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Weather in Thunder Bay, Ont., will grow warmer, wetter and less predictable over the next 30 years, and that will affect everything from our risk from floods and forest fires to food prices, and mental and physical health, experts say.
But, they say, there is much that can be done at a local level to mitigate those effects and prevent further warming.
On February 28, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its latest report. It details how climate change is affecting humans and the natural environment, and suggests ways to adapt.
It was found that North American cities are already experiencing more severe and frequent “climate-induced hazards” as well as extreme events such severe storms.
Climate data compiled from the Prairie Climate Centre’s Climate Atlas of Canada suggests the average temperature in Thunder Bay in July will warm by approximately two degrees by 2050, while the average temperature in January will warm by approximately 2½ degrees. The city will see an average 40 millimetres of more rainfall each year, and the frost-free period will grow by more then 20 days.
While some may be tempted to believe that warmer days and longer growing seasons are good news, the City of Thunder Bay’s climate adaptation coordinator stated that the problem is unpredictability.
Jacob Porter stated, “Even though the weather is getting warmer in general, that is just because there’s more energy at the atmosphere.”
“This can result in greater water storage so that we get bigger winter storms. However, it can also mean that … an Arctic air mass is pushed over the city in times we are not expecting cold weather.”
Porter stated that severe weather events could cause city infrastructure to collapse, including storm water systems, sewer lines, and storm water systems.
It could lead to flooding and pooling of water throughout the city.
He also said that severe weather events could cause crop damage and lead to food shortages which will further increase food prices.
Other impacts on the city relate to the costs of hosting increasing numbers of people needing to evacuate surrounding communities due to floods and wildfires, he added — and to the increased risk of Lyme disease related to an expanding black-legged tick population.
Porter stated that the City of Thunder Bay can act to reduce the impacts of climate change.
Flood prevention measures
He said that the city has been improving its storm-water management systems as well as building what are known to be low-impact developments.
Porter explained, “They look almost as if they are in a garden but it is in almost an area scooped out so that they can store a large amount water.”
“They are full of deep-rooted, natural plants. They are capable of holding a lot of water in a rain and letting it drain out slower over 24 hours to ensure that it doesn’t overwhelm any pipes downstream. … Underneath, there’s actually a system of pipes. These low-impact developments will not lead to storm water infrastructure.
One example of such a development is what appears to be a garden next to Memorial Avenue near the Beverley Street intersection, Porter said, which features trees, shrubs and a mixture of gravel, stone and mulch.
The city has a climate adaptation strategy that calls for:
- Incorporating climate adaptation into other city policies or procedures.
- Identifying infrastructure at risk from extreme weather and developing ways to protect it.
- We are working to secure funding in climate-related initiatives.
It calls for encouraging the planting and maintenance, as well as the identification of resilient species for planting.
Thunder Bay’s Net Zero strategy calls for the city to plant 100,000 trees within the municipal boundary by 2050.
The strategy aims to reduce Thunder Bay’s contribution in global warming by achieving net zero emission by 2050.
Key elements of it involve retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency, abandoning fossil fuel heating systems, focusing 90 per cent of development near the core of the city to reduce the need for motor vehicles, sending 95 per cent of organic waste to an anaerobic digester, and electrifying the city’s vehicle fleet.
Currently, the energy needs of buildings account for around 28 per cent of Thunder Bay’s emissions, and transportation accounts for another 22 per cent, according to the strategy.
Summer Stevenson, the city’s acting sustainability co-ordinator, said there are new technologies, including bio gas, to decarbonize heavy machinery.
“There’s really cool work being done in the [United]Stevenson said that the States looks at how to use old restaurant oils and leftovers from farming. “There’s a lot of cool work with bio fuels as well that can help decarbonize some of those harder things like snowplows or garbage packers.”
She said that the City of Thunder Bay is currently conducting a study to determine how it could finance a program that would help people retrofit their homes, and install heat pumps that don’t burn fossil fuels.
It also plans to electrify its transit fleet by 2035, according to the strategy — though Stevenson said Edmonton has ended up running diesel-powered heaters on its electric buses in the winter time to help maintain their battery performance in the cold weather.
The city has also identified longer term projects to consider after 2025, she said, which includes exploring the feasibility of car-share services featuring electric vehicles.
Stevenson also recognized the need for green retrofit programs that can be offered to those who are often excluded, such as mobile homeowners who rent land from mobile home parks.
Stevenson explained that the plan is for a period of 30 years. Things will initially seem slow, but then pick up speed.
She said that if you consider our current system as a giant ship on the ocean moving in one direction, it will take a lot pressure to change its course. “So that’s where it is right now. … But as we implement new initiatives, and as we build new networks and connections, things will start to progress much more rapidly.”
