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Even if we manage to stop the planet warming beyond 1.5℃ this century, we will still see profound impacts to billions of people on every continent and in every sector, and the window to adapt is narrowing quickly. These are some of the alarming findings from The latest reportThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC)
At 1.5℃ warming above pre-industrial levels, the new report projects that, for example, children under 12 will experience a fourfold increase in natural disasters in their lifetime, and up to 14% of all species assessed will likely face a very high risk of extinction. This is our worst-case scenario.
These impacts won’t be evenly distributed. The hardest hit countries will be those in Africa, Asia, and the low-lying, island nations. These countries are the most unable to adapt.
We are the three vice-chairs for the IPCC and helped to guide the hundreds of scientists who contributed to this report. This report is the second in a trio of three. It provides the most complete summary of what we know so far about climate change and how we can adapt.
The previous report, published last year, confirmed Earth has already warmed by 1.09℃ since pre-industrial times as a result of human activity.
Adaptation can be used to help humans manage the increasing risks. But adaptation alone will not be enough, it must be paired with a drastic and urgent reduction in global greenhouse emissions if we’re to avert the extraordinary crises that unmitigated planetary heating would bring.
Cascading climate crises
The IPCC is the world’s leading authority on climate change, as it is the highest climate science body of both the United Nations and World Meteorological Organization.
Our new report shows that climate impacts are already affecting billions of people’s lives, economies, and the environment. It covers the entire globe, from the Equator to the poles, the tops and bottoms of the mountains to the ocean floor.
Global warming of 1.09℃ has already caused widespread impacts globally. In the past several years, we’ve seen enormous wildfires sweep across Australia, Chile, United States Greece. We’ve seen global, back-to-back mass Coral bleaching events. And we’ve seen unprecedented heatwaves and cold events such as in Canada, British ColumbiaIn Texas, US.
Even if we can reduce global emissions and meet the targets, Paris Agreement target of only temporarily exceeding 1.5℃ this century, this could still have severe and potentially irreversible impacts, although less so than for higher temperature rises.
This includes the extinction of species, especially on low-lying islands or mountainous areas. Greenland, West Antarctica, and now even further breakdown of ice sheets will occur. East Antarctica, raising global sea levels About half a metreor more by 2100
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Every little increase in temperature will cause escalating damages and losses across many systems. The report showed that:
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If the world continues to emit high levels of greenhouse gases, more frequent and severe natural disasters will cause over 250,000 extra deaths each year.
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up to 3 billion people are projected to experience chronic water scarcity due to droughts at 2℃ warming, and up to 4 billion at 4℃ warming, mostly across the subtropics to mid-latitudes
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projected flood damages may be up to two times higher at 2℃ warming and up to 3.9 times higher at 3℃, when compared with damages at 1.5℃
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up to 18% of all those species assessed on land will be at high risk of extinction if the world warms 2℃ by 2100. If the world warms up to 4℃, roughly every second plant or animal species assessed will be threatened
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even warming below 1.6℃ will see 8% of today’s farmland become climatically unsuitable for current activities by 2100.
Importantly, the interplay of these diverse impacts can potentially be Cascade into greater risk.
Take Australia’s 2019-20 bushfiresThis is an example. Climate change has exacerbated droughts and heatwaves, which created catastrophic fire conditions that caused over 18 million hectares of destruction.
The drought also reduced water availability for firefighting; the heat exhausted the firefighters in their protective clothing; and the fires generated their own fire weather, spreading the fire faster while also disrupting communications, power networks, and fuel and banking systems – all of which severely hampered the disaster response.
The fires also released large amounts of carbon dioxide into our atmosphere, which contributes to future fire risk and warming.
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Who will be most affected?
One of the key messages from the report is how climate changes increase inequalities across the globe. Climate change’s existing impacts have already had a significant impact on the poor and the disadvantaged.
For example, food production has been reduced in areas where poverty is already high. This trend is likely to worsen, with the significant risk of large-scale nutrition and food insecurity.
Across Africa, for example, the report found climate change has already reduced agricultural productivity growth by 34% since 1961 – more than any other region on the planet. Further warming will result in shorter growing seasons and a decrease in water availability. In particular, warming above 2℃ will result in significant yield reductions for staple crops across most of the continent.
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A reduction in fish harvests could make up to 70 million Africans vulnerable to iron deficiencies by 2050. Vitamin A deficiencies can affect up to 188million people, while vitamin B12 and omega-3 deficiencies can affect up to 285million.
Climate change poses a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of small island countries, such as those in the Caribbean and Pacific. For example, the report found warming above 1.5℃ will see up to 90% of tropical coral reefs severely damaged. This jumps to 99% of coral reefs for warming over 2℃. Many people rely on coral reef ecosystems to support their livelihoods. This will increase climate-related displacement.
To add salt to the wounds, the role of developing nations, communities, and people in emitting greenhouse gases that drive the temperature up is negligible. Per capita emissions are often only a tenth as high in developed countries.
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Adapting isn’t enough
We need to take immediate, accelerated actions to adapt to climate change in order to avoid mounting losses.
There are many adaptation options available for every region and sector. These could include removing floodplain houses and other infrastructure to slow river flows, increase water retention, and improving building standards so that our homes can withstand warmer climates.
These options will likely become less effective as global warming increases. As climate change progresses, so will our adaptability.
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Hot temperatures and drought conditions will likely increase in many subtropical or mid-latitude areas like Mexico, Chile, and the Mediterranean. High-value crops can adapt by using irrigation.
However, the likely decrease in water availability across sectors and the higher demand for it will limit irrigation options and reduce water allocations. What’s more, the efficiency of water use will reduce under hotter, dryer conditions with lower relative humidity of the air. This means for a given amount of water, there’ll be less benefit to crop growth or even for other sectors, such as for cooling power stations.
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Getting the right support is key to faster adaptation. We need strong political commitment and follow through, institutions that can provide new adaptation options and have access to sufficient financial resources.
Indeed, developed nations have agreed to mobiliseUS$100 million per year is used to finance adaptation and mitigation projects in developing countries. But while climate finance is increasing overall, it’s not enough to enable adaptation to keep pace with climate change. Only a tiny fraction (an estimated 4-8%) is targeted at enhancing climate adaptation – most is aimed at emissions reduction.
Even a well-designed and implemented global adaptation program won’t fully address the increased risks from climate change, and so losses and damages will likely mount. Action we take to adapt to climate change will require parallel reductions in greenhouse gas emissions – adaptation cannot do it all.
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Adaptation actions should simultaneously reduce net emission and reduce climate risk, wherever possible. Clearly, adaptations that increase emissions – such as turning on our air-conditioners if they use fossil-fuel-generated electricity – are self-defeating.
Emission-reduction activities will also need to adapt to changing climate.
For example, higher temperatures and lower rainfall projected for southern Australia will lower the amount of carbon forests can soak up, because the forests’ growth rate will reduce and more fires will lead to greater losses. A mix of plant species that are more suited to warmer climates could offset some of these effects.
It’s clear reducing global emissions alongside effective adaptation will put us on a trajectory of lower costs and damages. But at a global level, we’re doing neither of these things to the necessary extent. We’re at risk of missing a brief and rapidly closing window to secure an equitable and sustainable future.
