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- The warming of the world’s oceans by climate change is pushing fish away from their current habitats and toward Earth’s poles.
- A new study predicts that by 2030, 25% of global shared fish stocks could be moving, with around three-quarters seeing at least one species move outside of their exclusive economic zones.
- The shifts could be earlier for countries in the tropics, particularly those in South Asia, Latin America, Oceania, and the Caribbean. While some countries may benefit at the expense others, these fish stock movements could lead to disputes and upend existing fisheries agreements.
- According to the study authors, countries could renegotiate existing catch quotas to account for climate change-driven fish movements in order avoid any disputes.
Unlike boundaries on the land, the ocean is contiguous — fish move and transcend international waters as they please, without bothering about jurisdictions. All is well, as long the ocean temperatures remain stable, the fish will remain in their habitats. However, as ocean temperatures rise rapidly, fish are moving fast, disrupting fishing treaties that limit who can fish in the same waters.
“Many of the fisheries management agreements made to regulate shared stocks were established in past decades, with rules that apply to a world situation that is not the same as today,” Juliano Palacios-AbrantesIn a press release, he said that he was a marine biologist at University of Wisconsin-Madison.
A recent Study, Palacios-Abrantes and his colleagues from Canada, the U.S., U.K. and Switzerland predict that about half of the world’s commercial fish in shared waters will move from their known habitats by the end of the century. Published in the journal Global Change Biology, the study warns of a dramatic change in fish stocks by as early as 2030 that could lead to international disputes in exclusive economic zones, the area within 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) of a country’s coast where it has exclusive rights for fishing.
According to the study, climate change could force 23% of all shared fish stocks to leave their historical habitats and migrate routes by 2030 if there is no action taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That number could rise to as high as 45% by the end the century.
The researchers also found that nearly three-quarters (75%) of EEZs would see at least one of its fish stocks move by 2030. 81% of EEZs will experience the same fate by 2100.
The world’s fish are on the move
Scientists were able to identify the causes of cancer more than a decade ago. Discovered that climate change was driving the world’s fish toward Earth’s poles, depleting populations in the tropics. Like all other species, fish species have a preferred place to live.
“If temperatures [get]If the fish is too warm in its habitat, it will not be able to thrive. [that are] within their preferred temperature,” said Andrea BuchholzThe recent study was not conducted by a Canadian marine biologist with the Fisheries and Marine Institute.
Palacios-Abrantes’s study analyzed the shifting ranges of 633 fish species in shared waters between 2005 and 2014. It then projected how these species’ range may shift as oceans continue to heat up. The study also calculated changes in catch proportions within each EEZ neighboring for each year between 1951- 2100.
Projections showed that countries in tropics, particularly those in the Caribbean, Latin America and Oceania, will experience the shift sooner than other regions.
“One bad thing about it is that the fish leaving the tropics are not being replaced by anything,” says Daniel PaulyCo-author of the 2009 groundbreaking study that first reported the movement of fish poleward, was. Many coastal communities in tropical nations rely on locally caught fish as a vital source for protein.
Fish stocks along the coasts North and South America and the Atlantic coast of Southern Africa are expected to move in the opposite direction, while those around the coasts Pacific Central America and West Africa may shift towards the equator. The study predicts that the heat will reach temperate countries by 2033.
According to the study, these movements will impact fishing industry revenues. The study shows that the EEZs of countries such as Mexico, Ecuador, Norway and Madagascar could lose more than half of their top five shared fish stocks by 2030. This could reduce fishing revenues and, in poorer countries, threaten food security.
Some countries are likely to gain at the expense others. In the near future, Guatemala will likely gain from fish moving from Mexico’s waters in the Pacific; Mozambique will see an influx of fish from Madagascar’s waters; and Russia is likely to see gains from both Norway and Japan in the Barents Sea, according to the study.
Rising conflict: Moving fish
This isn’t just a future issue. Already, shifting fish stocks are happening. This gives us a glimpse of the kind of conflicts that might be coming in the future.
“One prominent example would be the American lobster fisheries on the U.S. and Canadian East Coast,” Buchholz said. “Lobster catches in the more southern, warmer southern New England [waters]Have experienced declines [while] lobster catches in the Canadian Maritimes are on a record high.”
This boom led directly to the 2020 conflicts between Mi’kmaq and non-Indigenous lobster fishers in Nova Scotia. The long-running “mackerel war” in Europe, between Denmark (specifically the Faroe Islands), Norway and Iceland, is another example of how shifting fisheries can lead to international disputes.
Negotiations to resolve such conflicts can take a long time, especially when the stakes are high, and countries can miss the catch when it’s there.
“The time [taken] negotiating the diplomacy is just not adapted to these changes,” Pauly said.
The findings from Palacios-Abrantes’s study could act as an early warning system showing where disputes are possible and when, allowing countries to use the data to hammer out changes to existing agreements. The study also provides reference points for countries to renegotiate current catch limits to take into account the effects of climate change.
However, we must first address climate change to ensure sustainable fisheries. Scientists agree with the Sustainable Development Goal.
“To have a future [for] our ocean’s fish and the people who depend on them, fisheries and marine ecosystems need to be managed with rapid climate change in mind on both large and small scales,” Buchholz said.
Despite repeated attempts PromisionsAnd promisesGlobal greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in wealthy countries, remain Flat, threatening the goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5° Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) by 2100.
Pauly said he isn’t too optimistic about any meaningful actions being taken on climate change.
“People will always speak from the two sides of their mouth, and say we are trying to do this and that,” he said. “But, if emissions continue, then you are condemning people to losing everything.”
Banner image: A fishing boat in Indonesia, one of the world’s leading fishing nations. As waters in the tropics warm due to climate change, fish species are predicted to move toward Earth’s poles, depriving people of food and livelihood in tropical countries. Image by Rhett A. Butler/Mongabay.
Citations:
Palacios‐Abrantes, J., Frölicher, T. L., Reygondeau, G., Sumaila, U. R., Tagliabue, A., Wabnitz, C. C. C., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2022). Timing and magnitude of climate‐driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management. Global Change Biology, 28(7), 2312-2326. doi:10.1111/gcb.16058
Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., Zeller, D., & Pauly, D. (2010). Under climate change, large-scale redistribution to maximize fisheries catch potential in global ocean. Global Change Biology, 16(1), 24-35. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x
