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The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1st, and the Gulf of Mexico is already in full swing It is warmer than the average. Worse, a current of warm, tropical water is flowing unusually deep into the Gulf at this time. It has the potential to transform tropical storms into massive hurricanes.
It’s called the Loop Current, and it’s the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks.
When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what’s forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks along the Northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida.
If you look at Temperature mapsThe Loop Current can be seen in the Gulf of Mexico. It curves up through the Yucatan channel between Cuba and Mexico, into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it swings south through the Florida Strait as the Florida Current. This is where it becomes the main contributor of the Gulf Stream.
Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY ND
When a tropical storm passes over the Loop Current or one of its giant eddies – large rotating pools of warm water that spin off from the current – the storm can explode in strength as it draws energy from the warm water.
The Loop Current is remarkably similar to 2005, when Hurricane Katrina crossed it before destroying New Orleans. There are many things to be thankful for. There were 27 named storms in that yearSeven of these storms became major hurricanes. WilmaAnd RitaAlso crossed the Loop Current in that year, becoming two of the Most intenseAtlantic hurricanes are the most severe on record
Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY ND
For more than 30 year, I have been watching the ocean heat content. As a marine scientist. The conditions I’m seeing in the Gulf in May 2022 are cause for concern. One prominent forecast predicts 19 tropical storms – 32% more than average – and nine hurricanes. Some of those storms may be supercharged by The Loop Current.
Why the Loop Current concerns forecasters
Warm ocean water doesn’t necessarily mean more tropical storms. But, when tropical storms reach water temperatures around 78 F (26 C), or higher, they can grow into hurricanes.
Hurricanes Make the most of your strengthFrom the top 100 feet (30m) of the ocean. These waters mix in the upper ocean, which allows warm spots to cool down quickly. But the Loop Current’s subtropical water is deeper and warmer, and also saltier, than Gulf common water. These effects reduce ocean mixing and sea-surface cooling and allow the warm current and its condensers to retain heat at great depths.
Satellite data from the Loop Current showed water temperatures of 78 F (or warmer) down to approximately 330 feet (100 metres) in mid-May 2022. That heat could drop to about 500 feet (about150 meters) in the summer.
The Hurricane Ida was fueled by an eddy2021 Over 86 F(30 C) at the surface, and heat down to approximately 590 feet (180 m). This deep reservoir of heat enabled the storm to explode almost instantly into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with favorable atmospheric conditions.
Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY ND
Warm ocean water can form plumes of warm, moist air that rise high above the ground, creating hurricane fuel. Think about what happens when you boil large quantities of spaghetti on the stove. The steam rises as the water heats up. The pressure drops as more moisture and heat rises in a hurricane. The horizontal pressure difference between the storm’s center and its periphery causes wind to pick up, making the hurricane more dangerous.
Since the Loop Current and its eddies have so much heat, they don’t significantly cool, and the pressure will continue to fall. 2005 Hurricane Wilma was the. Lowest central pressureOn the Atlantic, and RitaAnd Katrina weren’t far behind.
La Niña, wind shear and other drivers of a busy season
Forecasters have other clues as to how the hurricane season might unfold. One is La Niña, the climate opposite of El Niño.
During La NiñaStronger trade winds in the Pacific Ocean bring cooler water to the surface, which helps push the jet stream further north. This tends exacerbate drought in southern U.S.A and also weakens it. Wind shear there. Wind shear is the change in wind speeds and winds directions with height. Too much wind shear can cause tropical storms to become disorganized. But less wind shear, courtesy of La Niña, and more moisture in the atmosphere can mean more hurricanes.
La Niña has been unusually strong in spring 2022, though it’s possible that it It could be that the currency will fall in the futureIn the year, there will be more wind shear towards the end of the season. The upper atmosphere is not doing much to stop a hurricane intensifying.
It’s too soon to tell what will happen with the steering winds that guide tropical storms and affect where they go. Even before that, the conditions over West Africa will be crucial in determining whether or not tropical storms will form in the Atlantic. Dust from the SaharaLow humidity and wind speed can both decrease the chance of storms forming.
Climate change plays a key role
As global temperatures rise, the ocean’s temperature This is increasing. A lot of the heat trapped in greenhouse gases is released by human activities. Storing in the oceansIt can also provide additional fuel for hurricanes.
Studies suggest that the Atlantic will see more storms. Hurricane force winds can intensify to major hurricanes as those temperatures rise, though there won’t necessarily be more storms overall. A study examined the 2020 hurricane season – which had a record 30 named storms, 12 of them hitting the U.S. – and found the storms More rain was producedThey would have been more successful in a world that didn’t suffer from the effects of climate change.
Another trend we have been noticing is that the Loop Current’s warm eddies have more heat than we saw 10 to 15 years ago. Whether that’s related to global warming isn’t clear yet, but the impact of a warming trend could be devastating.
