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In 1973, the world’s post-war boom hit the rocks. Oil producers restricted supply, sending prices soaring. The AftermathNation like America sought energy independence after the oil shock.
In 2022, history may repeat itself as the Russian invasion in Ukraine takes place.
Why? German and other major European countries have turned to Russian gas as a way to fill the gap between the retirement of coal plants. You can move onFrom nuclear power after Fukushima’s disaster to the point where zero emission renewables and storage can replace it completely.
With around 40% of the EU’s gas coming from Russia, the invasion will focus the minds of European leaders on the question of whether they can rely on these supplies. The war in Ukraine occurs as much of the world is already in energy chaos. Pandemic disruptions to transport are sending energy prices soaring.
To make things even more complicated, the invasion arrives just Days beforeThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change publishes a report on regional impacts and adaptation to climate change. This will help to highlight efforts to reduce climate-related damage.
How will it all play out?
Andy Rain/EPA
Why Russia is important to world energy consumers
Russian economy relies heavily on exporting fossil fuels. The nation of 145 million is one of the world’s The largest energy exporters. Russia is the world’s largest gas exporter, the second largest crude oil exporter, and the third largest coal exporter.
Russia Is well awareIts vulnerability in selling fossil fuels on to Europe, which is committed towards decarbonisation.
Russia’s coal lobby has been active in expanding its Asian markets for many years. This is due to the European climate driven restrictions, which pose a risk to exports.
Russia wants to diversify, even though Europe is still the largest gas export market. Increasing suppliesChina
In 2019, the Power of Siberia pipeline began transporting natural gas from Siberia directly into China. Russia invaded Ukraine only weeks before. Announcement of a dealFor a new pipeline to China.
We are likely to see Russia’s pivot towards Asia intensify in the current climate.
Dmitry Lovetsky/AP
This will speed up the transition to renewable energy.
It was only in January that Germany’s new climate and economy minister announced Major new measures to accelerate his nation’s slowing renewable roll-out and power industry with clean energy.
And now? We believe the crisis has the potential to accelerate Europe’s trend toward renewables, as it seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian gas.
There may be increased efforts to shift towards interdependent renewable generation such as the Offshore windfarms proposedDesigned to be shared by multiple European countries.
This is not possible. In the short-term, there is a high risk that Ukraine’s crisis will focus attention on energy security rather than decarbonisation.
We might see a return in coal power. Germany, for example, may have to reconsider or delay its nuclear phase out.
Australia and other major fossil fuel exporters are also included. Already lined upTo fill any gaps on European markets
What does this mean to international climate efforts?
Russia was long considered a notorious laggard. However, it has not been willing to participate in international climate negotiations.
In the lead up to Glasgow’s COP26 climate conference last year, Russia hinted it Open may be possibleto be more serious about climate action. Putin pledged the country to carbon neutrality by 2060. Domestic policy developmentsRecent months have indicated that a shift was underway.
This will be hindered by the war. For now, there is no chance of Russia engaging in a greater climate dialogue before the next major climate meeting in Egypt later in the year.
This is a setback for international climate efforts, given Russia’s role as one of the world’s Top five greenhouse gas emitters.
Are there other environmental damages?
Both cyber and traditional warfare can significantly increase climate emissions and cause havoc on the environment as well as many species. This morning, the stark implications for future generations were highlighted by the Russian takeover Chernobyl
It is unknown what Russia intends to do. However, the targeted destruction nuclear facilities as either a weapon or an act deterrence would likely violate international law.
Shutterstock
The crime of wantingon environmental destruction is just as grave as the targeting of civilians and the destruction or cultural heritage. 2020: The Red Cross issued guidelinesProtecting the environment during wartime.
These make the obligations of combatants very obvious, although there is a caveat. Accountability history is weak.
This is a serious problem. The founding document of the International Criminal Court notes it is a war crime to intentionally cause “widespread, long-term, and severe damage to the natural environment”, assuming it was clearly excessive relative to the military advantage gained.
Russia signed this document, known as the Rome statute, in 2000. However, it has never ratified it to become a member. Russia announced its 2016 independence. WithdrawalYou can find the International Criminal Court here.
This came after the court ruled Russia’s activity in Crimea following the 2014 annexation of that region amounted to an “ongoing occupation”.
A historic agreement was also reached by the international community about the Definition of ecocide in 2021, as “unlawful or wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe and widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts”.
This means that it is possible for the Russian government to be held responsible for both humanitarian and environmental effects of its aggression.
Read more:
Five essential commodities will be affected by the war in Ukraine
