Despite the vile horse-trading between a few key participants at the last minute that took the remaining participants by surprise, and greatly diluted the final agreement, it was hailed as a success with countries agreeing to further improve various climate goals within a year. Because even if all other agreed actions were taken, analysts predicted that global warming would still exceed 2C by 2050, the commitment to improve climate plans was crucial. Let’s not forget what all this could mean. According to the IPCC scientists, every 0.5C increase in global warming causes clear increases in the intensity of extremes such as heatwaves and heavy precipitation as well as agricultural droughts and ecological droughts. Even small increases in temperature can have significant consequences. It is regrettable that some countries have reneged on this section of the agreement.
GWCT asked Scottish leaders to agree to support their farmers as they adapt to climate change. This is even if temperatures rise only 1.5C, which currently seems very optimistic. We don’t have all the tools necessary to make sensible, wholesale changes to systems and process. The Government must acknowledge that such major changes will be required while maintaining output to feed an increasing world population. This will not lead to a further decline of biodiversity. These details are still not covered by the COP26 attendees. Furthermore, due to the current relative hiatus with the development of Scottish agripolitica, it remains to see what measures will remain in place to support farmers in this difficult time.
We urge the Scottish Government to take decisive action over the next years, to develop detailed proposals to address these issues and to publish a plan of agri-environment policy. This plan will not only acknowledge the dangers of climate change but also improve on previous versions in terms of their effectiveness in supporting and increasing farmland biodiversity. This area has seen a lot of money spent over the years with very few success stories and ever-decreasing numbers of farmland bees, butterflies and birds. The Scottish countryside must change if summers are going dry and winters will get wetter with heatwaves and storms becoming more common. This will make it difficult for wildlife habitats to survive and food supplies to continue to be maintained. Don’t forget the farmer and his family! It is important to consult with a wide range of people and groups before you draw up new plans. Otherwise, they will be doomed not to succeed. Many were disappointed by COP26. The next step in 2022 will determine what our future holds.
Dr. Dave Parish, Head, Scotland Lowland Research, Game & Wildlife Conservation Trust