[ad_1]
Published on:
Paris (AFP) – Monday’s gathering of nearly 200 nations will be devoted to a question that will outlive Covid-19 or Russia’s invasion in Ukraine: How can a world dependent upon fossil fuels prevent carbon pollution causing Earth to become unlivable?
April 4th will see a partial response. This is after virtual negotiations and closed-door meetings approved a nearly 3000-page report that details options for reducing greenhouse gases and removing them from the atmosphere.
Alden Meyer, a senior analyst with E3G, stated that while the impacts are severe and costly, there is still time to close the window on the worst effects and act now.
“This report will give us the answers we need to get there if we’re serious.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in August 2021, laid out the science: the pace and intensity of global warming, sea level rise, and shifts in frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones.
This was part 1 of a 3-part assessment. This is the sixth such assessment since 1990.
It was projected that Earth’s surface temperatures would rise 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than preindustrial levels, possibly within a decade.
Most countries around the world have adopted a 1.5C limit on global warming as a target. This is the aspirational goal of 2015 Paris climate accord.
It’s easy to see why: a mere 1.1C of global warming has resulted in a crescendo for extreme weather around the globe.
However, the recent renewal of national carbon-cutting pledges still puts us on a terrible path towards 2.7C of global warming by 2100.
‘Overshooting’ 1.5C
Part two of the IPCC Report — described by UN chief Antonio Guterres, as an “atlas for human suffering”, — details past and potential climate impacts and our ability to adapt.
It concluded that delaying climate action would severely decrease the chances of a “livable tomorrow”.
Part three focuses on how to keep the planet-warming gases from the atmosphere. It also includes chapters that focus on key sectors where rapid and profound change is required: energy, transport industry, agriculture, and industry.
“We are talking here about the large-scale transformation all the major systems,” Celine Guivarch, climate economist and coauthor, told AFP.
The main goal is to eliminate fossil fuels from the global economy and move to low- or no-carbon energy sources, such as solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro.
This is because renewable energy is now more affordable than fossil fuels in many markets.
The IPCC also provides suggestions on how to reduce the demand for oil, coal, and gas.
But humanity has waited so much to take action. Switching supply and reducing the demand are not enough. We must also remove CO2 from our atmosphere.
The theory is that carbon dioxide removal, which does not yet exist at scale, will compensate for difficult-to-decarbonise areas like aviation and shipping and extract excess CO2 if temperatures “overshoot” the Paris Agreement targets.
Probability of failing?
“Delivering on the climate promises that we’ve made internationally as well as nationally is far more difficult than we have been willing to accept,” said Kevin Anderson of the University of Manchester, a professor of energy & climate change.
“Right now we are very likely not to succeed. He said that if we fail to try, we will fail.”
The IPCC “solutions” report draws from hundreds upon hundreds of models, which project development pathways that keep Earth within Paris temperature goals.
Taryn Frasen, an analyst with the World Resources Institute, Washington DC, stated that “there are scenarios that show high renewables but low nuclear” and “there are scenarios that show the reverse.”
“This report lays those paths out. It’s now up to our leaders to take this to heart.”
Meyer stated that in addition to feeding into UN political negotiation, which resume in November at COP 27, in Egypt, the IPCC findings are also important “for US and European conversation around the need for transition away from Russian oil or gas.”
This was the dramatic statement made by the head of the IPCC delegation from Ukraine at a closed plenary held in February, just days after Russian troops invaded her nation.
According to multiple sources, Svitlana Krakovska stated that “Human-induced climate changes and the war against Ukraine have the same roots — fossilfuels — and our dependence upon them.”
© 2022 AFP
