The report warns that at most one year between 2022-2026 will exceed the 1.5C mark, and that 93% of the time this period will be the warmest on record. It is almost certain that the next five year will be hotter on average than the previous five.
In 2015, there was little chance that world temperatures would temporarily exceed 1.5C for the next five year. These odds have been increasing ever since, as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases, primarily through the use fossil fuels.
Scientists warn that the world must limit global warming to 1.5C above temperatures before industrialization in order to avoid more severe consequences of the climate crisis. The Paris Agreement, which aims to limit temperature rise to 2C but preferably 1.5C, was signed by the majority of the world’s population in 2015.
The world is already at minimum It is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer that it was before industrialization.
“The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic,” he added. It is a sign of when climate impacts will become more harmful to people and the planet.
Even at 1.5C many coral reefs in the world will disappear, and permafrost may reach a tipping level in certain places. Permafrost (permanently) frozen ground that lies below much of the Arctic. It keeps large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) in reserve. It melts in warmer temperatures and releases CO2, which can contribute to climate change.
“A single year of exceedance above 1.5°C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement,” said Leon Hermanson from the UK’s Met Office, which led the report, “but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5 °C could be exceeded for an extended period.”
In California, which is entirely in drought conditions, two of the state’s largest reservoirs — Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville — are at “critically low levels,” according to the US Drought Monitor.
Taalas stated, “For as long we continue to release greenhouse gases, temperatures are going to continue to rise.”
“And alongside this, our oceans continue to become warmer, more acidic, sea-ice and glaciers continue to melt, sea levels will continue increasing, and our weather to become more extreme.” Arctic warming is extremely high. What happens in the Arctic impacts all of us.
Andrew King, a University of Melbourne Lecturer in Climate Science, said the report highlights how fast humans are warming our planet.
“Our greenhouse gas emission are still at near record highs, and until we get them down to net zero, we’re going continue to see global heating,” he stated.
Net zero is a state in which the world reduces its greenhouse gas emission as much as possible and offsets any that are difficult to avoid. This can be achieved through technology or tree-planting to capture carbon dioxide.
King said, “If we don’t take that action, we will have much more heatwaves and bushfire situations as well as coral reefs which have been decimated beyond all recognition.”