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It is concerning that humanity could still rely on fossil fuels for 70 percent of its energy consumption by 2050. This is a significant drop from 80 percent today.
By 2050, renewable energy will only account for 27% of the total energy consumed. This includes solar, wind, hydropower, and biofuels. According to projectionsU.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Climate scientists warn that greenhouse gases must be cut by at most 45 percent by this decade in order to avoid climate-crisis disaster and must be eliminated entirely by mid-century.
It is hard to imagine these goals being achieved, as the EIA predicts that fossil fuel consumption will rise another 27% between 2020-2050.
The primary means of supplying large amounts of reliable, safe, and clean power over the next three decade is nuclear power. A decarbonizing economy switching to electricity — including a global fleet of electric vehicles — will push world power demand up by an estimated 47 per cent by 2050, the EIA predicts.
The space taken up by nuclear plants is also smaller than that of other energy sources. On a per kilowatt basis large-scale solar plants occupy around 80 times as much space as conventional nuclear plants. Wind farms take up about twice as much land.
But nuclear plants can be built where there’s not much wind or sunlight, and they generate a continuous flow of electricity, unlike the intermittent power generated by wind and solar, which will require as-yet unperfected battery storage to harness their power efficiently.
Yet the EIA expects that nuclear’s share of total energy consumption will drop to just 3.7 per cent by 2050 from an already modest 4.5 per cent today.
Discouraged by today’s slow pace of decarbonization, the U.S., France, Britain, Japan, Poland and Finland are among countries that have recommitted to nuclear power.
China is leading the charge in addressing its air-pollution crisis. It has plans to build approximately 150 new reactors over 15 years, at an estimated cost $440 billion (U.S.).
Canada is funding research into small modular reactors (SMRs), that could power hospitals, factories, and apartment buildings.
Investors now see the potential for profit in nuclear. PitchBook reports that U.S. nuclear energy startups raised $676m (U.S.) during the first nine months in 2021, more than all five years combined.
This might not mark the dawning of a new age in civilian nuclear power. The past generation has seen many attempts to revive nuclear power, but they have failed.
The Chernobyl, Fukushima and Fukushima nuclear meltdowns have engulfed the nuclear power industry. For decades, nuclear power was starved of capital in order to expand and innovate with new technologies like fusion or SMRs.
The high price of turning away from nuclear is well worth it.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations (IHME), the University of Washington, Canada’s heavy reliance on nuclear and hydropower causes an estimated 6.2 premature deaths per 100 000 people each year. The rate for China’s largely coal-fired economy is 106. It is 164.1 in India.
Worldwide, there are more than four million people Every year, someone dies prematurely from air pollution — that is, from CO2, methane and other toxic greenhouse gas emissions — according to the IHME.
Canada has pledged to have a zero carbon electric grid by 2035 and to encourage greater adoption of electric cars by that date. But Ottawa hasn’t explained how it expects to achieve those goals.
The cost of alternative energy sources like solar and wind has dropped significantly in recent times, according to both solar and wind advocates. However, the Paris-based International Energy Agency(IEA) believes that extending existing nuclear reactors’ lives is the best way to meet the huge increase in power demands that lies ahead.
In a January report on Canada’s energy status, the Paris-based International Energy Agency called on Canada to as much as triple its clean-energy production. But Canada has no plans to do so.
By contrast, Ontario’s commitment to nuclear is evident at its Bruce Nuclear Generating Station on the shores of Lake Huron near Kincardine.
Bruce Power, as the facility is called, is one of the world’s largest operating nuclear stations. It alone supplies more than one-third of Ontario’s power needs. It has a multi-year plan to extend the reactors’ life to 2064.
Nuclear is not the panacea. Nuclear plants are costly and time-consuming to construct. The challenge of safely storing nuclear debris has not been solved.
But there isn’t that much waste. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that America’s total nuclear waste would fill a single football field, 9.1 metres high. The lack of capital from the industry to find safe storage solutions is a major reason storage has remained unsolved.
The nuclear industry is Long familiar with NIMBY protests. But “not in my backyard” activists have lately targeted planned wind and solar installations, and hydro projects as well.
As we have already mentioned, the nuclear sector has been at a crossroads in the past. Electric utilities have often had to make difficult investment decisions about the future nuclear power.
These decisions will have a significant impact on public health, the environment, and energy security. The stakes are higher than ever before.
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