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The federal election campaign takes place against a background of flooding on Australia’s east coast, where some ResidentsYou can still stay in temporary accommodation for up to a month following the disaster. It’s just the latest reminder Australia is set to become a poster child for climate change harms.
Australia has warmed about 1.4℃ since 1910. It Has comeExtreme heat, bushfires or floods, drought, and now, six Massive bleaching eventThe Great Barrier Reef.
Yet, meaningful climate policy debate was absent from this election campaign. So Climate Analytics, a research organisation I lead, has weighed up the policies of the Coalition, Labor, the Greens and the “teal” independents.
We Analysed the global warming implications of each party’s or candidate’s target for 2030.
As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC). Warns, this timeframe is crucial if the world is to stay below the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. It is crucial to take urgent action by 2030 if we are to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Alarmingly, the Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3℃ of global warming. Labor’s policy is slightly better, but only policies by the Greens and the “teals” are consistent with keeping global warming at or below 1.5℃.
The Coalition
Based on 2005 levels of emissions, the Morrison government wants to reduce its carbon emissions by 22 to 28 percent by 2030. If all other national governments took a similar level of action, Earth would reach at least 3℃ of warming, bordering on 4℃, our analysis shows.
This would lead to the destruction of all tropical coral reefs, including Ningaloo and Great Barrier Reef. Extreme heatwaves on land, which currently occur only once a decade, could happen almost every year.
Famously, the Morrison government refused an increase in its 2030 commitments during the United Nations climate conference held in Glasgow last year. But the final pact from the meeting, which Australia signed, requires that by November this year, governments will strengthen their 2030 targets to align with the 1.5℃ goal.
Australia is under intense international pressure to fulfill this obligation or face further sanctions global condemnation.
Mick Tsikas/AAP
Labor
Labor’s target of a 43% emissions cut by 2030, from 2005 levels, is in line with 2℃ of global warming. That means it’s not consistent with the Paris Agreement.
Under 2℃ of warming, extreme heat events that currently happen once a decade could occur about every three to four years. They would also reach maximum temperatures about 1.7℃ hotterIn recent decades, heatwaves have been more common than heatwaves.
Should Earth overshoot 1.5℃ warming and perhaps reach 2℃, some suggest this may be temporary and temperatures could be brought back down. Technologies that remove carbon dioxide would be required to do this. These technologies are not available. UncertainThese come with risks.
And the IPCC’s Recent report warned even if 1.5℃ warming is exceeded temporarily, severe and potentially irreversible damage would result. The total destruction of the Great Barrier Reef is one example.
Under 2℃ of warming the most extreme heat events that occurred once in a decade in recent times could occur about every three to four years. The heatwaves would also reach a maximum temperature 1.7℃ hotter than those in recent decades.
Lukas Coch/AAP
‘Teal’ independents
The “teals” are a group of pro-climate independent candidates.
Most prominent is Warringah MP Zalisteggall, whose contribution to climate change BillThe 2030 target is to reduce emissions by 60% from 2005 levels. Most climate policies of the “teals” are generally in line with the Steggall bill.
The target is also Industry support.
We find this target consistent with 1.5℃ of warming, and so compatible with the Paris Agreement. However, it’s at the upper end of the emission levels consistent with the 1.5℃ pathway.
Continue reading:
Teal Independents are looking for Liberal voters and trying to spooke Liberal MPs
Bianca Di Marchi/AAP
The Greens
Of all the climate policies on the table this election, the Greens target of a 74% cut by 2030, based on 2005 levels, is most comfortably consistent with keeping warming below 1.5℃.
That level of warming would still cause damage to Earth’s natural systemsAnd our way of life. But it would avert significant devastation – for example, allowing parts of the Ningaloo and Great BarrierReefs are essential for survival.
Under 1.5℃ global warming, the most extreme heat eventsThe current frequency of these events is once per decade. This could be reduced to approximately every five to six year.
Continue reading:
Polls show a jump in the Greens vote – but its real path to power lies in reconciling with Labor
AAP Image/Mick Tsikas
Problems in the land sector
The above calculations don’t paint a very positive picture. They are, however, optimistic.
That’s because they include emission reductions from the land and forestry sector through such activities as tree planting and maintaining native vegetation. These so-called carbon sinks were recently described by a key insider as a “fraud”.
The analysis does not include the land and forest sector. This results in a significant drop in the various emission reduction targets. They are between 11% and 13 percent for the Coalition, 31% Labor, 50% Teals, and 67% Greens.
What’s more, even warming limited to 1.5℃ will ReduceThe ability of the land sector in storing and removing carbon.
More to you
The scientific consensus is Clear. Greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest and plummet thereafter, to limit global warming to 1.5℃.
Unless policies are substantially strengthened, Earth is set to hit 1.5℃ warming in the 2030s, and a future of at least 3℃ warming awaits.
The next parliament is responsible for protecting Australians from climate disaster. Australian voters have an opportunity to send a clear signal to the next parliament on May 21 regarding the kind of world that we want for future generations.
Continue reading:
Seriously ugly: here’s how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century
