A new study has been published in the journal NatureThe social system will determine the difference between a scenario in which the Earth is heated to 1.8 degrees Celsius and one where it is heated to 3.6 degrees Celsius.
Also, public perceptions of Climate ChangeA press release by the University of California Davis stated that the future cost and effectiveness of mitigation and technology as well as how political institutions respond in the face of public pressure are key determinants of how the climate will change over time.
Global warming is a major concern. The target of 1.5 degrees Celsius is the goal set by the International Panel on Climate Change. 2015 Paris Climate AgreementIt was signed by 195 nations in 2015.
This agreement has established a goal to reduce climate change over the next decade. The agreement aims slow down the process by trying to keep the global average temperature rising to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Additionally, the agreement will continue to try to limit the temperature rise to 1.5° above pre-industrial levels.
Is the world doing enough for global warming mitigation? Here are some studies
Global temperatures have risen by approximately 1 degree Celsius since 1950-1900, a result of human activities. Importantly, so far, emissions targets for countries are not in line of limiting Global warmingKeep it below 1.5 degrees.
Another study published by Nature in September 2021 stated that global oil production should decrease by three percent per annum up to 2050 in order for global warming to remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
In August 2021, an independent charitable organization OxfamMany countries are announcing net zero carbon targets, which may be a distraction from the priority of cutting carbon emission.
However, net-zero, also known as carbon-neutrality or carbon-neutrality does not mean that a country would reduce its emissions to zero. Gross-zero would mean that there is no emission at all. This scenario is difficult to grasp. Net-zero refers to a state where a country’s greenhouse gas emissions are compensated through absorption or removal.
Oxfam stated that the world must work together to reduce global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius and prevent irreversible climate change. The goal should be to cut emissions by 45 per cent by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.
What the study shows
The study included simulations of 100,000 possible future policy and emission trajectories. This was done to identify the variables that will have an impact on climate change in the coming century.
These trajectories fell into five groups, with warming varying between 1.5 and 3.6 degrees Celsius above that of the 1880-1910 average in 2100. According to the study, there is strong evidence that the century will see warming of between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius.
These five possibilities indicate that none of them can meet the Paris Climate Agreements target to limit global warming to 1.5° Celsius. The authors do however suggest that there is a significant chance of meeting the 2° Celsius target.
The key factors that will determine how climate change unfolds include the perceptions of people and social groups, technological improvements over time, and the responsiveness and capacity of political institutions. According to the study, these key drivers outweigh individual actions.
As Frances C. Moore, assistant professor at the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy, stated, “Small changes in variables such as the responsiveness of politics or the level of support for climate policy can sometimes trigger a cascade of feedbacks which result in a tipping-point and drastically change the emission trajectory over the century.”
The authors basically say that scientists should not only make projections about climate change but also consider the effects of climate policies.
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