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Scientists have struggled for decades to figure out how much Earth will heat up for a given amount carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This is known as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity – ECS. It is possible to frame it in the classic way: What happens if carbon dioxide levels are doubled compared to before the Industrial Revolution (280 parts per million). It is currently 415ppm.
The ECS has historically been calculated at 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. But, 25 scientists from around world recalculated this number using more data than previously available in July 2020. The ECS actually ranges between 2.6 to 3.9 degrees Celsius. This is a smaller range than it was before, and the lowest end is 1.1° higher. This means that the Earth will heat up faster than predicted if there aren’t serious mitigation efforts.
Based on current energy consumption trends and allowing for growth of renewables some estimates predict that the carbon dioxide concentration will reach 560ppm by 2050 (a doubling of 288) If we take the lowest end of the ECS range, it means that the global average surface temperature will rise by at least 2.6 degrees from the pre-industrial level by midcentury. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is a collection of studies by climate scientists around the globe, a 2.0 degree rise in global temperature would cause severe climate consequences and a collapse of civilization.
Editor’s note: Dan Lennon distilled this piece from Umair Irfan’s piece on Vox.com: Scientists have backed away from the worst-case climate scenario — and the best one too
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