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The OKR mastermind’s action plan for getting to net-zero by 2050
The climate crisis is a historic challenge. It can feel overwhelming to me to just think about it, or work on it..A single contribution feels like a drop in a rising ocean. The more I learn more about climate change, I see its complexity.
Some people are able to reduce complexity without reducing its meaning. John Doerr’s action plan is one of my favorite examples. It helps us understand the historical aspect of the challenge and gives us measurable actions that help us recognize where we are and what we need.
Doerr is right to point out that
“for the math to work at this titanic scale, we’ll need to get more people in motion and more technologies deployed and more new ones invented than at any time in human history. We’ll also need more money and so much more leadership and unity if we’re going to save a habitable planet.”
In his famous business book “Measure What Matters,” the venture capitalist Doerr outlined a revolutionary approach to goal-setting — Objectives and Key Recommendations (OKRs).. OKRs are widely used. They encourage organizations to concentrate on a few essential targets and break them down into actionable results.
John Doerr applied OKR to the most grave and serious problem of our time, climate change. In his recently published book “Speed & Scale,”Doerr proposes an action plan that will help achieve the ambitious goal of a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
His high-level action plan literally fits on one napkin.
Net-Zero by 2050 (halfway to 2030)
- Electrify Transportation
- Decarbonize your Grid
- Fix Food
- Protect Nature
- Clean Up Industry
- Carbon Removal
Tools: Policy & Politics, Movements, Innovation, Investment
John Doerr then breaks down the first six objectives into tangible results. Objectives 7–10, Policy & Politics, Movements, Innovation, and Investment, are so-called “Accelerant Objectives.” They mark the tools to be used to solve the tremendous problem.
Here’s a Summary of his action plans, published in Speed & Scale.
Objective 1 — Electrify Transportation — Reduce eight gigatons of transportation emissions to two gigatons by 2050.
KR 1.1PriceEVs will be priced at the same price as new combustion-engine vehicles by 2024 (US$35K) and by 2030 (US$11K) in India and China.
KR 1.2 Cars: EVs will make up one of two new personal cars in 2030, and 95% in 2040.
KR 1.3Buses & TrucksAll new buses will be electric by 2025. 30% of medium and heavy trucks will be zero-emission by 2030. 95% of trucks will be zero-emission by 2045.
KR 1.4 Miles: By 2040, 50% of the miles driven (2-wheelers, 3-wheelers, cars, buses, and trucks) on the world’s roads are electric and by 2050, 95% of miles driven are electric. ↓ 5 Gt
KR 1.5 Planes:20% of all miles will be travelled using low-carbon fuel by 2025 and 40% by 2040. 0.3 Gt ↓ 0.3 Gt
KR 1.6 0.6 Gt Maritime: By 2030, shift all new construction to “zero-ready”. ↓ 0.6 Gt
Objective 2 — Decarbonize the Grid — By 2050, reduce 24 gigatons of global electricity and heating emissions to 3 gigatons.
KR 2.1Zero Emissions: 50% of the electricity in the world will come from zero emissions sources by 2035. By 2025, 90% of electricity will come from zero emission sources. (up from 38% in 2020).* ↓ 16.5 Gt
KR 2.2Solar and wind:By 2025, solar or wind will be less expensive to build and maintain than emitting resources in 100% of countries (up 67% from 2020).
KR 2.3 Storage Electricity: By 2025, storage is below $50 per kWh for short duration (4–24 hours) and by 2030, $10 per kWh for long duration (14–30 days).
KR 2.4Coal and Gas No new coal or gas plants after 2021; existing plants to retire or zero out emissions by 2025 for coal and by 2035 for gas (timeline for developed countries, 5–10 years more for developing countries).
KR 2.5 Methane EmissionsBy 2025 all leaks and venting will be eliminated. 3 Gt ↓ 3 Gt
KR 2.6 Heating and cooking: By 2040, cut gas and oil for heating and cooking in half (timeline for developed countries, 5–10 years more for developing countries).↓ 1.5 Gt
KR 2.7 Clean Economy By 2035, reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase energy efficiency to quadruple clean energy productivity rate (GDP ÷ fossil fuel consumption).
Objective 3 — Fix Food Reduce agricultural emissions — By 2050, go from 9 gigatons to 2 gigatons.
KR 3.1 Farm SoilsYou can improve soil health by reducing the carbon content of topsoils to a minimum 3%. 2 Gt ↓ 2 Gt
KR 3.2 Fertilizers: Stop using nitrogen-based fertilizers in excess and find greener alternatives that will cut down on emissions by half by 2050. 0.5 Gt ↓ 0.5 Gt
KR 3.3 Consumption:Promoting lower-emissions proteins by reducing the annual intake of beef and milk by 25% by 2030 and 50% by 2050. 3 Gt ↓ 3 Gt
KR 3.4 Rice: To reduce methane emissions from rice cultivation by 50% by 2050 0.5 Gt ↓ 0.5 Gt
KR 3.5Food waste:Reduce food waste from 33% to 10% of all food production 1 Gt ↓ 1 Gt
Objective 4 — Protect Nature — By 2050, go from 6 gigatons of emissions to -1 gigaton.
KR 4.1 Forests:To achieve net-zero forest destruction by 2030. 6 Gt ↓ 6 Gt
KR 4.2 Oceans: By 2030, deep-sea bottom fishing must be eliminated and oceans must be protected at least 30%. By 2050, 50% of oceans will be protected. 1 Gt ↓ 1 Gt
KR 4.3 Lands: Expand protected land from 15% to 30% today, to 50% by 2030.
Objective 5 — Clean Up Industry Reduce — By 2050, 12 gigatons of industrial emissions to 4 gigatons.
KR 5.1 Steel:Reduce the total carbon intensity in steel production by 50% by 2030 and 90% by 2040. 3 Gt ↓ 3 Gt
KR 5.2 Cement:Reduce the cement production’s total carbon intensity by 25% by 2030 and 90% by 2040 2 Gt ↓ 2 Gt
KR 5.3Other IndustriesTo reduce emissions from other industrial sources, such as plastics, chemicals and paper, by at least 80% by 2050 2 Gt ↓ 2 Gt
Objective 6 — Remove Carbon — Remove 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide per year
KR 6.1 Nature-Based Removal:By 2025, reduce at least 1 gigaton annually, 3 gigatons per year by 2030, and 5 gigatons per year by 2040. ↓ 5 Gt
KR 6.2Engineered RemovalBy 2030, at least 1 gigaton per day will be eliminated, 3 gigatons in 2040 and 5 gigatons in 2050. ↓ 5 Gt
Objective 7 — Win Politics and Policy
KR 7.1 Commitments: By 2050, each country enacts a national commitment to reach net-zero emissions and gets at least halfway there by 2030 (timeline for developed countries, 5–10 years more for developing countries).
KR 7.1.1 Power: Set an electricity sector emission reduction requirement of 50% by 2025; 80% by 2030; 90% by 2035; and 100% by 2040.
KR 7.1.2 Transportation:Decarbonize all new cars and buses by 2035; freight ships by 2030; semi trucks by 2045; and 40% of flights carbon neutralized by 2040
KR 7.1.3 Buildings:By 2030, all new residential and commercial buildings must meet zero-emissions standards. Also, by 2030, all non-electrical items must be banned.
KR 7.1.4 Industry:By 2040, at least half of industrial processes will have been eliminated by fossil fuels. Complete elimination by 2050.
KR 7.1.5Carbon LabelingAll goods should bear emissions-footprint labels
KR 7.1.6 LeaksControl flaring, ban venting, and demand prompt capping of methane leaking.
KR 7.2 Subsidies:End subsidies for fossil fuel companies, and harmful agricultural practices.
KR 7.3Carbon price: Set national prices on greenhouse gases at a minimum of $55 per ton, rising 5% annually (timeline for developed countries, 5–10 years more for developing countries).
KR 7.4Global BansHFCs should be banned as refrigerants. Single-use plastics should also be banned for all other purposes.
KR 7.5 Government R&D: Double (at least) public investment in research and develop; increase it fivefold for the United States.
Accelerant Objective 8 — Turn Movements into Action
KR 8.1 Voters: By 2025, climate change will be a top two vote issue in twenty of the top-emitting nations.
KR 8.2 Government: A majority of government officials — elected or appointed — will support the drive to net-zero.
KR 8.3 Business:All Fortune Global 500 companies must immediately commit to reaching net zero by 2040.
KR 8.3.1 Transparency:All these companies must publish transparency reports about their emissions by 2022.
KR 8.3.2 Operations:These companies will achieve net zero by 2030 (electricity, vehicles and buildings).
KR 8.4 Education EquityThe world will have universal primary and second education by 2040.
KR 8.5Health Equity Reduce the gap between racial groups and socio-economic classes in terms of greenhouse gas-related mortality rates by 2040.
KR 8.6Economic EquityGlobal clean energy transition creates 65 millions new jobs. These jobs are equally distributed and outpace the loss of fossil fuel jobs.
Accelerant Objective 9 — Innovate!
KR 9.1 Batteries:Produce 10,000 GWh of battery annually by 2035 at less than $80 per Kilowatt.
KR 9.2 Electricity:2030: Zero-emission baseload electricity will cost $0.02/kWh. Peak-demand power will cost $0.08/kWh.
KR 9.3Green HydrogenProduction of hydrogen from zero emission sources is cheaper at $2.0 per kg in 2030 and $1.0 per kg in 2040.
KR 9.4 Carbon RemovalThe cost of engineered carbon dioxide reduction will drop to $100 per tonne by 2040 and $50 per tonne by 2030.
KR 9.5 Carbon-Neutral Fuels:The cost of synthetic fuel will drop to $2.50/gallon for jet fuel by 2035 and $3.50/gallon for gasoline by 2035.
Accelerant Objective 10 — Invest!
KR 10.1 Financial Incentives:Increase global government subsidies and support of clean energy from $128 to $600 billion
KR 10.2 Government R&D: Increase public-sector funding of energy R&D from $7.8 billion to $40 billion a year in the U.S.; other countries should aim to triple current funding.
KR 10.3 Venture Capital:Increase capital investment in private companies from $13.6 billion – $50 billion per annum
KR 10.4 Project Financing: Increase zero emission project financing from $300 billion up to $1 trillion annually
KR 10.5Philanthropic Investment:Increase philanthropic spending from $10 billion to 30 billion dollars per year
One of my main takeaways was that climate action requires a broad range, from politics to innovation to business to all of us. Check out Speed & Scale’s Website Find out more about the book, and how you can help solve the climate crisis.
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