Weather disasters are not just the result of climate change.

As a pioneer in so-called attribution science—establishing a link between extreme weather and climate change—Friederike Otto is adamant that the rising toll of heatwaves and hurricanes cannot be explained by global warming alone.

AFP spoke to Otto at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, before the release of a major UN-related climate report. Climate change impactsThese are the things that humanity can do to adapt to them.

Q. Q.

Talk about natural disastersThe way we do things is not helpful, as it distracts from the agency we have as human beings.

Climate requires that you search hard. DisastersThese are natural. Even without climate change, such disasters can still occur if humans are involved. Extreme weather events. Global warming only makes things worse.

Q. Q.

Last year, there were floods in West Germany that caused many deaths and damaged property.

Yes, climate change increased the intensity of rainfall. Even so, climate change made the rainfall more intense. Global warmingThere would have been a large, heavy rainfall event. It would have hit a densely populated area where rivers flood easily and water has nowhere else to go.

Q. Q.

When we started to do attribution, everyone -– we, the media –- were excited to finally have an answer to the question: what is the role of climate change in these disasters? It was a breakthrough to be capable of predicting that a particular event would be 10 times more likely.

However, ignoring vulnerability means that we are largely ignoring what we can do to adapt to and protect ourselves against climate change.

Q. Q.

The goal is not to find fault or blame but to understand the causes. Next, ask yourself: What are the causes? Who has the authority to make that happen? You can then ask about accountability.

We now know that building mansions along the Malibu cliffs and beaches is probably a stupid idea. It is deliberately putting oneself at risk.

A 1000-year-old city built on the flood plain is different. But we still have to adapt: educate people not to build there anymore, build in a way -– on stilts, for example—that can withstand floods. We also need better flood prediction.

Q. Q.

The most vulnerable members of society are the ones who suffer the most loss and damage. They live in houses that cannot withstand. natural hazardsThey live in floodplains and can’t afford insurance. It’s not just Global North and Global South. Who is still suffering from the effects of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which devastated New Orleans? It’s not just the white and wealthy. It’s the poor and people of color.

Q. Q.

Maladaptation can result from blaming climate for natural disasters. If you view climate disasters as a problem that is only physical, you will likely favor a technical solution such as building a dam. While it may reduce flooding in a small area of a city’s core, it could have devastating consequences for the rest.

Maladaptation is when the adaptation measures you put in place make things worse over time or for most people. Adaptation can also refer to education, governance, etc. But it is difficult to invest in these things and it can take years before you see the results.

Q. Q. Have climate change-related disasters been wrongly blamed?

The drought and famine in Madagascar. Climate change is not a factor in this situation. The population is dependent on rain-fed agriculture. However, the rains are not always reliable.

The poverty rate is very high. Unfortunately, outside disaster assistance has been extremely short-term. There have been many things that have gone horribly wrong for those who are vulnerable. Climate change is not a driver.

Q. Q.

Even without conducting an attribution study, based on everything we know from IPCC reports, it should be obvious that ClimateChange is not the only and not the major driver of the drought that has hit southern Madagascar.

I can see why they do that -– to raise funds and so on. It’s just not helpful for them to say, “Everything is ticketyboo and then it gets big, bad.” Climate ChangeMonster comes and eats all of us.” It’s not true.

© 2022 AFP