Will war accelerate the energy transition?

Europe has been pushing nuclear and gas as an integral part of the energy transition away from carbon-heavy fossil fuels such as oil and gas. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe has felt a sudden urge to be independent, especially through renewables.

Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner, of the pro-business FDP, now calls renewables “freedom energies,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz labels them “crucial for our security.”

Scholz stated that “the faster we push for the expansion of renewable energys, the better,” a few days later.

Germany is dependent on Russia for its oil and at most 32% of its gas. According to some estimates, $700 million (780,000,000 euro) of oil imports are required daily.

The Stand with Ukraine coalition (which includes hundreds of organizations around the world, including environmental groups Greenpeace & 350.org) also calls for a ban. It has also called for a global ban on fossil fuel production.

The coalition stated that Putin had deliberately weaponized fossil gas to increase his energy dominance over Europe. It published a letter Friday calling for an end to global fossil fuel addiction. They stated that Putin used oil and gas to fuel terror and escalate violence, which underlines the role of the fossil fuel system in driving conflict.

The coalition recognizes that 40% of Russia’s federal budget is made from oil and gas, which also account for 60% of Russian exports. Therefore, it calls for “bold actions towards radical decarbonization of our societies.”

The Monday release of the damning IPCC climate report was a further incentive to move forward with clean energy transition.

But do we have what it takes to speed up this expansion?

Diversification or decarbonization

The question of energy independence is still divided into two camps: should self sufficiency come from other local or “friendly” gas or nuclear sources, meaning diversification, or should it be achieved through more ambitious energy independence via local clean energy sources such as wind or solar, which is to call decarbonization.

This split was evident in the International Energy Agency’s detailed 10-point planThe EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas will be reduced by next winter, according to a Thursday release. 

While the plan focuses partly on decarbonization through great renewable uptake, it also demands greater gas diversification and proposes temporarily delaying the shutdown of five nuclear reactors in Europe.

“In the short-term, the only real option is to diversify,” said David Victor, a professor of innovation and public policy at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California San Diego.

He believes that renewables can scale up in the medium-term, especially offshore wind. However, he warns that political resistance to large wind farms will limit their expansion in the immediate future.

“I don’t see governments realistically removing those obstacles,” he explained, due the considerable public backlash.

Carbon Tracker, a UK-based climate thinktank believes Europe can limit its dependence upon Russian gas by diversifying into local fossil fuel sources and importing natural gas (also known as LNG) from the US. This argument is neither realistic nor economically feasible.

According to a Carbon Tracker blog, the initial problem is the lengthy lead time required to build new gas terminals or mines. This means that immediate price pressures won’t be resolved. As part of existing decarbonization strategies, existing solar and/or wind energy resources can be quickly scaled-up. This can be done more economically due to a sharp drop in renewable energy prices.

Jonathan Sims, senior analyst for power & utilities at Carbon Tracker, stated that “renewables are already less expensive investments than existing gas capacities.” Variable wind and solar energy production will be easier because battery storage costs are expected to be more affordable by 2030.

Ketan Joshi, a climate science communicator and author based in Oslo, said that we already have “strong understanding about how to integrate solar and wind into complex, interconnected grids systems.” He also stated that it is “certainly technically as well as economically feasible.”

Changing minds and regulations

Victor is also cautioned that “the roadblocks” will be political and socio-economic, including the ability to get “communities and areas that host the new technology” to embrace the change.

Sims sees the “numerous obstacles” to a more ambitious decarbonization drive “policy-related” and not “economic or technical.”

One stumbling block is very lengthy regulatory approval processes for wind and solar projects which in Italy, for example, are as long as seven years, according to Sims, leaving the country well short of clean energy capacity required to meet climate goals.

This can cause governments to favor single “larger new build gas projects” as they are easier to approve than multiple “smaller solar or wind farms.”

Sims said that many EU member states are seeking to simplify or relax planning and regulatory processes in order to “accelerate low-carbon capacity deployment rates.” This trend will likely accelerate due to the current crisis.  

Electric heating to ignite the energy transition 

Germany is home to around 25% of the greenhouse gas emissions due to buildings’ fossil-based energy consumption, especially heating.  

So to both minimize Russian fossil fuel dependence and mitigate climate change, German environmental think tank the Wuppertal Institute this week released a study, commissioned by Greenpeace, that shows how heating can be completely run on renewable energies by 2035. 

The key technology would consist of electric heat pumps powered by renewables that would replace oil and gas systems often fed with Russian fossil fuels.

The Institute said in a statement that “A smart strategy focused upon increasing efficiency, expanding renewables, and reducing supply risks not only reduces supply risk.” Statement. It stated that the transition would be “highly economic attractive for households and businesses as well as public institutions.”

Bill McKibben, an environmental activist and author, believes that Europe could have heat pumps in greater numbers. “President Biden should immediately invoke the Defense Production Act to get American manufacturers to start producing electric heat pumps in quantity, so we can ship them to Europe where they can be installed in time to dramatically lessen Putins power,” he Write This week.  

While David Victor insists that in the short-term, diversified gas sources, including imported LNG delivered on floating terminals, will be necessary if the EU is to quickly ween off Russian hydrocarbons, Jonathan Sims suggests that decarbonization can also be aggressively pursued.  

Although gas “played an important role” in the initial transition to coal-fired power, it must not be sustained as it will require large-scale infrastructure investments that will not yield returns.  

He stated that building a power grid around “lower cost, lower risk renewables” will allow us to “eventually become self-sufficient with our energy supplies,” and that this approach will accelerate our progress towards net zero emission targets. 

Edited by Tamsin Walker