In recent days, central bank policymakers opted to overlook the Omicron strain’s economic consequences and focus instead on the temporary risks they had dismissed in the last few months. This led traders to price more interest-rate increases, sending ripples through currencies and bonds, as well as stocks.
It is a blueprint for what investors can expect next year. The prospect of multiple Federal Reserve increases in 2022 has buoyed the pound, while knee-jerk rises in the and bond yields suggest that traders are focusing their attention on the European Central Banks of upside risk to inflation.
These assets have been underperforming in the past due to higher rates and inflation.
- Stocks for cyclical events
- Financial sectors
- Energy sectors
- Dollar versus EM currencies that have a large number foreign debts
The Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 15 that it would shift to a more aggressive tapering schedule for its bond-buying program in an effort to combat 39-year-high inflation. The central bank expects three interest rates increases next year.
We need to screen for stocks that offer earnings stability at a fair price. This is because the stock market will be dealing with a more hawkish Fed as well as execution risk due to higher inflation, continued supply/demand imbalances, and a higher level of volatility.
China’s central bank, however, cut its benchmark lending rate Monday for the first time since April 2020. This was at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Peoples Bank of China has lowered the one year rate to 3.8% from 3.85%. The monthly prime rate for five-year loans was 4.65%, which is unchanged from the previous month. According to Wind Information data, April 2020 was the last time that the central bank reduced the one-year and five-year LPR.
LPR affects the lending rates for household loans and corporate loans. Last week, the central bank reduced the amount of cash that banks had to keep on reserve. This was the second such move of the year.
China was the first major country to escape the worst effects of the pandemics shock. However, this year, especially since July has seen a slowdown in growth due to a lack of consumer spending, Beijing’s zero-tolerance policy to control subsequent pandemics, and tighter regulations on the real estate industry.
The Chinese government’s annual Central Economic Work Conference was held earlier this month. Top leaders stressed the importance of stability next year. According to state media, the meeting concluded with
Prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate. Liquidity should be maintained at a reasonable level and ample.
