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According to a new report from the COP26, 65 countries will see their GDP fall by around 20 percent by 2050 if the temperature continues to rise.
According to a report released Monday at the COP26 climate negotiations in Glasgow, the 65 most vulnerable countries will see their gross domestic products (GDPs) drop by 20 percent on average by 2050, and by 64 percent by 2100 if the global temperature rises by 2.9 degrees Celsius (5.2 degrees Fahrenheit).
Christian Aid’s study found that even if global temperature rises were limited to 1.5C (2.7F), this would allow the same countries to achieve a GDP growth rate of 13 percent in 2050 and 33 per cent by the end of the century.
To date, Earth’s average surface temperature has risen 1.1C (2F) compared with late 19th-century levels.
The study findings show that more than a third of the world’s nations urgently need help to build up resilience if their economies are to withstand the onslaught of heatwaves, drought, floods and storms made more intense and deadly by global warming.
“The ability of countries in the Global South to sustainably develop is seriously jeopardised,” said lead author Marina Andrijevic from Humboldt University in Berlin.
“Policy choices that we make right now are crucial for preventing further damage.”
Eighteen of the top ten most affected countries are located in Africa, with two others in South America.
Under the current climate policy trajectory, all 10 will suffer GDP damage of more that 70% by 2100. This includes 40% even if global warming is capped to 1.5C.
Sudan is the country suffering the largest GDP loss. It was hit by heavy rains and flash flooding in September that left more than 300,000.
The country would experience a decrease in GDP of 32 percent by 2050 and 84 per cent by 2100 if there is no climate change.
The report covers two major negotiating blocs at United Nations climate talks that run through Friday: Alliance of Small Island States and Least Developed Countries (LDCs).
Storm surges that are worsened by rising seas are particularly dangerous for small island states.
The study does not consider adaptation measures, which could help to mitigate some of this damage.
To date, the contributions of rich governments to poor countries have been modest.
“Africa has done the least to cause climate change yet this report shows it will face the most severe consequences. That is deeply unjust,” said Mohamed Adow, director of Nairobi-based climate and energy think-tank Power Shift Africa.
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