clearly we understand as the Russians begin to refocus their efforts that time is of the essence.”
The devastation witnessed in Bucha and Mariupol has also focused Western minds. This is due to the failure of President Vladimir Putin, who has not been willing to negotiate. There is no sign that Russia will withdraw or that negotiations are underway to end the war.
If the West wants to defend Ukraine and stop Russian aggression, it must send more arms. However, more arms will not bring about a quick end to the conflict. Putin is committed to the conflict and will not be forced to withdraw.
The West has a powerful weapon that it refuses to use.
The West must turn off the taps
Western nations may rightly claim that the sanctions regime against the Russian state and its oligarchs is unprecedented – but it is also fatally flawed.
Since the start of the war, the EU has spent approximately €2 trillion. more than €35 billion on Russian oil and gas – money that goes directly to support the Russian state and its economy.
It is Not just Europe. For the next month, cargoes of Russian Sokol crude oil from Asia have been sold out. Many Chinese companies used local currency in March to buy Russian coal. Since the invasion, gas flows from Russia to Europe have increased, if not more.
These sales are not subject to sanctions. Bloomberg Russia is expected to cooperate will earn about $320 billion from energy exports this year – up by more than a third from 2021. The rouble has already reverted to its pre-war value against the dollar, a sign that markets are expecting the Russian economy will do well.
No one argues that ending imports of Russian fossil fuels – in particular gas – would be easy for Europe. Many European countries are aware of this. buy huge quantitiesRussian oil-and-gas; Germany is an example. A third of the population is affected.Its gas was taken from the country. Without this gas lights would go off in Germany, Italy and many other EU nations. Factories would close down and jobs would be lost.
It is not always easy but it is necessary. As things stand, the EU and other Western nations are both opposing Putin’s aggression and funding it. This cannot last.
Current plans are to shift gas supply to imported national gas From the USThey are too slow. It would take months to build the infrastructure in the USA to liquefy and export the gas, and for Europe to receive it. The war would continue in the meantime.
In the decade of scientists arguing, such plans are also absurd. ThatTo stop climate change from becoming a reality, global emissions must be halved. There is no longer the luxury of building new fossil fuel infrastructure – all energy investment must be It was channelled intoLow carbon energy production
“Financial and other sanctions have weakened the Russian economy [but] fall short of crippling the economy as long as they do not interrupt the flow of revenue from exports,” Patrick HonohanThe observation was made by a senior fellow at Washington’s Peterson Institute and a former policy-maker for the European Central Bank.
President Zelensky has criticized the current Western sanctions as insufficient. “It can hardly be called commensurate with the evil that the world saw in Bucha,” He said.
It is better to end the war sooner than later
Some Russian sales are Beyond our controlUS, NATO, or EU. China is set to receive the first commodity shipment from Moscow, which will be paid in yuan. This is because several Russian banks have been cut off from the international banking system. Russian crude oil, which would normally be exported to the US or Europe, is headed for Asia, where buyers are taking advantage of steep discounts.
They have much to control, especially considering the inability to build infrastructure that would allow Vladimir Putin to export gas from the east to Europe if Europe were to stop its imports.
EU foreign ministers are likely discussing the possibility of imposing an Oil Embargo on Russia. Josep Borrell, the bloc’s foreign policy chief. Borrell It was said that a ban on oil is not in the latest sanctions package, though he expects ministers will tackle it “and sooner or later – I hope sooner – it will happen”.
Russia’s natural gas supplies continue to flow freely as Europe faces an energy cost crunch that’s prompting governments to think twice before taking action that could see prices rise further.
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Even countries that are heavily dependent on Russian gas are starting to recognize the necessity of ending imports regardless of the cost. Italy is the largest buyer of Russian gas. Has saidIt would support a ban, if the bloc united behind the idea. This is something Germany has been opposed to.
The best outcome for Ukraine, to enhance the likelihood of ending the war in weeks rather than months or years – and for hopes of preventing climate chaos – is a collective European shift to low carbon energy, ideally with financial and technical assistance from the US.
This program would be justified by the climate crisis and is exactly what was reported by the International Panel on Climate Change. Calls for. It is further justified due to the war in Ukraine.
The West has already done so much to help Ukraine. Billions have been spent on aid and on weapons. Sanctions were imposed to harm both the Western and Russian economies. European nations are subject to the notable exceptionThe UK has opened its borders to refugees and promised to provide housing, education, and access to work for at most three years.
It is not enough, however, President Zelensky acknowledges. For the alliance to be effective, more arms must be combined with a ban on Russian fuel imports. To do otherwise would leave the West, particularly the EU, trying to end the war while continuing its funding.
Ukraine’s people deserve better. The climate crisis requires a fast shift away from fossil fuels. It is now that Western leaders must deliver.
Mike Buckley is a freelance journalist who is also the director of Campaign Central.
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