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The world has failed to act quickly enough to stop global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is the threshold at which scientists fear things could get especially dangerous.
This feedback system includes the increasing severity of the weather. Storms are becoming more destructive due to the accumulation of large amounts of energy in the atmosphere. Warmer air also holds more water, which makes rains heavier and droughts more severe.
Planting trees – natural carbon extraction engines – is a mainstay of the fight against climate change. However, if the trees are frequently blown by gale-force winds and/or burned by wildfires, their effectiveness will be diminished.
Major storms such as Eunice also cause major damage to vital infrastructure. The rebuilding of this infrastructure will incur a significant carbon emission.
Although the threat posed in increasing numbers by Nature is something that climate scientists can attempt to predict, human factors tend to be less predictable.
If Vladimir Putin invades UkraineThe West has vowed to halt the Nord Stream 2 gas line from Russia to Germany. This has already prompted a search for other supplies and created a new demand to open up more oil-and-gas fields.
Other potential conflicts, especially those involving China, could lead to similar problems for efforts decarbonise global economy and further hinder the ability of nations work together. A country fighting in war will likely not pay much attention its carbon emissions.
The weakness of that pulse means the margins for such ‘errors’ are fine. Should Putin decide to play soldier with real people’s lives, the liberal democracies of the world, while standing together to defend freedom, may also need to shoulder greater responsibility for cutting emissions than they currently expect if the patient is to survive.
