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The 2021 year made a lasting impression in the history of weather. Not only did it feature the most extreme heat wave in history – the late June heat wave over western North America that smashed all-time records by unprecedented margins – it also had four weather mega-disasters costing over $20 billion each, tied with 2017 for the most such disasters on record.
Eight extreme weather events were included in the top ten. There were also two climate change discoveries that could be a sign of serious future challenges. Below is a list highlighting the top 10 climate and weather events of 2021, according to their impacts on humans and/or the meteorological significance.
1. The world’s most extreme heat wave
Never before in the history of world meteorological observation has so many all time heat records fallen by this large margin as in the recent heat wave that hit western North America in June 2021. The year’s second-most deadly weather disaster was the intense heat wave, which resulted in 1,037 deaths. 808 were in western Canada, and 229 were in the northwestern U.S. According to Aon, an insurance broker, the only more deadly weather disaster in 2021 was the Indian summer monsoon flooding that claimed 1,292 deaths.
Here are two examples of extreme heat waves:
• Canada broke its all-time national temperature record on three consecutive days at Lytton, British Columbia, which topped out at a stunning 49.6°C (121°F) on June 29 – a day before the town burned down in a ferocious wildfire fed by the extreme heat. The old Canadian heat record was 8°F cooler, 45.0°C (113°F) on July 5, 1937.
• Quillayute, Washington, broke its all-time high by a truly astonishing 11°F, after hitting 110°F on June 29 (old record: 99°F on August 9, 1981). Quillayute, located just three miles from Olympic Peninsula’s lush Hoh Rain Forest, receives an average of 100 ins of precipitation annually.
“This was the most anomalous regional extreme heat event to occur anywhere on Earth since temperature records began. Nothing can compare,” said weather historian Christopher Burt, author of the book Extreme WeatherIn an email. Pointing to Lytton, Canada, he added, “There has never been a national heat record in a country with an extensive period of record and a multitude of observation sites that was beaten by 7°F to 8°F.” International weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (@extremetemps) agreed. “What we are seeing now is totally unprecedented worldwide,” said Herrera, who Tweet on June 30, “It’s an endless waterfall of records being smashed.”
According to Herrera, more all-time heat records were broken by at least five degrees Celsius (9°F) during the heatwave than in the previous 85-plus years of world weather recordkeeping, going back to July 1936, when the hottest summer in U.S. history brought the previous most extreme heatwave in world history. It’s worth noting that the record North American heat of the 1930s, including 1936, was largely connected to the Dust Bowl, in which the effects of a multiyear drought were Amplified by over-plowed, denuded soil across the Great Plains – an example of human-induced climate change itself, albeit temporary.
A Rapid-response Study from the World Weather Attribution program found that the daily high temperatures observed in a study area encompassing much of western Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during June 2021 would have been “virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.” The study estimated it was roughly a 1-in-1000-year event in today’s climate, but in a world with 2 degrees Celsius of global warming (0.8 degree Celsius warmer than today, which, at current emission levels, would be reached as early as the 2040s), an event like this could occur roughly every five to 10 years.
2. Hurricane Ida is the fifth-most costly weather event in world history (65 billion)
Hurricane Ida struck Port Fourchon in Louisiana on August 29th as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Ida moved eastward along the U.S. East Coast, unleashing a devastating flood event across much of the Northeast and midAtlantic. Aon estimated Ida’s damages at $65 billion, making it the fifth-most expensive weather disaster in world history. NOAA’s estimate was $75 billion.
3. European summer floods: The most expensive weather disaster in European history ($43 Billion)
Europe’s deadliest flood since 1985 struck western Germany and eastern Belgium July 12-18, when a stalled low-pressure system dumped torrential rains that killed 240 people and caused $43 billion in damage, according to Aon (note that EM-DAT had lower damages: $22 billion). The flood is the most costly weather disaster in European History.
A Rapid-response Study from the World Weather Attribution program found that the likelihood of such an extreme one-day rainfall event has increased by a factor between 1.2 and 9 because of human-caused global warming.
4. Flooding in China: The third-most costly weather event in Asian history (about $30 billion)
Zhengzhou, China was hit by an unprecedented rainfall event. It recorded an incredible 644.6 mm (25.38 in) of rain in 24hrs. This is literally more than a year’s worth of rain: Its Average annual precipitation (1981-2010 climatology) is only 640.9 mm (25.23 inches).
Flooding in China during the June-through-September rainy season killed 347 people, damaged or destroyed 1.4 million homes and businesses, and did $30 billion in damage, according to Aon and EM-DAT. EM-DAT ranks this total as the third-most costly non-U.S. weather catastrophe since 1990 (adjusted to inflation), after 1998 flooding in China ($48 Billion) and 2011 flooding of Thailand ($47 Billion).
In a September 2020 study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, “Each 0.5°C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion,” researchers found that annual average flood losses in China during the period 1984-2018 were $19.2 billion (2015 dollars), which was 0.5% of China’s GDP. The annual flood losses rose to $25.3 billion each year between 2006 and 2018. According to the study, each additional 0.5 degree Celsius of global heating will increase flood losses in China by $60 billion annually.
5. February cold wave in central U.S. – Second-costliest winter weather catastrophe in world history ($23 Billion)
A devastating winter weather event in the middle of the United States brought heavy snow, freezing rain and severe cold to Texas, Texas, and surrounding states, February 12-20. 246 people were killed and $23 billion was damaged. One result: the most expensive winter weather disaster in U.S. history (previous record: $10.1 billion in 2021 dollars from the 1993 “Storm of the Century” in the eastern U.S.). Globally, the worst winter weather event was $26 billion in 2008 in China.
Extreme cold has become less common as a result of global warming, so it’s reasonable to expect that disasters of this nature are growing less likely. As DocumentedGuy Walton, a meteorologist, stated that record high maximum temperatures outpaced record-low minimum temperatures by nearly three to 1. In the U.S., this ratio was almost three to 1.
Judah Cohen, climate scientist, led the a 2021 studyThe 2021 Texas freeze was caused by a stratospheric disturbance of the polar vortex. It stretched like a rubber band, or taffy. These stretched polar vortex phenomena have nearly doubled in number since 1980, for the months of October and February. The increase has been attributed to reduced Arctic sea ice and increased snowfall across Siberia during the fall months – largely from human-caused climate change.
6. July 2021: Earth’s warmest month in recorded history
July 2021 was Earth’s hottest July since global record-keeping began in 1880, 0.93 degrees Celsius (1.67°F) above the 20th-century average, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported. Since July is also the hottest month of the seasonal cycle, that meant that July 2021 was “more likely than not the warmest month on record for the globe since 1880,” NOAA said. July 2021 was just 0.01 degree Celsius hotter than July of 2016, 2019, and 2020, so these months can be considered to be in a statistical tie for Earth’s hottest month on record.
The record July warmth was particularly remarkable since there was a moderate La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that ended in May 2021. La Niña events typically cause global cooling of about 0.1 degree Celsius; the peak cooling occurs five months after the La Niña peak, on average. July 2021 temperatures would have been even warmer had a La Niña event not occurred earlier in the year.
During the month, Death Valley National Park’s Furnace Creek Visitor Center in California (U.S.) hit an astonishing 130.0 degrees Fahrenheit (54.4°C) on July 9, beating the previous all-time world record for hottest reliably measured temperature of 129.9 degrees Fahrenheit (54.4°C), set at the same location on August 16, 2020. As explained in Our post on the recordThe official world record is 134 degrees Fahrenheit at Furnace Creek in 1913. However, this record has been strongly disputed and deemed invalid.
7. Warning signs: A key Atlantic Ocean current system is in danger of collapse
The climate has been unusually stable over the past few thousand year, which has helped to bring about the rise and development of modern civilization. However, ice core studies reveal that the “normal” climate for Earth is one of frequent extreme jumps – like a light switch flicking on and off. Global warming is not expected to lead to a gradual and steady rise in temperature that humans can adapt to. Global warming could cause the climate system to shift beyond a threshold that would allow for a sudden and irreversible change in climate.
If the North Atlantic is flooded with enough freshwater to slow down or even stop the increase in precipitation and glacial melting water from global warming, this would be most likely to occur. Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to the North Atlantic and sends cold water to the south along the ocean floor. The AMOC portion that runs along the U.S. East Coast of the United States is formed by the powerful Gulf Stream current. The Gulf Stream would stop pumping warm, tropical water to North Atlantic if the AMOC was shut down. Average temperatures would cool in Europe and North America by three degrees Celsius (5°F) or more in just a few years – not enough to trigger a full-fledged ice age, but enough cooling to bring snows in June and killing frosts in July and August to New England and northern Europe, such as occurred in the famed 1816 “year without a summer”. Additionally, changes in the jet stream pattern could lead to severe droughts and devastating floods in areas that are not used to them. This would greatly strain global food supplies and water supplies.
A StudyPublished August 2021, eight independent measures of AMOC were examined and found early warning signs that the ocean system is at risk. “The AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition,” the authors wrote.
8. The wild 2021 Atlantic hurricane season
2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced 21 named storms (third highest ever), seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. There was also an accumulated cyclone energie (ACE) of 145. These numbers are comparable with the 1991-2020 averages for an entire season of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 123. As Brian McNoldy –, Senior Research Associate at University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, 2021 marked the sixth consecutive year with an ACE index above 129: “this has never happened before, not during the satellite era, not since records began in 1851. This sustained level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic is unprecedented even for four years, let alone six!”
Eight named storms made landfall across the contiguous U.S.A in 2021. This was the third highest number of landfalls in recorded history, after 2020 (11) and 1916 (9). The contiguous U.S. had 19 landfalls between 2020-2021, six times more than the average for a two year period and beating the previous two year landfall record of 15. The U.S. experienced a total of 19 landfalls in the contiguous U.S. from 1950 to 2020. Average just three landfalling tropical storms (with one a hurricane) per year.
9. Two unprecedented December tornadoes and severe storm outbreaks in the United States of America
Two unprecedented severe weather outbreaks resulted from a week of record heat in the U.S. Midwest mid-December. The first outbreak, on December 10, was the nation’s deadliest and most damaging on record for any December, with at least 90 fatalities and a record 69 confirmed tornadoes, chiefly across western and central Kentucky. Preliminary insured damages estimatesThe economic damages are estimated to be between $3-$5 billion and $5 billion.
Then, on December 15, the record set just five days previously was smashed, as a massive cyclone whipped across the central U.S., spawning EF2 tornadoes as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin – an outbreak Unprecedented for December in its northward extent and in the total number of twisters confirmed (a total of 100, one of the largest one-day outbreaks on record for any time of year).
10. Bad news from Antarctica’s key glacier
Scientists from the International Thwaites Glacier Partnership in December announced their discovery of cracks and fissures in the floating ice shelf buttressing West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier. They predicted that the Thwaites Glacier could be accelerated to melting in five years.
In a worst-case scenario, fracturing of the ice shelf would allow part of Thwaites Glacier to triple in speed, increasing the glacier’s contribution to global sea level rise to 5% in the short term. The Thwaites Glacier could be dissolved quickly if the Thwaites Ice Shelf is lost. This could result in the collapse of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It would also cause an increase in global sea level of approximately 10 feet. However, it is uncertain how quickly this might happen.
Bob Henson contributed to the above post.
Editor’s note: This post was updated on Jan. 11 to include a newer damage assessment from NOAA for Hurricane Ida ($75 billion instead of $65 billion), and to update Figure 2 with numbers from EM-DAT instead of Aon.
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